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11. The War on Gaza and Middle East Political Science

Author:
Marc Lynch, Ibrahim S. I. Rabaia, Fiona B. Adamson, and Alexei Abrams
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
This special issue of POMEPS Studies offers a platform for scholars to think through what feels like a moment of rupture for the Middle East, for Middle East Studies, and for long-standing assumptions about the region’s politics. This POMEPS collection originated as an open call for papers for scholars affected by or invested in these urgent issues, in an initial effort to give a platform and a voice to those in our network who have grappled with these trends. We kept the call intentionally broad, asking potential authors to reflect on the effects of October 7 and the Gaza War on politics or scholarship. As it turned out, most of the contributors wanted to talk about academic freedoms and the conditions of public discourse in their countries – perhaps because of how profoundly they felt this crisis, perhaps because of the availability of other platforms to discuss the war itself. The issues confronting our field have never been more urgent and the need for academic networks and institutions to rise up to defend it has never been greater.
Topic:
Civil Society, Diplomacy, Education, Genocide, Political Science, Institutions, Academia, Houthis, Forced Migration, Activism, October 7, 2023 Gaza War, and Frantz Fanon
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, Germany, Jordan, Czech Republic, and Gulf Nations

12. Comparing Israeli-Turkish Relations: The 1990s versus post-October 7

Author:
Jonathan Ghariani
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Turkeyscope Dr. Jonathan Ghariani analyzes the changes in Turkey's approach to Israel since October 7, 2023 in contrast to the pre-Erdogan era led by Necmettin Erbakan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

13. Antisemitism: The “New Normal” in Turkey

Author:
Betsy Penso
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Adv. Betsy Penso explains how antisemitism has risen in recent months in Turkey since the outbreak of the war in Gaza. From the government to the media and online networks, virulent anti-Israel speech increasingly threatens Turkey's Jewish minority.
Topic:
Minorities, Jewish community, October 7, 2023 Gaza War, and Antisemitism
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

14. The Nuclear Iran “Concept” Is Already Here: Time Is Short to Prevent Israel’s—and America’s—Next Calamitous Intelligence Failure

Author:
Jonathan Schachter
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Groupthink and unchallenged false assumptions about enemy capabilities and decision-making led to the disasters of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 2023 Hamas-led terrorist invasion of Israel. The lessons of these failures demand that Israel’s political and military leadership and their American counterparts immediately reconsider their assumptions about the Iranian nuclear threat to avoid an even costlier miscalculation.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, October 7, and 1973 War
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

15. Beyond proxies: Iran’s deeper strategy in Syria and Lebanon

Author:
Hamidreza Azizi and Julien Barnes-Dacey
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The war in Gaza is pushing the shadow conflict between Iran and Israel out into the open. There is a grave risk that this escalates further in Lebanon and Syria – where Iran wields powerful influence – and spirals into a full-blown regional war. The intensifying conflict in Syria and Lebanon is the result of Israel’s escalating response since Hamas’s attacks on 7 October and Iran’s “forward-defence” strategy, which aims to confront potential threats before they come close to Iranian borders. Iran’s strategy is underpinned by a decades-long effort to embed its influence in Lebanon and Syria. Western governments will not find this easy to dislodge, and an intensified coercive strategy to push Iran out of the Levant would likely be counterproductive. But Iran’s focus on preserving its influence and deterrence capability – which trumps its ideological commitment to supporting Palestinians and fighting Israel – offers opportunities to prevent a wider war. Europeans should now focus on de-escalating tensions in Lebanon and Syria; increasing conditional support for actors in both countries to advance local stabilisation goals; and intensifying their backing for structural reform that can slowly dilute Iran’s dominance.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Transnational Actors, Regional Power, and October 7
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria

16. El impacto de la guerra de Gaza en Oriente Medio: Riesgos geopolíticos y escenarios de futuro

Author:
Milagros Álvarez-Verdugo and Juan Antonio Martínez-Sánchez
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
Los ataques terroristas del 7 de octubre de 2023 representan un game changer en tanto en cuanto han puesto en evidencia que la ocupación indefinida de los territorios palestinos representa una amenaza permanente para la seguridad de Israel. La ofensiva militar contra Hamas ha colocado a la Franja de Gaza ante la mayor catástrofe humanitaria del último siglo y ha desestabilizado el conjunto de Oriente Medio. La inestabilidad se ha contagiado también al Líbano, Siria, Irak o Yemen, donde operan diversos proxies de Irán que han hostigado a las tropas estadounidenses desplegadas en la región y han sido objeto de frecuentes ataques por parte de Israel y EEUU. El 7-O representa, también, un test para la política exterior de la Unión Europea en un periodo delicado en el que se esfuerza por alcanzar una cierta ‘autonomía estratégica’ tras la invasión rusa de Ucrania. En este contexto, el principal riesgo sigue siendo que la guerra contra Gaza se contagie al conjunto de Oriente Medio arrastrando a la región a una conflagración de impredecibles consecuencias que también afectaría de diferentes formas a la Unión Europea y España.
Topic:
Security, Geopolitics, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

17. Los problemas surgidos tras el grave conflicto Israelí-Palestino en Gaza a raíz de los ataques de Hamás del 7 de octubre de 2023

Author:
Romualdo Bermejo and Natalia Ordoñez
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Los ataques del 7 de octubre de 2023 por parte de Hamás contra Israel, y las atrocidades cometidas por los milicianos y terroristas de esta organización, pasarán a la historia como un ejemplo de barbarie, por mucho que no todos los Estados los hayan condenado, e incluso tácitamente aprobado. Si para Israel esto ha sido un segundo "Holocausto", para otros Estados y actores se ha ejercido un derecho de "resistencia". Estos ataques han suscitado una dura reacción de Israel y de sus fuerzas armadas sobre la Franja de Gaza, que es criticada por no respetar el Derecho internacional humanitario, dejando de lado el derecho de legítima defensa. En este contexto, ha vuelto la idea de la creación de un Estado palestino, ahora con más ímpetu,
Topic:
Human Rights, Hamas, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), October 7, 2023 Gaza War, and Two-State Solution
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

18. Why Hamas Cannot Be Destroyed

Author:
Grace Wermenbol
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Israel’s strategy to eradicate Hamas by killing off its leadership has proven ineffective for decades; the current war demonstrates the myopic nature of this approach
Topic:
Non State Actors, Leadership, Assassination, Hamas, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

19. A Reading on the Future of Hamas

Author:
Omar Shaban
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
The aftermath of October 7, and assassination of senior commanders, has forced an existential rethink within Hamas
Topic:
Non State Actors, Hamas, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza

20. CTC Sentinel: October 2024 Issue

Author:
Michel Wyss, Brian Dodwell, Michael Knights, and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
A year on from the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, terrorist attack on Israel, the Middle East is entering its most dangerous period in living memory. The unfolding events will have far-reaching consequences for the region and the international terror threat. In our feature article, Michel Wyss assesses the intelligence failings in the lead-up to October 7. He writes: “Israel’s inability to detect the impending attacks was not the result of a single glaring failure but rather the result of multiple problems at different levels and across the various intelligence services and the top political and military echelons,” adding that “failures and negligence hampered both Israel’s overall political assessment as well as collection, analysis, and dissemination at the intelligence level.” He argues that one lesson learned is the need for humility and that also includes “the recognition that even seasoned intelligence analysts can fall prey to their own blind spots.” Our interview is with Christopher O’Leary, former FBI Counterterrorism Senior Executive and Director of Hostage Recovery. He provides insights from his more than two decades of working on counterterrorism investigations for the FBI. Reflecting on the Israeli experience since October 7, he discusses key variables for a government to consider when faced with a hostage crisis. Michael Knights examines a year of Houthi attacks against Israel and shipping off the coast of Yemen. He writes: “Facing weak domestic opposition and arguably strengthening their maritime line of supply to Iran, the Houthis are stronger, more technically proficient, and more prominent members of the Axis of Resistance than they were at the war’s outset. The Houthis can now exploit new opportunities by cooperating with other Axis of Resistance players in Iraq as well as with Russia, and they could offer Yemen as a platform from which Iran can deploy advanced weapons against Israel and the West without drawing direct retaliation.” Matthew Levitt assesses the threat posed by Iran’s weaponized pharmaceutical-based agents (PBAs). He writes: “Today, with Iran’s proxies wreaking havoc throughout the region, officials worry Tehran may have already provided weaponized PBAs to several of its partners and proxies. Such a capability, tactically deployed on the battlefield, could enable further October 7-style cross-border raids or kidnapping operations.” This issue is my hundredth at the helm of CTC Sentinel. It is an ongoing privilege to feature the insights of the best and brightest in our field and to count as my colleagues the extraordinary group of leaders and thinkers at West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center.
Topic:
Terrorism, Houthis, Hamas, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, and Palestine