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1. Russia’s Influence and Disinformation Campaign in Armenia

Author:
David A. Grigorian
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Often-overlooked developments in Armenia show how Western policy makers are failing to recognize and counteract the growing sophistication of Russia’s propaganda machine. There is much the West can do. Intelligence authorities can start sharing more information about Russia’s influence operations. We need media that can report with more knowledge from the region. Working more closely with the pro-Western opposition, Brussels and Washington, D.C. can help shape an agenda that is not just offering better conditions for Armenia but also leads to more credibility in a Western-oriented agenda. Finally, it is important for the West to acknowledge their own blunders over the settlements between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which led to continued ethnic cleansing.
Topic:
Propaganda, Disinformation, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:
Russia and Armenia

2. General elections 26 October in Georgia: a referendum on Europe?

Author:
Elise Bernard and Vincent Godbillon
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The general elections in Georgia on 26 October will clearly determine the autocratic or democratic future of the country. President Salome Zourabichvili[1] considers these elections to be a referendum for a “European, democratic, independent Georgia, or a Georgia led by an authoritarian, isolated Russia”. Meanwhile, Georgian Dream, which holds a small majority in the Assembly and presents itself as ‘social-democratic’, is increasingly seen as Russia's Trojan horse[2]. Led by Bidzina Ivanishvili[3], it appears to be implementing a strategy of systematically blocking Georgia's accession to the European Union, despite its supposedly favourable label. The prospect of these elections appears to have accelerated this methodical undermining, especially since Georgia was granted candidate country status by the European Council in December 2023. On 9 October, at the start of the new legislature, the European Parliament adopted, a resolution by 495 votes, calling on the European Union and its Member States to hold to account and impose personal sanctions on all those responsible for undermining democracy in Georgia[4], including Bidzina Ivanishvili. The European Union has already frozen 30 million € of the European Peace Facility.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Referendum, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Georgia

3. The Devil's Advocate: An Argument for Moldova and Ukraine to Seize Transnistria

Author:
Anthony II. Roney
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
This article outlines the policy suggestion for Moldova and Ukraine to bilaterally invade the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) to strengthen their respective national security interests. The article examines the historical background of Moldova and the PMR, otherwise known as Transnistria, to provide context for the relationship between the two actors. As the PMR has acted as a tool of covert foreign influence for Russia, it is recommended that Moldova and Ukraine act now to eliminate the risk of Russian influence and interference from posing a larger threat in the future for these states. This article conveys the reasons, risks, and benefits for a joint invasion of Transnistria. It details the justifications for such a proposed action, but it also outlines its possible consequences. The policy suggestion is further justified when viewed under the lens of defensive realism, contrasted with Russia’s aggressive expansionist actions under President Vladimir Putin. Finally, the article gives basic strategic and tactical suggestions on how to accomplish this task.
Topic:
Conflict, Military, Defensive Realism, Foreign Influence, and Offensive Realism
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, and Transnistria

4. Beyond Sputnik and RT: How Does Russian Soft Power in Serbia Really Work?

Author:
Vuk Vuksanović
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
Public opinion in Serbia and Russian soft power are some of the topics of the BCSP analysis written by BCSP Senior Researcher Vuk Vuksanović, President of the International Advisory Committee Srđan Cvijić and BCSP Visiting Fellow Maksim Samorukov. In 2022, as part of the public opinion survey, the Open Society Foundation (OSF) and Datapraxis collected data from 22 countries for the purpose of the report entitled “Fault Lines: Global Perspectives on a World in Crisis”. The Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP) had exclusive access to the said report and was able to analyse it. In autumn 2022, BCSP conducted its own public opinion survey on the Serbian citizens’ perception of the country’s major foreign and security policy issues. The “Fault Lines” survey established that Serbia is much different than any other country involved in the survey, including those that generally subscribe to the Russian narrative concerning the Russia-Ukraine war. The BCSP survey applied an even more granular approach to how Russian popularity in Serbia is manifested and how deeply it is entrenched. Based on the research findings, it can be concluded that soft power is a major element of the Russian presence in Serbia. However, the catch is that Russia’s soft power in Serbia is not operating based on the traditional definition of the term, derived from the attractiveness of a political and social model, but rather on the fact that the majority of the public in Serbia sees Russia as an alternative to the West, by which it feels betrayed, abandoned and never fully accepted. This has resulted in the enormous popularity of Russia, which is now a major impediment for Serbia joining the EU sanctions against Moscow or any overt anti-Russian policies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Soft Power, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Serbia