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292. The Geostrategic Arctic: Hard security in the High North
- Author:
- Harri Mikkola
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The end of the Cold War meant that the Arctic region lost most of its geostrategic relevance. However, due to growing great power competition, the Arctic is back on the geopolitical map. Hard security dynamics in the region are defined by two key elements: the importance of conventional long-range missiles and nuclear weapons for Russia, and the importance of the North Atlantic sea line of communication for European defence. Russia has revitalized its Cold War-era bastion strategy, which aims to ensure the survival of its strategic ballistic missile submarines. In a crisis scenario, this strategy could pose serious challenges to the Nordic countries as well. Five Arctic states are members of NATO and the Alliance’s collective defence is operational in the Arctic. Even if the Arctic is still not a focus area for NATO, the North Atlantic maritime domain is increasingly back on the agenda. Given the divergent strategic interests and lack of common ground between Russia and other Arctic states on grand strategic issues, the Arctic will not be losing its geostrategic importance anytime soon.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Canada, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Iceland, and Arctic
293. The Brain drain from Russia: The Kremlinʼs double-edged sword
- Author:
- Jussi Lassila
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The accelerated brain drain from Russia concretizes the failures of the Kremlinʼs authoritarian modernization and deepens the country’s longer-term problems. At the same time, the brain drain is reducing the regimeʼs political pressures to make the country more attractive to educated and internationally oriented citizens.
- Topic:
- Education, Globalization, Authoritarianism, and Modernization
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Asia
294. The end of nuclear arms control? Implications for the Nordic region
- Author:
- Tapio Juntunen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The current discussion on the possible repercussions of the INF crisis have largely concentrated either on great power relations or on the level of NATO-Russia relations and the future of the transatlantic ties. This Working Paper aims to broaden the present discussion by reflecting on the potential implications of the negative trends in nuclear weapons politics and arms control from the perspective of the Nordic region. One of the key concerns for the Nordic countries in this regard is Russia’s significant arsenal of non-strategic nuclear weapons in the immediate vicinity of the region. The prospect of a looming nuclear weapons buildup in the North Sea areas and around its key locations is also something that the Nordic countries should be concerned about together with their allies and key partners. The Nordic countries should also aim to increase their agency in relation to the stalling nuclear arms control agenda. In addition to supporting the efforts to open up different possibilities to salvage the INF Treaty, the Nordic countries also have self-interest when it comes to integrating other categories of non-strategic nuclear weapons into these discussions. Tapio Juntunen
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Nordic Nations
295. Regional elections in Russia: The Kremlin is tackling previous challenges while facing new ones
- Author:
- Jussi Lassila
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Kremlin is trying to learn lessons from old problems regarding its electoral authoritarian system, but new ones are constantly emerging. At the heart of these is the Kremlin’s party system.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Elections, Election watch, Local, and Party System
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe
296. Global Britain's Arctic security policy: Going forward while looking back
- Author:
- Agne Cepinsktye
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Britain’s Arctic security policy has been shifting from abandoning the region after the Cold War to developing a non-military security approach, to reintroducing the military defence dimension, most notably by the announcement of the UK Defence Arctic Strategy (DAS). These changes are both reactive to regional factors, namely the increasing geostrategic importance of the Arctic and Russia’s military expansion in the North, and reflective of the UK’s redefined post-Brexit identity as Global Britain. The focus on expanding the naval presence in the Arctic is consistent with the Global Britain vision, which underlies the UK’s broader foreign and security policy direction and emphasises the reassertion of naval strength and global maritime influence. While Britain’s ambition to restore the naval power in the Arctic and the North Atlantic is currently constrained by a lack of resources in the defence budget, it indicates an aspiration to strengthen historically rooted naval defence relations with the Arctic states.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Navy, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, and Arctic
297. US foreign policy tools in the era of disinformation: Deficiencies prevent effective response to malign information operations
- Author:
- Deborah A. McCarthy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Russia, China, Iran and ISIS use information operations to undermine the national security objectives of the United States and its allies. However, the US’s international response has been weak. Internal constraints have limited more effective counter-measures. In particular, the lack of a coordinated White House-level strategy, dispersed authorities and little cooperation with private social media companies can be identified as causal factors. Additional steps by the Trump Administration to counter foreign disinformation will aim to protect the 2020 presidential elections rather than to push back on efforts to undermine US leadership abroad.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, ISIS, Social Media, and Disinformation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and North America
298. Glitches in the Kremlinʼs politics of Fear: The dynamics of repression in Russia between 2012 and 2019
- Author:
- Jussi Lassila
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Along with Vladimir Putinʼs third presidential term, intensified repression has manifested itself in line with the countryʼs increasing economic challenges. The starting point for this political trend was the so-called Bolotnaya Affair in May 2012. Since then, the regime has tightened the screws: non-governmental organizations receiving foreign funding must register as ‘foreign agents’; there are numerous restrictions on the use of the internet, as well as conditions for organizing demonstrations. The regimeʼs policies aim to send signals to the rest of society about the serious consequences that unwanted political and civic activities might cause. However, measures become inflated when the repressive deterrent targets too many. By 2019, along with the changed social mood, unparalleled solidarity against repressive policies, particularly around the regional elections in Moscow, has forced the authorities to retreat from some of their initial repressive goals. The Kremlin duly has to re-evaluate the usage of its repressive deterrent against the political opposition and civil society.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Elections, Repression, Fear, and Opposition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe
299. Russia and China in the Middle East: Playing their best cards
- Author:
- Marco Siddi and Marcin Kaczmarski
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Russia and China share a number of interests in the Middle East: limiting US power and maintaining good relations with all players in the region while remaining aloof from the key conflicts, especially between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and Iran and Israel. Russia’s position has been based on political support for particular states, arms sales and the provision of civilian nuclear energy technology. Moscow has boosted its role by intervening militarily in the Syrian civil war. China has been strengthening its political position in the region for the last decade and its presence is more substantial from a financial-economic perspective. The current Chinese and Russian regional posture further marginalises the influence of the EU in MENA. In the Middle East, the EU is already a weaker economic actor than China and a weaker military player than Russia. However, the EU can cooperate with Russia and China on upholding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear programme.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Power, Military Intervention, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, and Asia
300. The Normandy Summit on Ukraine: no winners, no losers, to be continued
- Author:
- Arkady Moshes
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The French-German-Russian-Ukrainian top-level encounter could not and did not deliver a prospect of resolving the conflict in Donbas, but the limits of the possible are now clearer. No certainty, but the “draw” may push the parties closer to a sustainable ceasefire.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Humanitarian Intervention, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, France, and Germany