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101. Egypt Polling Shows Rise in Positive Views of Hamas; Iran-Backed Groups and the Muslim Brotherhood Remain Unpopular

Author:
Mohamed Abdelaziz
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
While Hamas has experienced a surge of popular support in Egypt, these views have not impacted those who say that they have a positive view of the Muslim Brotherhood. Iran’s proxies, namely Hezbollah and the Houthis, remained deeply unpopular among Egyptians. Arecent public opinion survey of Egyptian citizens, commissioned by the Washington Institute and conducted in November/December by a regional commercial firm, revealed that after years of adopting a negative view towards Hamas, three-quarters of Egyptians now view the movement positively, demonstrating the impact of the Israel-Hamas war on Egyptian public opinion. The majority of Egyptians continue to reject ties with Israel and Israelis, while Iran’s proxies remain unpopular, while the majority of Egyptians believe that the United States can put an end to the war in Gaza. Regarding the United States’ role in the ongoing war in Gaza, the current poll showed that more than three-quarters of Egyptians agreed that “the U.S. is still in the best position to help end the war in Gaza, even if I disagree with its policies.” However, Egyptians are currently divided on the proposition that “We cannot count on the U.S. these days, so we should look more to other nations like Russia or China as partners.” While 57% of Egyptians agreed with this proposition, 42% disagreed. In terms of the role that Arab countries should play in the ongoing conflict, the current poll showed mixed views. A significant majority of Egyptians (97%) demanded that Arab states take a tough stand against Israel and “immediately sever all diplomatic, political, economic, and any other contacts with Israel, in protest against its military action in Gaza.” Yet although not unanimous, over two thirds (69%) of Egyptians likewise agreed that “Arab governments should take a more active role in Palestinian-Israeli peacemaking, offering both sides incentives to take more moderate positions.” Moreover, an overwhelming majority (96%) of Egyptians believed that their country should provide more humanitarian aid to the Palestinians, even if that requires some practical coordination with Israel. Notably, while Hamas has experienced a surge of popularity—in line with significant jumps among other Arab publics polled—these views have not impacted those who say that they have a positive view of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). The current Egyptian government finds both the Muslim Brotherhood itself and its Palestinian offshoot threatening to domestic politics. For almost eight years, since the release of the Fall 2015 poll results, where Hamas received negative scores, the majority of Egyptians demonstrated a negative attitude towards Hamas. In contrast, the current poll shows that three-quarters of Egyptians view Hamas positively, while less than a quarter hold a negative view. Likewise, the large majority expressed agreement with the view that the war in
Topic:
Public Opinion, Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood, Polls, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Palestine, and Egypt

102. Israel and the ICJ: Comparing International Court Cases During the Gaza War

Author:
Alexander Loengarov
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The current cycle of legal actions involving Israel is unprecedented in scope and politicization, but governments are still better off engaging with the process and lodging their objections there than dismissing it outright. On July 19, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will deliver an advisory opinion on the “legal consequences arising from the policies and practices of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem.” The opinion was requested by the UN General Assembly (UNGA) more than a year and a half ago—well before the Gaza war broke out—in the context of efforts to increase awareness of the Palestinian issue at various international forums, as well as more specific concerns about escalating “tensions and violence” with Israel. The timing of this week’s opinion might seem incongruous given how much has taken place since it was first requested in January 2023. Yet it is in keeping with a wartime trend in which more new cases are being brought before international courts, and pending cases are being rekindled and amplified. Distinguishing between these cases is instructive.
Topic:
Genocide, International Law, International Court of Justice (ICJ), and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

