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1681. Russia and the EU Ten Years On: A Relationship in Search of Definition

Author:
Maurizio Massari
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Almost ten years have passed since the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) between Russia and the EU entered into force. The PCA, signed on June 1994, went into effect in December 1997 and will expire on 30 November 2007. Brussels and Moscow are now expected to take stock of what has been achieved in their relationship and agree on whether and how to update the PCA. While there has been significant progress in several areas of technical cooperation, the relationship has suffered from too many political ups and downs and a growing and mutual distrust. The failure at the 24 November 2006 Summit to agree on the launching of negotiations for a new comprehensive agreement – even though this was mostly due to a Polish veto – is however indicative of the patchy character of the EU-Russia relationship.
Political Geography:
Russia, Moscow, and Brussels

1682. Small is Feasible: Pondering the Future of EU-Russian Relations

Author:
Fabrizio Tassinari and Marius Vahl
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The European Union and Russia are preparing to negotiate a new comprehensive agreement at a time when their bilateral relations have become increasingly prickly. On the one hand, Vladimir Putin's Russia is perceived as having gone undesirably far in reverting to a semi-authoritarian state and in exerting economic and political pressures on some pro-Western, former Soviet states. On the other hand, the EU's Russia policy remains ambivalent because of the continuing deference towards Moscow of a number of large European countries and the confrontational posture of some new EU member states. Other factors add to this deteriorating state of affairs. For one, there are a number of legal complications coming from the shape and scope of the new agreement. Perhaps more importantly, there are several political uncertainties, first and foremost the definition of those "common values" upon which the new treaty should be based. To get out of this quandary, the two sides will have to scale down their ambitions on the new agreement. A mutually acceptable formula might imply the negotiation of a concise "framework" treaty, accompanied in due time by sector-specific agreements.
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Soviet Union

1683. The Turn to Statism in Russian Economic Policy

Author:
Philip Hanson
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Since 2003, state control in the Russian economy has increased significantly. This has affected mainly but not only the oil industry. This policy development gives some grounds for concern about Russia's long-run growth. Its origins lie in power struggles within the political elite, in efforts by members of that elite to enrich themselves and in a profound distrust on the part of that elite of any sources of power that they do not themselves control. One result is that business confidence has been dented, the growth of oil output has slowed, and future GDP growth depends more heavily than before on further growth in oil prices.
Topic:
Economics and Oil
Political Geography:
Russia

1684. Return to Heartland: Russia's Policy in Central Asia

Author:
Anna Matveeva
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Reversing the retreat of the Yeltsin era, Russia has returned to Central Asia proactively. Its presence is increasingly felt in the traditional - that is, security - field and in new fields of engagement, such as strategically-placed investment or construction of regionalism. The cultural and "civilisational" role has also gained more prominence. Moscow's policy reflects pragmatic opportunism, aimed at getting the utmost benefits for Russia from a region in which it holds many assets rather than at a revival of the former empire. There are limits however as to how far its engagement can go due to constraints posed by Central Asian realities and Russian domestic developments. So far, the advance has been greatly facilitated by the West's retreat, giving rise to perceptions of an unfolding "great game", while in reality a record of both competition and cooperation between Russia, China and the West is a normal state of affairs. Although Central Asian elites find it easier to deal with Moscow in the current political climate, they view its assertive role with caution and may turn to a rival suitor should the price for the relationship with Russia become too high.
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Central Asia

1685. Crony Capitalism and Democracy: Paradoxes of Electoracompetition in Russia's Regions

Author:
Gulnaz Sharafutdinova
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The phenomenon of crony capitalism has been explored primarily with reference to its impact on economic growth. This study investigates the political implications of crony capitalism and, specifically, the interaction between political competition and crony capitalism. Based on a case study of political trajectories in two regions of the Russian Federation, I argue that under crony capitalism political competition can undermine the legitimacy of state authorities and such democratic institutions as the electoral mechanism. Played out in public during electoral campaigns, unrestricted political competition uncovers the predatory nature of crony elites engaged in struggle for power and wealth. Paradoxically, the electoral process itself gets discredited as an essential part of the overall institutional order in the process. Noncompetitive political systems avoid such negative tendencies, at least in the short run.
Topic:
Democratization and Economics
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

