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41. What majority coalition is possible in Poland following the parliamentary elections on 15 October?

Author:
Corinne Deloy
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On 8 August, the President of the Republic, Andrzej Duda (PiS), announced that the next parliamentary elections in Poland would be held on 15 October next. The Polish people will be called upon to renew the 460 MPs of the Sejm, the lower house of parliament, and the 100 members of the Senate, the upper house. Poland has been governed since 2015 by the Law and Justice party (PiS). Mateusz Morawiecki has been Prime Minister since 2017. Jaroslaw Kaczynski, a member of the Sejm who is considered to be the country's true leader, recently returned to the government because of divisions and tensions in his camp, according to political scientist Kazimierz Kik. In 2015, the PiS formed the "United Right" coalition with Poland's outgoing justice minister, Zbigniew Ziobro, and a number of independent figures, which is in the running for the 2023 elections. It hopes to win a third term at the head of the country, which would be a first in the history of democratic Poland. PiS can count on a solid electoral base, particularly in the medium-sized towns and villages in the south-east and centre of the country. Civic Platform (PO), the main opposition party led by former Prime Minister (2007-2014) and former President of the European Council (2014-2019) Donald Tusk, appeals to voters in large cities and to people who are tired of the PiS's intransigence, particularly on societal issues, and worried about Poland's isolation on the international stage. According to the opinion poll carried out by the IBRIS/Onet institute on 13 September, the United Right coalition is expected to come out ahead in the elections with 33.3% of the vote, outstripping the Citizens' Coalition, organised around Civic Platform and 3 other parties - Modern, The Greens (Z), Polish Initiative (iPL) - which is expected to win 26.4% of the vote. The Left, which comprises several parties, is expected to come third with 11.1%. The Third Way coalition (Trzecia Droga), which includes two centrist parties (Poland 2050 and the Polish Coalition), is forecast to win 10.2%, just ahead of the Freedom and Independence Confederation, an ultra-nationalist and liberal party, with 11.1%. On the face of it, neither the United Right coalition nor the Citizens' Coalition would be able to secure an absolute majority in the Sejm. There is a very real risk that the parliamentary ballot will result in a "hung parliament", as was the case after the elections on 25 October 2015, which led to new parliamentary vote being held in 2017. Inflation and the cost of living are the most important issues for the majority of Poles (35%), followed by national security (22%).
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

42. The importance of the United States in Poland’s military security policy in the context of the war in Ukraine

Author:
Łukasz Jureńczyk
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The subject of the article is the importance of the United States in Poland’s military security policy in relation to the war in Ukraine. The article begins with an introduction discussing its main assumptions and a synthetic historical background of the importance of the US for Poland and its security. The main part of the article is divided into two parts, the first one discussing the importance of the US in Poland’s military security policy after the Cold War. The second part is devoted to the change in the importance of the US in this policy in connection with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the main factors that determine this change. The aim of the article is to identify and analyze the changes in the importance of the United States in the Polish military security policy as a result of the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022. The main research problem is whether the importance of the US in Poland’s military security policy increased as a result of the war, and if so, because of what main factors? The thesis of the article states that the war in Ukraine increased the importance of the US as the main external guarantor of Poland’s security and defense. This is due to the leading role played by the United States in military support for Ukraine and strengthening NATO’s eastern flank, including Poland, in the absence of leadership from Western European powers. The research included interviews with scientists and analysts from research centers in Washington and New York.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Poland, and United States of America

43. Non-governmental assistance to Ukrainian refugees by Polish society in the aftermath of the escalation of hostilities in 2022