103. Crossing the Rubicon: The Munich Syndrome and Forcing Israel to Peace, 1970-1978

Author:
Menderes Kurt
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Munich Syndrome has been considered a constraint in the peace process decision-making of Israel. By raising questions such as what obstructs peacemaking in Israel, its costs, and whether it can force peace, the study employs the Munich analogy as a “historical lesson” method to examine why and how peace has turned into an anomaly in Israel. The Munich Agreement of 1938 by Britain and France, amid raging anti-Jewish violence in Europe, sought to appease Adolf Hitler by acquiescing to the German occupation of Czechoslovakia to prevent the world war outbreak, which, however, backfired and emerged as a metaphor for foreign policy decision-making weakness. This historical lesson has impacted Israeli society’s and its leaders’ attitudes towards peace, turning it into a Rubicon line. The study uses the 1970-1978 Arab-Israeli peace process as a case study to explain how the Munich Syndrome impedes peacemaking decisions and potential ways of overcoming it. It argues that a possible way to encourage Israel to make peace with its adversaries is with third parties providing significant concessions and guarantees.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, History, Peace, and Munich Syndrome
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

104. Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in Lebanon’s Palestinian Camps: Emotion and Reason, Solidarity and Militancy

Author:
Marie Kortam
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
In September and early October of 2023, I was in Lebanon on a working visit to the Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp after the outbreak of bloody battles between the Fatah movement and the “Muslim Youth.”1 The clashes in Ain al-Hilweh began on 30 July 2023, following the assassination of Abu Ashraf al-Armushi, Fatah’s security chief for southern Lebanon. The Palestinian National Security Forces, affiliated with the Palestinian Authority, are responsible for protecting and managing the security of Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, and communicating with the Lebanese army to solve any incidents that occur. The clashes continued intermittently until late September, and stopped completely as Operation Al-Aqsa Flood began, with rogue elements on both sides promising to resume their conflict after the Gaza War. This was not the first time that Ain al-Hilweh camp has witnessed an armed conflict between Fatah and the "Muslim youth." This battle was one round in a series of escalations between Fatah and various Islamist militant groups which began with the establishment of Osbat al-Ansar in 1990, then with more extremist groups that splintered from al-Ansar after it concluded a peace agreement with Fatah in 2002. In reality, this battle was a conflict between Fatah and Hamas over control of the camp, as part of their fundamental struggle over Palestinian legitimacy. One hypothesis suggests that the recent clashes in Ain al-Hilweh resulted from an attempt by a party with no stakes in reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas to scuttle the dialogue conference in Egypt held on 30 July 2023. Fatah members, residents, and activists in the camp claim that Hamas is fighting “with another’s sword” against Fatah, that is, using unrecognized Islamic groups in the camp such as the Maqdisi group led by Fadi Al-Saleh, a close affiliate of Hamas who works with Turkish non-governmental organizations and supports the "Muslim Youth" groupings. Historically, the camps in Lebanon were under the control of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), and still are. However, since Mahmoud Abbas took over the administration of the Palestinian Authority, the Fatah movement, the PLO, and all Palestinian national institutions have marginalized refugees and failed to prioritize their cause. As a consequence, Palestinian refugees became increasingly discontent with Abbas’ positions, even those within the ranks of the Fatah movement, albeit this discord was not always made public. As for Hamas, it lost its base in the Yarmouk camp in Syria after the rift between it and the Syrian regime with the outbreak of the Syrian revolution, which made it search for another base among the refugees. Ain al-Hilweh camp was one of its areas of interest, as the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon where Islamist movements such as the Osbat al-Ansar and the Mujahid Movement were present, making the camp fertile ground for Islamist activity. Hence, it became logical for Hamas to compete with Fatah over governance of the Lebanese camps, the most important of which is Ain al-Hilweh as the capital of the Palestinian diaspora. This article presents a preliminary analysis of the perception of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon towards Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and the forms of solidarity with Gaza, both as socio-political solidarity and as militant engagement at a moment of intense competition between Fatah and Hamas. The article also raises the issue of the mobilization of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon and Hamas's attempts to establish influence in the camps in the aftermath of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood. The article is based on official and informal meetings, observations during field visits to the camps in early October and November 2023, and a review of news coverage.
Topic:
Refugees, Solidarity, Hamas, Armed Conflict, and Al-Aqsa Flood
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Lebanon

105. Deal or No Deal: The Road to a Cease-fire in Gaza and on the Lebanon-Israel Border

Author:
Gerald Feierstein and Randa Slim
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The Middle East Institute hosted an on-the-record briefing on current Israel-Hamas cease-fire negotiations and likely outcomes in the coming days and weeks.
Topic:
Negotiation, Hamas, Ceasefire, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

106. Silencing the guns: Bringing the war in Gaza to a sustainable end

Author:
Brian Katulis, Khaled Elgindy, and James F. Hollifield
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
More than six months on from Hamas’ brutal attack on Oct. 7, the war in Gaza shows few signs of slowing down. In the devastated coastal strip tens of thousands have died, over a million are internally displaced, aid delivery remains exceedingly difficult, and famine is beginning to spread. Meanwhile, other than a brief, two-week pause that expired in December, repeated efforts to negotiate another cease-fire have failed. US, Egyptian, and Qatari diplomats have been hard at work for half a year, but over 130 hostages remain in captivity with no real indication of how many are still alive. Rising tensions between Israel and Iran are only likely to exacerbate the situation, with unpredictable consequences. How can the US and its regional and international partners help bring the war to a sustainable end? What does Washington want the region to look like after the dust settles? And what steps must it take to reach that goal?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Hamas, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

107. The ramifications of the surge in fighting between Israel and Hezbollah

Author:
Gerald Feierstein, Eran Etzion, and Charles Lister
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
MEI experts discuss the risks of a full-blown war following the latest rounds of escalation, the political and strategic calculations inside Israel and by Hezbollah, as well as the additional steps the United States can take to help avert a broader conflict. The briefing features Amb. (ret.) Gerald Feierstein, Distinguished Senior Fellow on U.S. Diplomacy at the Middle East Institute (MEI); Eran Etzion, Former Head of Policy Planning for the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs and a Non-Resident Scholar at MEI; as well as Charles Lister, Director MEI's Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism Programs.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Lebanon

108. How might US-Israeli relations evolve under the Trump administration?

Author:
Nimrod Goren and Ilai Saltzman
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
MEI Senior Fellow for Israeli Affairs Nimrod Goren and Associate Research Professor Ilai Saltzman discuss potential shifts in US policy, the outlook for Israeli politics in 2025, and the challenges to advancing peace on the Israeli-Palestinian front. Tune in for expert insights on what lies ahead.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

109. The Israel Hamas Conflict: An Analysis on Threats and Security Implications Posed by Iran in the Middle East

Author:
Rahat Anwar and Tajmmal Abbas
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
In the history of world one can trace a series of wars fought between Arabs and Jews on the land of Palestine, which is sacred land for Muslims, Jews and Christians. A country ―Palestine‖ which is inheritance of Arab Muslims is now mostly occupied by Jews and converting into Israel, a state whose idea of existence came into being after Balfour declaration in 1917, and officially came into existence in May 14, 1948. This research has been conducted by consulting many secondary sources including different research articles, international journals and several books regarding Palestinian conflict. Due to the reason of non-recognition of Israel, it had to go through a series of deadly wars in the past but contemporary war is one of deadliest war in the history of this conflict. This study aims to find out Iranian involvement in the war as Iran is vocal supporter of Hamas attack. Objective of this study is to identify the threats to regional security particularly Iran. Iranian involvement is visible, no doubt China has brokered the peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia but long-standing rivalry cannot be overcome overnight. Iran is anti-American since 1979; it has rivalry with both Saudi Arabia and USA. To destroy U.S. brokered Abraham Accords between Israel and Saudi Arabia, Iran allegedly urged Hamas to attack on Israel. This study suggests that Iran often sacrifice its interests over the lives of hundreds of thousands of people’s securities in the region. This study recommended that to stop terrorist financing and by not proving them safe sanctuaries is the only way to de-escalate war and make this region prosperous.
Topic:
Security, Military Intervention, Conflict, Peace, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

110. R2P Monitor, Issue 68, 1 March 2024

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 68 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Cameroon, Central African Republic, South Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, North Korea, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, Central African Republic, and Global Focus