1686. Central Asia and the Caucasus: A Vulnerable Crescent

Author:
Anna Matveeva and Thomas de Waal
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The Caucasus and Central Asia – eight countries of the former Soviet Union stretching to the south of Russia and to the west of China – form a chain of weak states, vulnerable to conflict, extremism, and spillover from potential instability in the Middle East, Iran and Afghanistan. Once on the path of the Silk Road, these countries are still transit routes in the world economy rather than major economic players. The overarching problem for the Caucasus countries situated on the eastern fringe of Europe – Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, as well as the Russian North Caucasus – is unresolved conflicts that hamper development and poison politics. The Caucasus has become a field for latter-day Great Power battles of influence, in which competing policy agendas, sometimes even from within the same state, make for a fragmented international response that hampers regional integration and development. The autocratic states of Central Asia by contrast risk isolating themselves from the wider world, becoming a source of danger because of their deliberate remoteness. Here the globalized threats of drug trafficking and militant Islam are the biggest potential source of instability. Multilateral organizations such as the UN are still struggling to articulate a coherent response to the two regions as a whole, tending to make more narrow interventions that have limited impact.
Topic:
Security and Development
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Central Asia, Asia, Soviet Union, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

1687. Foreign Military Bases in Eurasia

Author:
Zdzislaw Lachowski
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
On 16 August 2004 the President of the United States, George W. Bush, announced that some 60 000–70 000 US troops stationed in Asia and Europe would be returned to the USA over the coming decade. This realignment of forces signals a major change in US global and regional policies that will affect the structure of US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) base deployment (referred to as 'basing' or 'forward basing' by the military) throughout the world. In the 1990s Russia had begun pulling out of its cold war spheres of influence, but it either halted or began to reverse its base withdrawal process at almost the same time as Bush's plan was made known.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Eurasia, and Asia

1688. Building Stability in the North Caucasus: Ways Forward for Russia and the European Union

Author:
Neil J. Melvin
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The North Caucasus is a mountainous region in the south of the Russian Federation, bordered by the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov to the west, Georgia and Azerbaijan to the south, and the Caspian Sea to the east. In this Policy Paper, as in much policy discussion about current developments in the region, the term 'North Caucasus' refers to eight republics of the Russian Federation—Adygeya, Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Kalmykia, Karachai-Cherkessia and North Ossetia (Alania)—as well as the predominately ethnic Russian territories of Krasnodar krai and Stavropol krai.
Topic:
Islam and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, Caucasus, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

1689. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Author:
Pan Guang, Mikhail Troitskiy, Pál Dunay, and Alyson J. K. Bailes
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Established in 2001 with China, the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as members, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has remained one of the world's least-known and least-analysed multilateral groups. It makes little effort itself for transparency and is only patchily institutionalized in any case. Such useful research materials as are available on it are often in Chinese or Russian. Outside its participant countries, the SCO has attracted mainly sceptical and negative comment: some questioning whether it has anything more than symbolic substance, others criticizing the lack of democratic credentials of its members and questioning the legitimacy of their various policies. These points have been made especially strongly by commentators in the United States following the inclusion of Iran—along with India, Pakistan and Mongolia—as an SCO observer state and hints that it may attain full membership.
Topic:
International Cooperation and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Shanghai, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

1690. A Match made in Heaven? Strategic Convergence between China and Russia

Author:
Indra Øverland and Kyrre Braekhus
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper examines the strategic convergence between Russia and China. Strategic convergence is understood as the overlap of key objectives and interests with regard to long-term developments in world politics, which provides the basis for extensive tactical co-operation between two or more states. The paper focuses on the compatibility of Russia and China in terms of complementary economies, location and political outlook. The match between Russian natural resources and Chinese markets is examined in particular. The paper concludes that a closer relationship between the two countries in many ways would be of mutual advantage, but that it is far from certain that an alliance will develop.
Topic:
International Relations and Development
Political Geography:
Russia and China