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12. The Seesaw Relationship between Turkey and Israel
- Author:
- Selin Nasi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Selin Nasi discusses how Erdogan has limited Turkey's relevance to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by openly supporting Hamas in recent months.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Hamas, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
13. Why the Biden Cease-fire Proposal Will Not End the Gaza War Despite UN Approval
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The proposal that the Biden administration attributes to Israel does not promise an end to the war, much less Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. While claiming to support the proposal, Prime Minister Netanyahu also asserts that “we have maintained the goals of the war, first of them the destruction of Hamas.” Is this consistent with the proposal? It is. How?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Hamas, Ceasefire, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
14. Egypt Polling Shows Rise in Positive Views of Hamas; Iran-Backed Groups and the Muslim Brotherhood Remain Unpopular
- Author:
- Mohamed Abdelaziz
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- While Hamas has experienced a surge of popular support in Egypt, these views have not impacted those who say that they have a positive view of the Muslim Brotherhood. Iran’s proxies, namely Hezbollah and the Houthis, remained deeply unpopular among Egyptians. Arecent public opinion survey of Egyptian citizens, commissioned by the Washington Institute and conducted in November/December by a regional commercial firm, revealed that after years of adopting a negative view towards Hamas, three-quarters of Egyptians now view the movement positively, demonstrating the impact of the Israel-Hamas war on Egyptian public opinion. The majority of Egyptians continue to reject ties with Israel and Israelis, while Iran’s proxies remain unpopular, while the majority of Egyptians believe that the United States can put an end to the war in Gaza. Regarding the United States’ role in the ongoing war in Gaza, the current poll showed that more than three-quarters of Egyptians agreed that “the U.S. is still in the best position to help end the war in Gaza, even if I disagree with its policies.” However, Egyptians are currently divided on the proposition that “We cannot count on the U.S. these days, so we should look more to other nations like Russia or China as partners.” While 57% of Egyptians agreed with this proposition, 42% disagreed. In terms of the role that Arab countries should play in the ongoing conflict, the current poll showed mixed views. A significant majority of Egyptians (97%) demanded that Arab states take a tough stand against Israel and “immediately sever all diplomatic, political, economic, and any other contacts with Israel, in protest against its military action in Gaza.” Yet although not unanimous, over two thirds (69%) of Egyptians likewise agreed that “Arab governments should take a more active role in Palestinian-Israeli peacemaking, offering both sides incentives to take more moderate positions.” Moreover, an overwhelming majority (96%) of Egyptians believed that their country should provide more humanitarian aid to the Palestinians, even if that requires some practical coordination with Israel. Notably, while Hamas has experienced a surge of popularity—in line with significant jumps among other Arab publics polled—these views have not impacted those who say that they have a positive view of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). The current Egyptian government finds both the Muslim Brotherhood itself and its Palestinian offshoot threatening to domestic politics. For almost eight years, since the release of the Fall 2015 poll results, where Hamas received negative scores, the majority of Egyptians demonstrated a negative attitude towards Hamas. In contrast, the current poll shows that three-quarters of Egyptians view Hamas positively, while less than a quarter hold a negative view. Likewise, the large majority expressed agreement with the view that the war in
- Topic:
- Public Opinion, Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood, Polls, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Palestine, and Egypt
15. Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in Lebanon’s Palestinian Camps: Emotion and Reason, Solidarity and Militancy
- Author:
- Marie Kortam
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- In September and early October of 2023, I was in Lebanon on a working visit to the Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp after the outbreak of bloody battles between the Fatah movement and the “Muslim Youth.”1 The clashes in Ain al-Hilweh began on 30 July 2023, following the assassination of Abu Ashraf al-Armushi, Fatah’s security chief for southern Lebanon. The Palestinian National Security Forces, affiliated with the Palestinian Authority, are responsible for protecting and managing the security of Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, and communicating with the Lebanese army to solve any incidents that occur. The clashes continued intermittently until late September, and stopped completely as Operation Al-Aqsa Flood began, with rogue elements on both sides promising to resume their conflict after the Gaza War. This was not the first time that Ain al-Hilweh camp has witnessed an armed conflict between Fatah and the "Muslim youth." This battle was one round in a series of escalations between Fatah and various Islamist militant groups which began with the establishment of Osbat al-Ansar in 1990, then with more extremist groups that splintered from al-Ansar after it concluded a peace agreement with Fatah in 2002. In reality, this battle was a conflict between Fatah and Hamas over control of the camp, as part of their fundamental struggle over Palestinian legitimacy. One hypothesis suggests that the recent clashes in Ain al-Hilweh resulted from an attempt by a party with no stakes in reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas to scuttle the dialogue conference in Egypt held on 30 July 2023. Fatah members, residents, and activists in the camp claim that Hamas is fighting “with another’s sword” against Fatah, that is, using unrecognized Islamic groups in the camp such as the Maqdisi group led by Fadi Al-Saleh, a close affiliate of Hamas who works with Turkish non-governmental organizations and supports the "Muslim Youth" groupings. Historically, the camps in Lebanon were under the control of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), and still are. However, since Mahmoud Abbas took over the administration of the Palestinian Authority, the Fatah movement, the PLO, and all Palestinian national institutions have marginalized refugees and failed to prioritize their cause. As a consequence, Palestinian refugees became increasingly discontent with Abbas’ positions, even those within the ranks of the Fatah movement, albeit this discord was not always made public. As for Hamas, it lost its base in the Yarmouk camp in Syria after the rift between it and the Syrian regime with the outbreak of the Syrian revolution, which made it search for another base among the refugees. Ain al-Hilweh camp was one of its areas of interest, as the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon where Islamist movements such as the Osbat al-Ansar and the Mujahid Movement were present, making the camp fertile ground for Islamist activity. Hence, it became logical for Hamas to compete with Fatah over governance of the Lebanese camps, the most important of which is Ain al-Hilweh as the capital of the Palestinian diaspora. This article presents a preliminary analysis of the perception of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon towards Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and the forms of solidarity with Gaza, both as socio-political solidarity and as militant engagement at a moment of intense competition between Fatah and Hamas. The article also raises the issue of the mobilization of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon and Hamas's attempts to establish influence in the camps in the aftermath of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood. The article is based on official and informal meetings, observations during field visits to the camps in early October and November 2023, and a review of news coverage.
- Topic:
- Refugees, Solidarity, Hamas, Armed Conflict, and Al-Aqsa Flood
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Lebanon
16. Deal or No Deal: The Road to a Cease-fire in Gaza and on the Lebanon-Israel Border
- Author:
- Gerald Feierstein and Randa Slim
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- The Middle East Institute hosted an on-the-record briefing on current Israel-Hamas cease-fire negotiations and likely outcomes in the coming days and weeks.
- Topic:
- Negotiation, Hamas, Ceasefire, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
17. Silencing the guns: Bringing the war in Gaza to a sustainable end
- Author:
- Brian Katulis, Khaled Elgindy, and James F. Hollifield
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- More than six months on from Hamas’ brutal attack on Oct. 7, the war in Gaza shows few signs of slowing down. In the devastated coastal strip tens of thousands have died, over a million are internally displaced, aid delivery remains exceedingly difficult, and famine is beginning to spread. Meanwhile, other than a brief, two-week pause that expired in December, repeated efforts to negotiate another cease-fire have failed. US, Egyptian, and Qatari diplomats have been hard at work for half a year, but over 130 hostages remain in captivity with no real indication of how many are still alive. Rising tensions between Israel and Iran are only likely to exacerbate the situation, with unpredictable consequences. How can the US and its regional and international partners help bring the war to a sustainable end? What does Washington want the region to look like after the dust settles? And what steps must it take to reach that goal?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Hamas, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
18. Houthi Motivations Driving the Red Sea Crisis: Understanding How Ansar Allah’s Strategic Culture Goes Beyond Gaza and Iran
- Author:
- Jonah Carlson
- Publication Date:
- 09-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- Ansar Allah, known as the “Houthi movement,” has conducted attacks on ships transiting the Red Sea since October 2023. This event is now known as the “Red Sea Crisis.” Classifying Ansar Allah as merely an Iranian proxy, or categorizing its actions as a mere response to the conflict in Gaza and support for Hamas, inadequately explains these attacks. This article uses the cultural topography method to analyze the culture of the movement and provide alternative motivations for the attacks, such as consolidating domestic support and crafting a strong national appearance. The article concludes that Ansar Allah’s attacks on the Red Sea are more motivated by the belief they will yield pragmatic and material benefits for the movement rather than ideological or cultural overlap with Palestine or Iran.
- Topic:
- Houthis, Hamas, Shipping, Regional Politics, 2023 Gaza War, and Ansar Allah
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, and Gaza
19. Why Is It Taking So Long to Destroy Hamas?
- Author:
- Gabi Siboni
- Publication Date:
- 08-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- For years, the Gaza Strip has been of secondary importance, with the General Staff focusing primarily on the northern front and Iran. This focus has come at the expense of intelligence gathering, building operational plans, and operational attention to Gaza.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Hamas, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
20. Gaza’s Day After Starts in Ramallah
- Author:
- Francesca Borri
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The toing and froing of proposals and counterproposals for a ceasefire in Gaza has been going on for months now. The talks between the Israeli government and Hamas, however, have never really been about numbers: how many hostages to release, which ones, in return for how many and which prisoners, and how many days of truce. The sticking point is another: Hamas calls for the end of the war, and the Israeli government for the end of Hamas. This means that, in reality, the stand-off is all about the “day after”. How can a government be established in Gaza that ensures freedom and development on one side, and security on the other one? And yet, that’s what no one has been working on. While most mediators admit by now that Hamas will not be destroyed, in the ceasefire talks the issue of the “day after” continues not to be factored in.
- Topic:
- Hamas, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza