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242. Preserving Ukraine’s Independence, Resisting Russian Aggression: What the United States and NATO Must Do
- Author:
- Ivo Daalder, Michèle Flournoy, John Herbst, Jan Lodal, and Steve Pifer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- This report is the result of collaboration among scholars and former practitioners from the Atlantic Council, the Brookings Institution, the Center for a New American Security, and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. It is informed by and reflects mid-January discussions with senior NATO and US officials in Brussels and senior Ukrainian civilian and military officials in Kyiv and at the Ukrainian “anti-terror operation” headquarters in Kramatorsk. The report outlines the background to the crisis over Ukraine, describes why the United States and NATO need to engage more actively and urgently, summarizes what the authors heard in discussions at NATO and in Ukraine, and offers specific recommendations for steps that Washington and NATO should take to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses and thereby enhance its ability to deter further Russian aggression.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, America, and Ukraine
243. Russia in the Mediterranean: Geopolitics and Current Interests
- Author:
- D. Malysheva
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- ON JULY 26, 2015, President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin on board the frigate Admiral of the Soviet Navy Gorshkov endorsed a new version of the Maritime Doctrine of the Russian Federation, the basic document that specifies Russia’s naval and maritime policy. This version added the Mediterranean to the areas of the national maritime policy (the Atlantic, Arctic and Pacific zones) and specified that Russia’s naval pres- ence there is aimed at “turning it into the zone of military-political sta- bility and good-neighborly relations.”1 This is not fortuitous: The region is one of the main zones of Russia’s politics and international coopera- tion. Time has come to sort out regional developments, varied interests of the states involved and the problems they have to cope with. In other words, we should arrive at a clear idea about the region’s importance for the Russian Federation.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia
244. The Iran Nuclear Deal: A Monumental Mistake by the Obama Administration or a New Beginning?
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The nuclear deal reached between Iran and the P5+1, China, France, Germany, Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom, will be scrutinized by diplomats, military experts and politicians for months and years to come. Statesmen and politicians will interpret the deal differently and each will vie to use the argument which suites the audience and the domestic base she/he represents. However, the psychological, economic, political, and military implications of the deal on the United States, Europe and many Middle Eastern countries will be monumental. The deal will impact the balance of power in the Middle East and will change its dynamics forever, change the dynamics of the energy markets in Europe, Thus creating tension between Russia and Europe, and will ignite a fierce security debate between Democrats and Republicans in the United States on the culture of regime change and the use of force. The deal will bring the subject of regime change to the political forefront in the US and will raise a serious question on whether the use of force is the only effective mechanism to change the behavior of states in order to achieve favorable outcomes. Both Republicans and Democrats used force as a tool for regime change, however the Obama administration is a advocating for new means: diplomacy.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Regime Change, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany
245. Choosing our Geography: 12 Points to Restore Meaning to the Eastern Partnership
- Author:
- Elzbieta Kaca, Roderick Parkes, and Anita Emőke Sobják
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The EU is inevitably a geopolitical player, but it seeks to avoid fulfilling this role by all means. This has resulted in increased instability in the Eastern Partnership (EaP) region. In order to bring healthy political choices to its troubled eastern neighbourhood, the EU should follow a 12-point plan focusing on a more nuanced policy towards Russia, stronger regional ties between Eastern partners, tailored EU conditionalities and an integration approach better suited to EaP countries, as well as improving EU political capacities in the region.
- Topic:
- Self Determination, European Union, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
246. A New Paradigm of International Relations
- Author:
- A. Orlov
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- Today, we are watching how the present stage of world history is coming to an end amid great or even fundamental changes of the geopolitical picture of the world. The twenty-five-year-long partnership between Russia and the West (never easy and never straightforward), which began back in the last years of Soviet perestroika, has ended. It will be probably replaced with a new structure of international cooperation much more pragmatic and devoid of illusions and exaggerated expectations nurtured by Russia rather than the West. It is wrong to expect that when the situation in Ukraine has been stabilized (it will be stabilized sooner or later) the world (or at least the part which stretches from Vladivostok in the east to Vancouver in the west) will go back to its pre-crisis state. There is no way back. The old bridges were burned while new bridges have not yet been built. The paradigm of world development geared at the prospects of long-term partnership (which, for a long time, had looked the only option) was destroyed.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Politics, History, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
247. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Current Situation, Consequences, Prospects
- Author:
- Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- National Security and Defence