Author:
Katarzyna Maciejewska-Mieszkowska
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The full-scale war in Ukraine caused the largest refugee crisis in Europe after World War II. Poland was the initial destination for people fleeing the war, causing a rapid influx of several million refugees in just a few weeks. An unprecedented and rapid response of the Polish society in terms of providing assistance to refugees enabled the acceptance of those who decided to stay in Poland Social action that began at the local level and translated into commonly known non-governmental assistance provided the basis and impetus for fostering beneficial connections between Poland and Ukraine, not only on the state level, but especially within the respective populations. The purpose of the article was to explore the forms of assistance offered by the Polish society, the scope of aspects of the refugees’ lives it addressed, and how this was reflected in the mutual perception of Poles and Ukrainians. As a hypothesis, it was assumed that a direct involvement of the Polish society in helping refugees from Ukraine decreased over the course of a year of the full-blown war in Ukraine, with simultaneous high social support for the state’s systemic solutions in this regard. In order to verify the hypothesis, a combination of descriptive, analysis of existing data, comparative and statistical methods were employed.
Topic:
Refugees, NGOs, Society, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Poland

44. Verification of nationality and rehabilitation in Upper Silesia as a point of reference for Donbas

Author:
Cezary Trosiak
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
In Poland, the region where the phenomenon of multiculturalism is most strongly represented is Upper Silesia. Upper Silesia, its historical hosts, have been confronted with German, Polish and Czech nationalism since the mid-21st century. Initially, they were forced to determine their ethnic affiliation, then, due to the change of borders, they were forced to move to one or the other side of the newly established Polish-German border in 1922. After 1945, they were subjected to strong repression, deportation to forced labor camps, forced displacement, degrading verification of nationality, and then they were confronted with the Polish population who came to Upper Silesia. Most often, the Poles who arrived were hostile to the Upper Silesians. The aim of this article is to answer the question whether the experiences of integration of the indigenous population of Upper Silesia into the social, cultural, economic and political structures of the Polish state after World War II can be related to a similar process that will take place after the end of hostilities in the eastern regions of the Ukrainian state. . The starting point is the thesis that the Upper Silesian experience of the rehabilitation and citizenship verification procedures should serve as a warning against the mistakes made in Upper Silesia rather than as a useful reference point.
Topic:
History, Citizenship, Nationality, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Poland

45. Ukrainians in Poland on behalf of refugees – a case study of the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship

Author:
Teresa Astramowicz-Leyk, Olha Ivasechko, and Turchyn
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The aim of the article is to present the activity of three branches of the Association of Ukrainians in Poland, covering the entire Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship. The study also outlines the Association’s activities supporting refugees. The main research hypothesis is that the Association of Ukrainians in Poland is actively engaged in the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship, and following Russia’s full-scale invasion, members of the Association became extremely proactive both in helping refugees from Ukraine, as well as Ukrainians who stayed in Ukraine, including those from the territory of military operations. The core research problems focuses on the following questions: What efforts did the Association of Ukrainians in Poland undertake to maintain its history, traditions, language and culture? Which activities have been supported by local government authorities, including the Voivodeship ones? How has the Association changed its activity following the Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022? Previous studies conducted by the authors demonstrate that economic migrants from Ukraine in the Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship did not perceive themselves as a part of the Ukrainian minority living in the region. Meanwhile, the relationship between the Association and the refugees is different.
Topic:
Minorities, Refugees, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, and Poland

46. Model of the Dimensions of Threat Perception: Results of Experimental Verification Based on the Sense of Endangerment Caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Bogdan Ćwik
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The article addresses the problem of the limited effectiveness of the perception of warning signals related to threats. The subject is an element of the search for methods to improve the efficiency of risk monitoring systems. The problem with these systems is the fact that, despite the existing standards, binding norms and regulations, as well as numerous organisational, technological, and institutional security measures, unexpected negative events still occur, and their consequences include not only significant losses but also numerous human tragedies. The article presents a model of the efficiency of the perception of threats that identifies a 9-dimensional vector of the “significance of the perceived threat”. Each of the presented dimensions reflects a specific factor that influences the significance of the perceived threat. The research was based on the feeling of endangerment caused by the COVID-19 pandemic among the citizens of Poland. The threat was particularly noticeable in the first phases of the pandemic, i.e., in March and April 2020 and October-December (the second wave of the pandemic).
Topic:
COVID-19 and Threat Perception
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

