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1551. Anatomy of a Fallacy: The Senlis Council and Narcotics in Afghanistan

Author:
Frédéric Grare
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Supplying the majority of the heroin consumed in Europe and nearly all consumed in Russia, Afghanistan's booming illicit drug market has not only entirely distorted the Afghan economy but also corrupted the country's nascent, fragile political system. While current norms regulating the production and traffic of illicit drugs have established the framework of an international prohibition regime, the policies associated with this regime have so far failed to stop or significantly slow the growing of Afghan opium. In 2005, in response to this situation, the Senlis Council, an international drug policy think tank, proposed the creation of a licensing system in Afghanistan which would allow the cultivation of opium for the production of essential medicines such as morphine and codeine. This system is intended to break the vicious circle of the drug economy by moving the opium trade into a legal system controlled by, and benefiting, the state. This paper adopts a critical view of the Senlis proposals, arguing that their underlying principles–economic, social and political–diverge only marginally from those underpinning previous approaches and have little potential for success under current political conditions. The paper concludes that, despite many imperfections, the current policies in place may be optimum given both Afghanistan's present situation and the structural problems inherent in the global war against drugs.
Topic:
Crime, International Law, and Markets
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, and Europe

1552. The BRICSAM Countries and Changing World Economic Power: Scenarios to 2050

Author:
Manmohan Agarwal
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Rapid economic growth in the large developing countries collectively known as BRICSAM (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Mexico) has the potential to change the balance of economic power in the world. This paper analyzes this potential building on developments in these economies over the past four decades in the context of the evolution of the world economy. This evolution has two significant features: increasing economic integration and a hiatus in growth. Increasing integration can be observed in the almost universal rise in the share of the exports of goods and services in GDP, and the increase in private capital flows. There has been a hiatus in growth since the 1973-1974 increase in the price of oil.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico

1553. Russia And The Post-2012 Climate Regime: Foreign Rather Than Environmental Policy

Author:
Anna Korppoo
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
According to the most recent government position, Russia is reluctant to accept binding greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments under the post-2012 regime that will succeed the Kyoto Protocol. Russia joined the Kyoto Protocol in anticipation of gains and made further demands in return for its ratification. The Kyoto Protocol was never seen as an environmental pact in Russia, but rather as a means of gaining economic and political benefits. The post-Kyoto deal will be entirely different for Russia compared to the Kyoto Protocol, as Russia would be expected to reduce its emissions in order to persuade developing countries to join. The main reason for Russia's reluctance is economic growth, which is expected to automatically lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions. However, this view is open to dispute. Climate change is not regarded as an acute environmental problem in Russia. Many Russian scientists believe that Russia could actually gain from climate change, and the IPCC is also predicting initial positive effects. A significant percentage of the Russian public does not approve of spending taxpayers' money on climate change mitigation, and due to the lack of democracy their views would not put pressure on the government's climate politics. As environmental concern cannot drive Russian participation in the post-2012 regime, it would be more productive to focus on the Russian interest in being recognised as an international actor, or on certain concrete policies such as energy efficiency, which carry some economic weight.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
Russia

1554. Russia's Politics Amidst the Global Economic Crisis An Empty Scoreboard?

Author:
Vadim Kononenko
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The global financial crisis has had both an economic and a political impact on Russia. Inasmuch as Russia's political system is infused with business interests and economic considerations, the crisis presents an external and unexpected challenge to the system in terms of rocking the balance between the elite groups. In effect, the crisis calls into question the assumption that the economic and social stability of the Putin years has been successfully sustained during Medvedev's presidency. The Kremlin's response to the rapidly changing situation has been essentially conservative and geared towards strengthening the regime rather than addressing the challenges stemming from the crisis. The anti-crisis measures that are being taken reveal that the government is relying on its finance reserves as the ultimate means to solve the problem rather than reforming state institutions. The president, the government and the key business groups have yet to define the terms of their relationship in the new situation. The plans to increase state control over companies as a means of tackling the crisis are problematic and likely to lead to an intensification of the struggle between the elites. At the same time, as the state takes on even more responsibility, the question of its efficiency becomes more pertinent in the crisis conditions. The return of Vladimir Putin as president remains uncertain despite the constitutional change initiated by Medvedev. His return becomes more probable if the crisis lingers and the overall situation worsens, thus prompting the return of the “national leader” to the driver's seat. The crisis alone cannot lead to major political or social turmoil or a regime change, but it nonetheless presents a major challenge for Russia in the short-term perspective. Ultimately, the outcome of the crisis will depend on how well the incumbent leadership is able to maintain a balance between tackling the crisis and protecting its own interests and legitimacy.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia

