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612. Lessons from Russia and the Future of Sanctions
- Author:
- Peter Harrell
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security
- Abstract:
- U.S. and European sanctions on Russia mark a significant evolution in the sanctions toolkit. Officials deployed novel types of financial and energy sanctions to create a regime that imposed significant costs on Russia while minimizing collateral impacts on the U.S. and European economies. The U.S. and European decision to create these new tools was driven by the need to take an innovative approach to sanctions against an economy twice the size of the combined gross domestic products (GDPs) of all other countries subject to significant U.S. economic sanctions and on Russian companies that play an important role in global markets. These developments, while tailored to Russia’s unique circumstances, hold important lessons for the future of sanctions policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Cold War, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Russia
613. Where the Lions Are: Gazprom's "Energetic Pliers" and Aspirations of a Eurasian Archipelago: The Geopolitics of Russia's Networked Energy Infrastructure
- Author:
- John Haines
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Book
- Abstract:
- In a recent essay, George Friedman wrote with admirable clarity about an intelligence truism that is at one and the same time elemental and frequently overlooked: “The entire principle of strategic intelligence is to ruthlessly discard the subcritical noise that is being collected in order to identify the center of gravity of events. A tiny hint may sometimes draw attention to a major process, particularly in military affairs. Finding that tiny hint, however, requires huge amounts of time and effort, and little time is left to understand the meaning. Moreover, in many cases, the process is in plain sight. The trick is to see it, and the even harder trick is to believe it.” With that charge, the objective of this essay is to look at Russia’s network of natural gas pipelines and ethnic enclaves in its near abroad in the interest of exploring whether and how the two intersect. The initial hypothesis is that ethnic separatism is instrumental to the former in two fundamental ways. First, these enclaves are located geographically along major energy pipeline routes, often at key junctures in pipeline networks. Second, they sit atop substantial shale gas reserves, the determined exploitation of which would decisively undercut Russia's natural gas oligopoly. They constitute specific, identifiable “spheres of privileged interests” in Russian foreign policy. The idea for this essay began with a conversation with a Moldovan diplomat about Transnistria, a separatist region of his country that has amassed a staggering debt—in excess of $5 billion—for the purchase of Russian natural gas. Russia's use of this debt to exert political pressure on Moldova is a story broadly understood.[4]
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Debt, Economics, Energy Policy, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Russia
614. The Silence of the Guns: Can the Cease-Fire in Donbass Last?
- Author:
- Stanislav Secrieru
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- For the first time since the outbreak of the war in Donbass, the situation on the frontline is nearly a proper cease-fire. This is the outcome of the interplay of three factors: the political-military balance in Donbass, sanctions and Russia’s military intervention in Syria. Nevertheless, it is premature to assume that military options in Donbass are no longer in the cards. Russia is likely to use force if needed to repel a Ukrainian attempt to retake parts of the area, to obstruct the Minsk process if it goes in a disadvantageous direction for Moscow, or to seize more territory if there is further political and social turmoil in Ukraine. To minimize the risks of an eruption of violence in Donbass, the EU and U.S. should prolong the sanctions, fine-tune the diplomatic pressure on both sides to implement and uphold the Minsk Protocols, and pay more attention to the political and economic transformations in the rest of Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Politics, Military Strategy, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
615. Azerbaijan’s Risky Game between Russia and the West
- Author:
- Kamran Ismayilov and Konrad Zasztowt
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Azerbaijan recently had to face a wave of criticism from the European institutions (the OSCE and the European Parliament) due to its government’s undemocratic practices. In response, Baku accused its European partners of Islamophobia and declared the suspension of parliamentary cooperation in the framework of the EU’s Euronest. The Azerbaijani ruling elite also blames the West of supporting a “fifth column” in Azerbaijan (meaning civil society organisations) as well as of giving political support to its arch-enemy Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. At the same time authorities in Baku are displaying their developing political partnership with Russia. This paper examines the consequences of the crisis in relations between the EU and Azerbaijan and Azerbaijani-Russian rapprochement for the prospects for EU-Azerbaijan energy projects and regional security in the South Caucasus.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Civil Society, Politics, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Azerbaijan
