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11. Ukraine-Russia Relations in the Energy Sector: Status, Recent Development Trends, and Prospects

Author:
Yevhen Shulha
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Separation of Ukraine-Russia bilateral relations in the energy sector is rather conventional, since they objectively fit into the relations of both countries with a third party – first of all, countries of Europe (in particular, the EU) as consumers of energy resources transported across the territory of Ukraine. Therefore, both from the viewpoint of the process chain (producer – transit state – consumer) and from the economy viewpoint (seller – provider of transportation services – buyer) those relations should be viewed in a trilateral format.1 More than that, it may be argued that problems stockpiled in that sector of relations between Ukraine and Russia and in Europe in general may be solved solely in such trilateral format.2 On the other hand, since early 2000s Russia has been insistently pursuing a policy translating relations with partners in the energy sector into a bilateral format where it is usually stronger and uses that advantage to defend and promote its interests and/or the interests of its state monopolies and separate financial-industrial groups. That is why there are grounds to view the Ukraine-Russia relations in the energy sector as bilateral, but with account of presence of a third party there, first of all, the EU, as Ukraine declares its integration in it and is now engaged in formulation of common norms and rules of the European energy markets. This section briefly outlines interim results and problems of the Ukraine-Russia relations in the oil, gas and nuclear sectors – more interrelated and interdependent than other domains of the energy sector.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Oil, Bilateral Relations, Nuclear Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

12. Ukraine-Russia: from crisis – to effective partnership

Author:
Maryna Melnyk
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Today, the Ukraine-Russia relations are in a critical state. Conflicts are on the rise in the key fields of cooperation – political, socio-economic, humanitarian. A number of problems complicating bilateral contacts actually remain “frozen”. The parties’ positions divided on a number of key foreign policy issues, the geopolitical orientations of Ukraine and Russia are totally different. The process of estrangement of the state and political elites of the two countries goes on, while the political-diplomatic dialogue acquired numerous traits of mutual accusations and demarches. The intensity of bilateral contacts between representatives of the political establishment, expert communities, business circles, academic communities and the public notably goes down. Numerous declarations of Kyiv and Moscow of “normalisation, rationalisation, de-politicisation” of relations did not lead to success. Probably, the most alarming is that the recent years saw deterioration of relations between citizens of the two countries. Sociologists record growth of estrangement, prejudice, enmity. This trend witnesses the threat of breakup of traditional socio-cultural ties of the two countries. Such processes and trends give grounds to note a systemic crisis in the Ukraine-Russia partnership, unreadiness of the parties for positive reformatting of cooperation. The atmosphere of relations was strongly undermined by the conflict in the Caucasus (August 2008) that affected the security architecture on the regional and global scale, the Ukraine-Russia “gas war” of January 2009, which involved countries of the European continent. Escalation of conflicts poses a double-edged threat, devaluates “geopolitical assets” of both countries. For Russia, there is a threat of staying an unpopular regional power player overburdened by the post-imperial syndrome, with inadequate claims of control of the post-Soviet space. For Ukraine – a threat of staying in a state of uncertainty, transition, in the “grey zone” of collision of interests of the West and East. Unfortunately, there are grounds to suggest that in the near future, the character of bilateral relations will not fundamentally change. Another “unfriendly pause” arose in the dialogue of Kyiv and Moscow, most probably, in connection with the forthcoming presidential elections in Ukraine. What is also evident is that such state of affairs does not meet the national interests of both Ukraine and Russia, aggravates the regional situation, complicates contacts of the two countries with the European community, NATO, and the USA. There is no alternative to establishment of good-neighbourly partnership between Ukraine and Russia. Such partnership should rest on the European norms and rules, parity and mutual benefit, transparency, mutual respect of the sovereignty and territorial integrity, consideration of each other’s interests,
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

13. Topical problems in social relations in the AR of Crimea

Author:
Maryna Melnyk
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The AR of Crimea is a special region of Ukraine, not only because of its autonomous status, but also thanks to its unique historic and cultural heritage, ethnic composition of the population, geopolitical situation. It may be said without exaggeration that the ability to integrate Crimea into the pan-Ukrainian political and socio-cultural space presents a key test of maturity and effectiveness of the Ukrainian state. This determines the extreme importance of Crimean segment in the Ukrainian policy. But unfortunately, there are no grounds to claim serious success in that domain; rather, things are developing in the opposite direction. It may be stated that the socio-political situation in the AR of Crimea, after the relative stability of late 1990s – early 2000s, has deteriorated lately. In the result of serious political contradictions, deregulation of the executive branch, lack of system and consistency in the Ukrainian state policy regarding Crimea, interaction between the republican and central authorities in some sectors is far from standards of constructive cooperation, which leads to continual nonexecution or even open obstruction of decisions of the central authorities dealing with Crimea. This brings to light drawbacks in the effective legislation describing the rights and powers of the AR of Crimea, regimenting the autonomy’s relations with Kyiv, presentation and defence of its interests in the supreme bodies of state power. Meanwhile, radical, first of all – pro-Russian public and political forces stepped up their activity in Crimea, manifested, in particular, in stronger opposition to actions of the state authorities aimed at rapprochement with Euro-Atlantic structures, and in moral support for Russia and its Black Sea Fleet during the armed conflict with Georgia in August 2008. The problems of amenities for and social rehabilitation of repatriates, first of all – representatives of Crimean Tatars, are far from final solution. Despite the deep study of those problems by the Ukrainian authorities and representative bodies of the Crimean Tatar people, full mutual understanding between its political leadership and the state authorities in the issues of restoration of economic, social, cultural and political rights of the Crimean Tatar people, definition of its place in Ukraine’s legal framework and its state system is still absent. Given the evident deficiency of means of protection of collective interests available to Crimean Tatars, this undermines trust in the authorities, both Ukrainian and Crimean, and deteriorates inter-ethnic relations in Crimea. The absence of strategic approaches of the Ukrainian authorities to comprehensive solution of Crimean problems, prevalence of the policy of situational response to separate problems or their neglect have an effect on the public consciousness of the Crimean residents in the form of growth of separatist and irredentist spirits, unpopularity of the prospects of further development of Crimea within the constitutional framework of Ukraine. External influences on the situation in the AR of Crimea in economic, political, religious and information sectors are growing. Not all of them may be termed negative, but many of them are designed to entirely cut Crimea from Ukrainian political and socio-cultural space or to make the latter a factor of political and cultural disintegration of the Ukrainian society and state. Against that background, Crimean society witnesses processes of transformation, in particular, consolidation of the main ethnic groups by socio-cultural features, growth of competition among them in the political, socioeconomic and symbolic domains. Evolution of relations among the most numerous Crimean socio-cultural communities towards aggravation of contradictions will threaten the socio-political stability of not only Crimea but Ukraine as a whole, give a pretext for interference of outside forces in its internal affairs, moreover, given the precedents of implementation of similar political scenarios. Study of the situation in the AR of Crimea, identification of factors influencing it and search of ways of the most optimal solution of the existing problems are all covered by the Ukrainian-Swiss project “Socio-political, inter-ethnic and inter-confessional relations in Crimea –state, problems, ways of solution”, jointly implemented by Razumkov Centre and University of Basel’s Europainstitut.
Topic:
Demographics, Culture, Autonomy, and Identity
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea