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111. Economic Diplomacy in the Modern Geopolitical Context

Author:
Dmitry Birichevsky
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
ON SEPTEMBER 7, 1944, an economic department was formed at the People’s Commissariat for Foreign Affairs of the USSR, marking the beginning of modern Russian economic diplomacy. Over the course of its existence, the current Department of Economic Cooperation (DEC) of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has undergone numerous transformations, gradually expanding its functions as the foreign economic agenda has expanded and become more complex. The DEC is celebrating its 80th anniversary amid radical geopolitical changes that will shape the configuration of the future world order. This is a period of significant challenges and great responsibility, as well as remarkable opportunities. The current historical phase is marked by significant turbulence in the international relations system, as the collective West’s claims to civilizational exceptionalism have proven untenable and Western regulatory mechanisms have failed to ensure sustainable development of the global economy. The Western powers are attempting to maintain their dominance by systematically weakening potential rivals and securing a generally subordinate position for countries of the World Majority.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Integration, Economic Diplomacy, Multipolarity, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Global Focus

112. Perspectives for the War in Ukraine

Author:
Thomas Greminger
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
There is no doubt that the military aggression against Ukraine unleashed by President Putin on 24 February 2022 represents the most significant disruption of security and peace in Europe since the end of World War II. The war has far-reaching repercussions affecting practically every aspect of our lives and impacting far beyond the European continent. In this article, I will first briefly assess the situation on the battlefield. I will then offer a few scenarios for how the conflict could evolve in the coming months. Afterward I will mainly focus on what has been called “Plan B”-thinking in the expert community: What if the official narrative of both sides – a military victory – does not materialize? What if the parties, exhausted by a war of attrition, decide to return to the negotiation table – or the high-intensity warfare transitions to low-intensity conflict leading to a de facto cessation of hostilities? What could a negotiated or a de facto ceasefire look like? And what issues would have to be negotiated if – in the most optimistic scenario – the parties decide to proceed from a ceasefire to a conflict settlement process?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

113. The War in Ukraine: Reality Check for Emerging Technologies and the Future of Warfare

Author:
Jean-Marc Rickli and Federico Mantellassi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked the beginning of one of the most intense and brutal state-on-state conflicts opposing two modern militaries in recent memory. Despite Russia’s qualitative and quantitative advantages, Ukraine’s armed forces have so far put up strong resistance, foiling Russian plans of a quick victory and turning the conflict into a bloody war of attrition. Due to its scale and the nature of its belligerents, the conflict can provide us with a glimpse into what the future of warfare might look like and help us recentre the burgeoning conversation about the future of warfare in the current reality, especially as it relates to the presence and impact of emerging technologies. The war therefore offers us a way to understand how digital and off-the-shelf technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) impact conflicts of this scale and how relevant they are to current modern warfare. The war can also help us see how new actors become involved in warfare, what new means of influencing nation states are becoming available, and which new tools armed forces can use to affect battlefield outcomes. Importantly, it can help us gauge their importance relative to more traditional aspects of warfare. The analysis is structured in four main parts. This introduction is followed by a short contextualisation to situate the analysis in the wider conversation about emerging technologies and the future of warfare (Part 2). Part 3 provides a short overview of the conflict so far, dividing it into six phases. Part 4 surveys the main elements of the conflict in Ukraine, outlining what emerging technologies have been present and critically assessing their role in the war. Part 5 delves into some implications for the future of warfare that can be understood from the dynamics analysed thus far, especially as they relate to the place of emerging technologies in future conflicts and their role in determining battlefield outcomes. We argue that while some new technologies have come to characterise modern warfare, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict shows that many features of warfighting remain unchanged. Emerging technologies, such as AI and cheaper technological alternatives to traditional armaments, such as drones, are undoubtedly starting to change the battlefield and will play an increasingly larger role in future conflicts. Cyberspace and the globalised digital information space are bringing new actors and new means to exert influence, provide nations’ armed forces with new tools, and make battlefields increasingly globalised and complex. However, the conflict also shows that traditional aspects of warfare will not decrease in importance or be sidelined. Conflicts remain a contest of wills and adaptation, where ammunition supplies, the quantity of traditional armaments such as tanks, and both the number and quality of personnel and the logistical and organisational ability to bring all these elements to bear all remain the most important determinants of success. While technology is playing an increasing role in this equation, it remains unable to determine the outcome of a conflict on its own.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Drones, Artificial Intelligence, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

114. Russia Changes Its Nuclear Doctrine

Author:
Artur Kacprzyk
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The publication of Russia’s new nuclear doctrine is another in its attempts to intimidate NATO states, especially in order to discourage them from supporting Ukraine. Russia is lowering the declared threshold for the use of nuclear weapons and specifying additional situations in which it is to be possible. This does not mean, however, an increased danger of nuclear weapons use in the ongoing conflict. Russia is nonetheless likely to take further steps to heighten the fears of such a scenario among NATO governments and societies. At the same time, the document reflects the weakening of Russia’s conventional forces.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