1555. Islamic Movements and Democracy in Central Asia: Integration or Isolation?

Author:
Anthony Bowyer
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
The Central Asian republics of the former Soviet Union have been independent for nearly seventeen years following seven long decades of communist rule in which their identities and traditions were altered through Sovietization and the Russification that preceded it. The region was divided into Khanates and Great Hordes, which had their first experience with Islam dating back to the 8th century, consolidated through successive invasions by Persians and Arabs from the fifteenth century onward, and formed the northernmost expanse of the Islamic world. The gradual encroachment of Imperial Russian influence, first eastward into Siberia, southward into the North Caucasus and later into the steppe of Central Asia and beyond, came about as a shock to the traditional lifestyles and power structures of the region. The establishment of Tsarist military outposts was accompanied by often brutal suppression of local populations including seizure of land and imposition of alien social values. No strangers to outside invasions, the people of Central Asia adapted as best they could under the circumstances, struggling to maintain their cultures and history but capitalizing on the positive elements that contact with the Russians brought, namely trade and infrastructure modernization. Acceptance of the Tsar's rule was not universal, and as of the late 19th century much of the region was not under the Tsar's control.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Government, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Caucasus, and Soviet Union

1556. Time for Change in Global Trade and Financial Governance

Author:
Barry Herman
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
Abstract:
The governance structures of the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and World Trade Organization are distinct, although the meetings of the leaders of the Group of 7 industrial countries (G8 including Russia on political matters) provide an opportunity to forge coherence at least with the interests of those countries. Sometimes heads of other countries are invited to meet on the fringes of the summits, but these consultations are hardly negotiating forums. This paper argues why this is no longer tenable, if it ever was, and how to go about building a more representative structure of global trade and financial governance.
Topic:
Globalization, Government, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia

1557. Regional Inequality and Convergence in Europe, 1995 – 2005

Author:
Arne Melchior
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The paper presents new results on within-country regional inequality in per capita income for 36 countries during 1995-2005; focusing on Europe but with some non-European countries included for comparison. In 23 of the 36 countries there was a significant increase in regional inequality during the period, and in only three cases there was a reduction. Regional inequality increased in all countries of Central and Eastern Europe, while for most Western European countries there was little change. For the EU-27 as a whole, there was a modest increase in within-country regional inequality, but convergence across countries. The latter effect was quantitatively more important, so on the whole there was income convergence in the EU-27, especially after 2000. Regional inequality is particularly important for some large middle-income countries such as China, Russia and Mexico. In such countries there may however be considerable price differences across regions, and the use of common price deflators for the whole country may lead to a biased assessment of regional inequality.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Social Stratification, and Sociology
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, and Mexico

1558. Whither Missile Defence?

Author:
F. Stephen Larrabee
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In the last eighteen months, missile defence has emerged as a controversial issue between the United States and its European allies. The administration's plans have provoked a major debate in Europe and the United States. Since the spring of 2007, however, the Bush administration has begun to develop a much more effective public outreach campaign designed to address public concerns. It has also sought to strengthen the link between its bilateral efforts at missile defence and those of NATO and made a number of important proposals designed to reduce Russian concerns.
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

1559. Medvedev's Russia and the Social Dimension

Author:
Paolo Calzini
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In recent years Russia has, thanks to the action of President Putin, witnessed a significant strengthening politically and economically. After years of crisis, this has finally ensured a condition of stability functional to the compromise that has arisen between the regime and society. The election of a new president, Medvedev, in March 2008, marks the beginning of a development phase that will be no less fraught with unknowns than the previous period and destined to create new challenges for the authorities, especially as concerns the social question, long kept on the margins of official policy. The operational plan for the social dimension envisaging a series of interventions aimed at solving the relative problems represents a commitment that could turn out to be crucial for the country's future.
Political Geography:
Russia

1560. New Man in the Kremlin: What Future for Russian Foreign Policy?

Author:
Nazrin Mehdiyeva
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The landslide victory of Dmitry Medvedev in the presidential election of 2 March was accompanied by discussions, particularly in Western analytical and media circles, of whether Vladimir Putin's successor is a democrat or nationalist, aWesterniser or a Slavophile. His pre-electoral policy statements and family life came under scrutiny and were weighed against Putin's warnings that for the West, Medvedev would be ''no easier'' to do business with than himself. While some did not hesitate to dub Medvedev a ''liberal'', others revelled in reports that suggested that the president-elect had been taking coaching lessons to imitate Putin's speech and gait, concluding with enviable confidence that he was ''less a pope than a popelet''.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Russia