616. We Are Relevant, Influential and Respected
- Author:
- Sergey Ryabkov and Armen Oganesyan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- To get down to the facts, in April, Russia’s BrICs presidency got off to a flying start. Within two and a half months, a number of major BrICs related events took place in Russia. Furthermore, a major nonproliferation forum took place, a review conference in new York from late April until late May. this event is held once every five years. and I should also mention perhaps a series of very important, intense and constructive contacts at the top and other levels with the leaders of Latin american countries. This sets the current year apart from the previous year and the year 2013.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Welfare, International Security, and Financial Markets
- Political Geography:
- Russia
617. Relations Between Russia and Europe: No Simple Solutions in Sight
- Author:
- S. Karaganov
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Crisis between Russia and the West is associated with Crimea and Russia’s actions in Donbass and Ukraine; in fact, it has deeper roots while its long-term repercussions might prove to be much graver than expected. a large-scale armed clash cannot be excluded even if this possibility is gradually reducing; we should be ready to political confrontation and contracted economic ties. Today, Europe is facing an even greater threat: a civilizational divorce with Russia.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Economics, Armed Struggle, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea
618. Reconsidering the Greater Europe Concept in the Context of the Ukrainian Crisis
- Author:
- A. Kuznetsov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Ukrainian Storm of 2013-2014 pushed the world dangerously close to Cold War. The coup and the bloodshed which swept the country were caused by the refusal of the Yanukovich regime to draw closer to the EU no matter what rather than by the fairly acute social, economic and political disagreements inside the country. The consecutive packages of anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the European Union and coordinated, to a great extent, with the U.S. and several other non-european allies look very logical in the context of the stalled dialogue between the two key European players. it was in 2012-2013 that many of the expert community recognized an absence of a more or less noticeable progress in moving toward a visa-free regime between the EU and Russia and in settling other important bilateral issues for what it really was: the EU’s unwillingness to develop equal partnership with Russia rather than technical discrepancies (according to Brussels). Its attention was riveted to the Eastern Partnership program designed, among other things, to detach CIS countries from Russia and draw new dividing lines in Europe.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Armed Struggle, Sanctions, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
619. The Possibility of Military-Political Conflicts in the Former Soviet Union
- Author:
- D. Tsybakov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Former Soviet Union (FSU) remains a zone fraught with conflicts on the political map of the world. Political instability and festering disputes, including territorial disputes and disputes between political elites, prevail in many countries of the region. The developments in Ukraine show the realness of bringing into play the military factor to achieve political objectives. Russia and Ukraine, whose peoples have a shared common history over many centuries and who boast close cultural and economic links without precedent anywhere in the rest of the world, have nearly ended in the state of an armed conflict.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Politics, History, Military Strategy, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Soviet Union
620. The Hour of Truth: The Conflict in Ukraine–Implications for Europe’s Energy Security and the Lessons for the U.S. Army
- Author:
- Dr. Ariel Cohen and Ivan Benovic
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, a number of gas disputes between Russia and Central and Eastern European countries have unveiled the strategic dependence of Europe on Russian piped gas. The recent Ukrainian crisis demonstrated that Europe has a desperate need to improve the security of its gas supply. The United States is interested in the economic stability and growth of Europe, because the European Union (EU) is its principal and largest economic partner. The United States and the EU enjoy the largest trade and investment relationship in the world, which should not be jeopardized by disruptive, anti-status-quo powers. Europe’s energy independence is not only an economic interest of America, but also a political and security one. Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas undermines European unity and weakens the primary U.S. allies in their relations with Russia. U.S. Armed Forces in Europe and the U.S. Army in particular can and should play an important role in promoting energy security. This involvement includes: increased situational awareness; deployment to the sensitive areas; and enhanced training activities, including with the allies of the U.S. military in Central and Eastern Europe.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Military Affairs, and Gas
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Soviet Union