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- On 27 January 2015 the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted the Resolution “On the Appeal of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine to the United Nations, European Parliament, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, NATO Parliamentary Assembly, OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, GUAM Parliamentary Assembly and national parliaments of the countries of the world on the recognition of the Russian Federation as an aggressor state”. It is stated in the document that “Ukraine remains the target of military aggression by the Russian Federation, which the latter carries out, among other things, by supporting, and providing supplies for large-scale terrorist attacks. … taking into account the provisions of the UN Charter and UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 ‘Definition of Aggression’ dated 14 December 1974, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine recognises the Russian Federation as an Aggressor State…”.1 This Appeal defines the current situation and character of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the reason and source for which is Russia’s expansionist policy in the post-Soviet area, which the Russian Federation, represented by its current leadership, considers its “zone of privileged interests”. This forms the basis for Russia’s hard pressure on Ukraine to integrate into Eurasian alliances under the auspices of the Russian Federation (RF), and blocking Kyiv’s course towards European and Euro-Atlantic integration. Such policy, as implemented by Russia since the beginning of 2000, did not involve establishing real partner relations between Moscow and Kyiv on the basis of parity and equality, – its goal was to turn Ukraine into a controlled state, which would operate in the framework of Russia’s policy. Russia’s geopolitical plans regarding Ukraine were ruined in February 2014. In return, Putin’s regime resorted to outright aggression against Ukraine – in March 2014 Crimea was annexed, later began the military expansion in Eastern Ukraine. This “undeclared” or “hybrid” war of Russia against Ukraine has now lasted for almost a year; during this war Ukraine has suffered large-scale human, territorial and economic losses. A critical outcome of this war is mutual estrangement of both countries’ societies. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is not a “local”, “peripheral” event, – it has regional and global dimension, and contains challenges and threats to the global security system. Annexation of Crimea, the situation in Eastern Ukraine are turning into a large-scale “frozen conflict”, which is a threat to security and stability not only on the European continent, but in the world at large. Leading Western countries and international organisations have not recognised the annexation of Crimea, thus, demonstrating political and diplomatic solidarity with Ukraine; have supported Ukraine in its battle against Russian aggression in Donbas. Ukraine has received considerable external financial and material-technical support. “Restraining” sanctions against Russia have been implemented. Currently, Ukraine is in the epicentre of critical West-Russia confrontation, which is characterised by an unprecedented loss of mutual trust. Ukraine-Russia relations are in a critical and unpredictable state. The political and diplomatic confrontation is ongoing; fundamental agreements and arrangements have been violated; the system of institutional interstate relations has been practically shattered; confrontation in the sphere of economy and energy sector is exacerbating, informational aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine continues. In general, current events give no reason to expect changes for the better in Russia’s policy towards Ukraine in the foreseeable future. Thus, the current state of Kyiv-Moscow relations demands creating fundamentally different conceptual and strategic approaches to co-existence with Putin’s Russia, a review of international contacts system, introduction of specific measures towards Russia.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea
248. Multipolarity is key: Assessing Azerbaijan's foreign policy
- Author:
- Djan Sauerborn, Bastian Matteo Scianna, and Marius Mazziotti
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- This paper seeks to outline how Azerbaijan should manage the numerous foreign policy challenges it faces due to its strategic location, wealth in resources, neighbors and surrounding conflicts. As a small state, Baku should seek to balance interests and pursue a path of multipolarity, without however forfeiting a strong stance towards governments that threaten its status quo. Russia, Turkey, Iran, Israel and the West all have their interests and Azerbaijan has to become a pawn in the hands of the powerful. The resolution of the “frozen conflict” over Nagorno-Karabakh would mark a great step in the right direction, providing Baku with more leverage. The economic power of Azerbaijan gives the South Caucasian Republic a unique asset and allows Baku to play a balancing role regarding conflict prevention and conflict solution in this region which is often described as a geopolitical chessboard.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Multipolarity
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus
249. Bridging a (Mis)perceptional Gap: The EU's Eastern Partnership and Russian Policies in the Trans-Caucasus
- Author:
- Alexander Sergunin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
- Abstract:
- The launch of the EU’s Eastern Partnership in 2009 has puzzled both Russian decision-makers and experts. To the date they cannot arrive to any specific conclusion: whether this project is another geopolitical challenge to Russia’s domination in the post-Soviet space or a potential platform for cooperation both with the EU and countries of the region? The author believes that regardless numerous misunderstandings and misperceptions there is a ‘window of opportunity’ for the EU, Russia and Trans-Caucasian countries to develop a joint cooperative strategy.
- Topic:
- European Union, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Soft Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Caucasus
250. Between TAP and Nabucco: Who is the “WINNER”? Azerbaijan or Russia?
- Author:
- Ilgar Gurbanov
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
- Abstract:
- Today, every new pipeline changes the market and geopolitics of region. Two months ago, the final decision made by Shah Deniz Consortium, surprised many people. The competition for which pipeline will deliver Azeri gas to Europe is “Almost” over. Although Nabucco-West was strongly and diplomatically supported by European Union and United States, Shah Deniz Consortium opted Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) which will be connected with Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) at Turkish-Greek border. This decision totally paralyzed Nabucco-West pipeline project. Two shareholders of Shah Deniz consortium – BP and Statoil - fully supported TAP. Because, “under agreements signed with TAP during 2012, the Shah Deniz Consortium shareholders BP, SOCAR and Total hold options to acquire a combined 50% of TAP’s shares, thereby contributing to TAP’s construction costs.”
- Topic:
- Markets, Geopolitics, and Pipeline
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Central Asia, Eurasia, and Azerbaijan