47. The Cyclical Behaviour of Government Spending for Social Protection: Is the OECD Methodology Robust?

Author:
Aleksandr Arsenev, Philipp Heimberger, and Torben Schütz
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Spending elasticities measure the reaction of different government spending components to the business cycle. They are important inputs for fiscal forecasts, and they are particularly relevant in the context of European Union (EU) fiscal rules, as elasticity estimates enter the estimation of fiscal space. This paper analyses the sensitivity of the estimation method used by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the European Commission to obtain government spending elasticities by focusing on 11 EU countries in the 1995-2020 period. Our results suggest that spending elasticities are sensitive to small variations in data and model specification. For most EU countries, we reject the assumption that only unemployment spending responds to cyclical variations. While unemployment spending is indeed a major driver of counter-cyclical social spending, other categories of social spending also show signs of responding to the business cycle.
Topic:
Budget, European Union, Finance, Macroeconomics, Public Debt, Social Spending, Public Spending, and Fiscal Deficit
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, France, Poland, Germany, Denmark, Romania, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Austria, and Czechia

48. Assessing Disproportionate Territorial Development: Insights from 10 Countries

Author:
Davit Hakhverdyan and Gagik Badadyan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
Territorial development disparities are an undeniable reality for all the countries of the world, which implies that no country can practically avoid them. However, how different countries respond to these disparities is another matter. The effectiveness of policies in overcoming territorial development disparities depends significantly on how deeply these disparities are recognized and studied. In this context, assessing disparities in territorial development is necessary, and the article proposes a methodology for its implementation. The methodology examines territorial development indexes and their relative standard deviation. In the article, the developed methodology was also applied to 10 countries, as a result of which the levels of territorial development disparities in Canada, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Finland, Serbia, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, and China were evaluated. Based on the assessments, general conclusions are also presented for each country in the article.
Topic:
Methodology, Territorial Development, Disparity, and Modeling
Political Geography:
China, Moldova, Canada, Finland, Kazakhstan, Poland, Serbia, Bulgaria, Hungary, and Georgia

49. Toxic Ticking Time-Bomb in the Baltic Sea and Threats to Poland’s Security

Author:
Rafał Willa and Agnieszka Szpak
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
The authors examine the threats from hazardous toxic materials from World War II wrecks sunk in the Baltic Sea and their cargo of chemical ammunition, indicate Poland’s reaction to this situation, and map out Polish obligations in this regard. This problem gives rise to multiple uncertainties about the exact nature of threats to environmental/ecological security, marine security, human security (including health security), economic security and food safety. The authors also elaborate on legal regulations relevant in this context. The research methods include formal-institutional analysis of relevant legal documents and discourse analysis. The main conclusions are: 1. toxic materials in the Baltic Sea threaten ecological, economic, human and security; 2. food safety in all Baltic states might be endangered; Poland should accede to the Nairobi Wreck Removal Convention; and Poland should cooperate regionally to resolve the problem of the Baltic chemical waste.
Topic:
International Law, Chemical Weapons, and Shipwreck
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and Baltic Sea

50. The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Local Press in Poland: The Internet Instead of Print?

Author:
Jolanta Kępa-Mętrak
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
This article examines changes in Polish local press at the turn of the second and the third decade of the 21st Century, directly or indirectly related to the coronavirus pandemic. For years, statistics have been showing declining sales of printed press. This is mainly the case of the general-interest newspapers – national, regional, and local alike. Internet media platforms are increasingly important and often take over the role of the leading local media. Due to their limited reach, local publishers felt the losses from reduced advertising revenue and copy sales even more acutely than national publishers. Local press and small publishing teams struggled to cope with the impact of the pandemic and demand for digitization. So, what will the local press look like in the following years? How will the pandemic change the face of the local press? This study addresses these issues based on findings from desk research, case studies, and content analysis of relevant media. The result of the research is the confirmation of changes in the field of local communication, especially in its channels. The printed press arouses less and less interest among recipients and ceases to function as the fourth estate.
Topic:
Communications, Media, Internet, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland