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82. Four Scenarios for the Crisis in Belarus
- Author:
- András Rácz, Cristina Gherasimov, and Milan Nič
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- As protests continue to galvanize Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko is consolidating his grip on power. Volatile domestic dynamics – and Russia’s reactions to them – will shape the discredited regime’s future. This paper outlines four possible scenarios for Belarus up to one year from now. They include options for Russia and the EU, whose strategic objectives differ, but whose short-term interests align: preventing bloodshed, avoiding open geopolitical conflict, and preparing for a post-Lukashenko transition.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, European Union, Geopolitics, Protests, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Belarus
83. Connectivity in Eurasia: Geopolitical Chances for the EU
- Author:
- Jacopo Maria Pepe
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- As the coronavirus pandemic fuels technological and geopolitical competition among the great powers, Europe’s relations with China and Russia are facing new challenges and risks. Still, the reconfiguration of power in Eurasia also brings unexpected opportunities for European actors in the area of connectivity. To seize them, the EU needs to reconcile its aspiration to be a globally accepted “normative-regulatory” power with both its limited financial means and its more assertive attitude to geopolitics.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, European Union, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, and Asia
84. Moldova in the EU's Eastern Partnership: Lessons of a Decade
- Author:
- Martin Sieg
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- In Moldova, the weakness of the Eastern Partnership has been over-reliance on incentives, rather than a lack thereof. Veto players who hid their true interests by claiming allegiance to the European cause hijacked the EU’s soft power. The EaP’s shortcoming was lack of means and readiness to make these key opponents of political reforms keep their commitments. Its core challenge is how to overcome the resistance of these veto players who have been obstructing transformational goals.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, European Union, Partnerships, and Oligarchy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Moldova, and Eastern Europe
85. The End of German Ostpolitik: What a Change in Germany’s Russia Strategy Might Look Like
- Author:
- Stefan Meister
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
- Abstract:
- Relations between the European Union (EU) and Russia have hit a new low after the attempted poisoning of Alexei Navalny and the Kremlin’s continued support for Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, despite massive electoral fraud in that country. A new Russia policy in Berlin will require a paradigm shift, using incentives and leverage to improve Germany’s negotiating position with Moscow. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline project should be under intense scrutiny. If Moscow shows itself unwilling to cooperate, construction should be stopped.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Germany
86. Mongolia's Response to Increasing U.S.-China-Russia Rivalry in Asia
- Author:
- Alicia Campi
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Dr Alicia Campi, President of the Mongolia Society, explains that “The [“Third Neighbor”] policy was reinterpreted in content and meaning to include cultural and economic partners as diverse as India, Brazil, Kuwait, Turkey, Vietnam, and Iran. With increased superpower rivalry in its region, Mongolia has expanded this basic policy.”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Partnerships, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Turkey, India, Mongolia, Asia, Kuwait, Brazil, North America, and United States of America
87. Trump's troops: Not just US soldiers – NATO's soul is also moving east
- Author:
- Vibeke Schou Tjalve
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- A strategic and ideological alliance has emerged between the American and Central Eastern European Right. Replacing Berlin with Warsaw and Budapest may have profound implications for policy, and for NATO’s consensus on Russia.
- Topic:
- NATO, Alliance, Ideology, and Radical Right
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Germany
88. US Experts Consider China a Shifting and India a Stable Friend to Russia
- Author:
- Arik Burakovsky, Dina Smeltz, and Brendan Helm
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- With both Russia and China facing increasingly confrontational relations with the United States, the two countries have increased ties with each other and have pursued similar approaches in opposition to the US government concerning Iran, Syria, and Venezuela. Steve Biegun, US Deputy Secretary of State, recently characterized the developing relationship between Russia and China as one built on “mutual determination to challenge the United States.” To better understand how experts think about Russia’s relations with the other great powers, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs recently conducted a survey of 201 American experts on Russia. The survey finds that a majority describe the relationship between Russia and China today as one of mostly partnership. They also describe India as primarily a partner to Russia, both today and in the future. By contrast, they say that Russian relations with the United States and the European Union are mostly competitive. But they anticipate that in 20 years, rivalry between Russia and China will grow, perhaps creating space for reducing tensions with the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Power Politics, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, North America, and United States of America
89. US Experts Anticipate Future Decline for Russia Among the Great Powers
- Author:
- Arik Burakovsky, Dina Smeltz, and Brendan Helm
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- US Experts Anticipate Future Decline for Russia Among the Great Powers OCTOBER 6, 2020 By: Arik Burakovsky, Assistant Director, Russia and Eurasia Program, Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy, Tufts University; Dina Smeltz, Senior Fellow, Public Opinion and Foreign Policy; Brendan Helm, Research Assistant Although President Trump initially hoped for improved relations between the United States and Russia, during his tenure the US government has overtly declared Russia a top threat to US national security. Congress and the administration widened Obama-era sanctions against Russia after alleged Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. Data from a recent survey of American experts on Russia, conducted by The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs paints Russia as a declining power. The results show that while experts anticipate changes in the global balance of power in the next 20 years, with China overtaking the United States, they do not expect Russia to come out stronger over that time frame. Experts draw attention to Russia’s cracked economic and political foundation in the present and its likely decline over the next two decades due to economic mismanagement and faltering soft power. Now there are the lingering economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic to add to this list.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Power Politics, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, North America, and United States of America
90. Terrorism in Afghanistan: A Joint Threat Assessment
- Author:
- Teresa Val
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- Terrorism in Afghanistan: A Joint Threat Assessment is intended to serve as an analytical tool for policymakers and an impetus for joint U.S.-Russia action. The report provides an overview of the security situation and peace process in Afghanistan, taking into account U.S. and Russian policies, priorities and interests; surveys the militant terrorist groups in and connected to Afghanistan and explores the security interests of various regional stakeholders vis-à-vis Afghanistan. Challenges relating to border management, arms trafficking and terrorist financing in Afghanistan are also briefly addressed.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, and North America