115. Europe's defence against Russia

Author:
Elina Valtonen
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The large-scale offensive launched by Russia against Ukraine on 24 February 2022 marked a real turning point in the history of Europe. It radically altered the European security order, and there will probably be no turning back. The cooperative, treaty-based security order has been transformed into a system based on a balance of power, deterrence and containment[1]. By waging a brutal and illegal war against Ukraine, Russia's objectives have not changed. Its actions demonstrate total disdain for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of an independent neighbouring state. This Russian aggression, in flagrant violation of international law and the United Nations Charter, demonstrates Russia's determination to undermine the foundations of the European security order. There is nothing to suggest that, in the area of our common security, Russia will resume respect for existing treaties and commitments. It is becoming increasingly isolated from the international community. Its recent hybrid operation to redirect foreign nationals to Finland's eastern border is further evidence of this trend. Russia is and will remain on the doorstep of the European Union. It is essential that, on the international stage, the European Union continues to act resolutely and in a spirit of unity to stem Russian aggression, that it prepares for the future and that it invests in defence.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, Deterrence, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

116. The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24

Author:
John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
What more can US allies in Europe do to assist Ukraine militarily? More broadly, what can the United States expect from its closest allies in Europe in strategic competition with Russia and China? In this monograph, John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson assess whether US allies and partners in Europe can continue providing military assistance to Ukraine or expand assistance, while preserving their own national security and fulfilling their NATO commitments. They also explore what the Russia-Ukraine War reveals about the role of European allies in future iterations of strategic competition. Their findings indicate European allies remain firmly in support of assisting Ukraine politically, even if the reasons for allied support vary across Europe. Despite agreeing support is necessary, European allies face several hurdles on the path toward scaling up military assistance to Ukraine. The reasons for the hurdles vary, and some exceptions exist, but Deni and Aronsson find without continued, sustained US engagement, leadership, and presence in Europe, Washington may find itself with few European allies by its side. To facilitate and sustain continued success in transatlantic burden sharing, the authors provide several practical recommendations for US policymakers to consider.
Topic:
NATO, Military Aid, Allies, Russia-Ukraine War, Security Cooperation, and Burden Sharing
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

117. Satellites in the Russia-Ukraine War

Author:
Ron Gurantz
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Satellites and counterspace systems have shown themselves to be important parts of modern warfare in the Russia-Ukraine War but have also been subject to various restrictions to prevent escalation. This monograph examines the role of satellites and counterspace systems in the Russia-Ukraine War’s high-technology warfare and the effects of satellite proliferation and commercialization on the conduct of the war. It also analyzes the restrictions under which space-based capabilities have been operating and the implications of these limits for future conflicts—a subject that has received little attention. Relying on an exhaustive study of open-source material and the application of limited-war theory to the case of the Russia-Ukraine War, this monograph will help officials and strategists better understand the roles satellites are likely to play in future conflicts and the limits under which states will operate them as governments seek to gain military advantage and avoid escalation.
Topic:
Space, Escalation, Military, Russia-Ukraine War, and Satellites
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

118. On the Propaganda and Supply Fronts of the Russia-Ukraine War: North Korean Soldiers, Workers, and Munitions in the Donbas?

Author:
Avram Agov
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
In the past summer, there were reports about the possibility of North Korea (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, DPRK) providing 100,000 volunteers to fight with the Russian army in Ukraine as well as construction workers to help reconstruct war-torn areas in the Donbas. These reports, based on Russian sources, became fodder in the propaganda war in Ukraine and resonated in international media and the academic community. Western sources reported possible supply of North Korean munitions to the Russian army. This paper will critically assess the three reports in the context of wartime dynamics and in the wider international context. The feasibility of sending North Korean troops, munitions, and workers to Russia will be viewed in light of the latest wartime developments in both Ukraine and Russia, including the retreat of the Russian army in some of the occupied areas, Russian partial mobilization and the annexation of four Ukrainian regions. The international context of evaluation includes the recent history of Russia-North Korea security and economic relations. The essay will argue that sending North Korean soldiers to Ukraine is out of the question, though the dispatch of North Korean workers has some degree of probability. The likeliest possibility is Russian procurement of North Korean munitions.
Topic:
Propaganda, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, and North Korea

119. Russian Military Reconstitution: 2030 Pathways and Prospects

Author:
Dara Massicot
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As the Kremlin’s antagonism toward Ukraine and the West sharpens, it will be critically important for policymakers and warfighters to anticipate, monitor, and respond to Russia’s military reconstitution progress in the years ahead.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

120. The End of the Near Abroad

Author:
Thomas de Waal
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Putin’s war on Ukraine marks the end of the near abroad—the idea that Russia enjoys a special status in much of the post-Soviet space. But while Russia’s neighbors are seeking greater independence, they are not necessarily turning West.
Topic:
Democracy, Post-Soviet Space, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine