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561. Buck Rogers or Rock Throwers?

Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
About 150 participants, including an international gathering of experts, examined whether and how technology may be leading to a paradigm shift in the nature and conduct of warfare, a shift that has been generally categorized as a "revolution in military affairs" (RMA).They concluded: The United States is the far—and—away leader in this drive. In fact, the United States is the only country intent on achieving a high technology RMA. No country is likely to match the United States in the broad—based technological sophistication of its military capabilitiesor even to try. US successes in developing RMA capabilities will drive potential adversaries toward asymmetric responses including weapons of mass destruction and information warfare. Some countries probably would be able to pose serious operational and strategic challenges to the United States by acquiring military technologies and capabilities that were in their eyes, "good enough." Also, countries can exploit "sidewise" technologies—old by US standards but still new to many other countries—to pose significant security threats and complicate US military operations. These technologies, if employed in a "novel" operational manner rather than high-end technologies, could drive development of the next RMA. Participants believe that—of the countries considered for discussion—China, Russia, India, and Australia have the greatest potential to achieve an RMA, should they decide to pursue the option.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, International Political Economy, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, and Australia

562. Federalism in Russia: How Is It Working

Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This conference was sponsored by the National Intelligence Council and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research of the US Department of State. John Battilega of the Science Applications International Corporation served as rapporteur. The views expressed in this conference summary are those of individuals and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia and United States

563. Organized Crime: Its Influence on International Security and Urban Community Life in the Industrial Cities of the Urals

Author:
Yuriy Voronin
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Russia is facing new difficulties as a result of negative processes in the economy, the deterioration of interethnic relations, and the social polarization of its society, which have created a direct threat to the security of the urban life in the country. This threat is a consequence of the increase in the proportion of the population living below the poverty line, the stratification of society into a small group of rich citizens and a vast majority of needy citizens, and the escalation of social tension, especially in the industrial cities of the Urals, Siberia, and other regions. At present there is a twenty-eight fold difference between the richest ten percent of the Russian population and the poorest ten percent. Although this unequal distribution of wealth is not very different from what existed in the pre-Revolutionary period in Russia, the striking discrepancy is shocking to a population that was accustomed to an ideological commitment to equality and -- despite the collapse of Communism -- continues to retain the socialist ideal of economic parity. Citizens perceive that they have been "robbed" of the assets that they were supposed to have inherited from the Soviet state. Ironically, the new holders of wealth are an alliance of former Communist Party bureaucrats, organized criminals, and dishonest businesspersons. This so-called "gangster industrial complex" is as oblivious to the needs of the people as was the former Soviet ruling elite.
Topic:
Security and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Russia and Asia

564. Barak's Complex Foreign Policy Agenda

Author:
Gerald M. Steinberg
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Prime Minister Ehud Barak will not get a period of grace or a post-election honeymoon. Immediately upon taking office, he faces a number of pressing issues. Many of these are domestic - including religious-secular relations and economic concerns.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

565. Russia—Caucasian Consequences

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Russia's military operations in the North Caucasus have, so far, received broad domestic support and enhanced the popularity of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. This stands in contrast to the 1994-96 conflict. The difference can be explained by the successful characterisation of the enemy as terrorists combined with the low level of conscript casualties. Moscow politicians have united broadly behind the military strategy, with opposition limited to extreme reformist groups. Two key consequences emerge from this situation. Firstly, Putin's political future is tied to the continued success of the campaign. Secondly, the nationalist fervour sparked by the conflict has reduced international investor confidence and led to domestic calls for increased defence spending.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Trade and Finance, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia and Caucasus

566. Russia—Dagestan Crisis

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The present incursion of Islamic rebels into Dagestan is not the prelude to a re-run of the Chechen war across the Russian periphery. However, it highlights Moscow's failure to adequately monitor developments in the North Caucasus region and the lack of military preparedness for dealing with internal rebellions. Despite the potential for increased violence, weak central government control is likely to prevail across the region, but only because for the majority of the local population, the alternatives appear even less palatable.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Islam
Political Geography:
Russia and North Caucasus

567. The Geopolitics of Energy Development in the Caspian Region: Regional Cooperation or Conflict?

Author:
Vadim Rubin
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation
Abstract:
The Caspian Basin has emerged in recent years as a major focus of international affairs for a combination of political, economic, and geostrategic reasons. In the immediate aftermath of the Soviet Union's dissolution in the early 1990s the region's newly independent states were overshadowed by Russia and attracted little Western and U.S. attention. But over the past several years this region has attracted growing attention from Western policymakers and scholars, as well as the media and the private sector. One of the main reasons for this new focus on the Caspian is its sizable energy reserves. In addition to its potential as a significant oil producer, however, it is also the Caspian's geostrategic location, its diverse mix of ethnic groups, and its unsettled intrastate and interstate conflicts that make it both an enticing and challenging region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Development, Energy Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Caspian Sea

568. Russian Federal Budget and the Regions

Author:
Alexei Makushkin
Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
In the period of the Soviet rule public finances formed the basis of the national economy and, consequently, were the key factor determining the relationship between the Central power and the regions. Beginning with the proclamation of the sovereignty of the Russian Federation in 1 99 1 the role of the Center and the regions changed. The State has reduced its influence on the national economy, largely due to the reduction of the share of the GDP reallocated through the Central budgetary system. In 1 999 the volume of the budgetary reallocated product made only 14- 1 5% of the total. The relationship between the federal budget and the system of the regional finances became very complicated and oblique. The state economic sector has decreased, power has become decentralized in Russia.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

569. EARLY RESPONSES TO EARLY CONFLICT WARNINGS IN THE CAUCASUS

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Over the past decade the South Caucasus region has faced bloody internal conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and to a lesser extent South Ossetia. It continues to display potential for instability as Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia exhibit the combined characteristics of war-torn societies and countries in transition. Given the geostrategic importance of the Caucasus and the strong interests of regional and international powers—particularly in the potential energy output—renewed armed confrontations would have serious economic, political and security implications across national borders. Moreover, spill-over into other volatile zones could bring about the open intervention of powerful neighbors, such as Iran, Iraq, Russia and Turkey, and could threaten larger peace and security arrangements.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Russia, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Asia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Abkhazia

570. Russia's Shrinking Role in the South

Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The perception that the disintegration of the Soviet Union constituted a major challenge to Russia's security is of a political and psychological, rather than an economic nature. The countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia—Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—are neither an irreplaceable resource base for the Russian economy nor the only available market for its non-competitive products. Any efforts to see it otherwise will induce the region to strengthen its economic and military security with the help of outside powers as a buffer against Russia's ambitions for greater control.
Topic:
Security and Economics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Kazakhstan, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Soviet Union, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Angola