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171. Don’t Forget About the Red Sea

Author:
Burak Şakir Şeker
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
A widening of Israel’s War on Gaza could threaten the vital Red Sea waterway and lead to a global economic crisis
Topic:
Trade, Shipping, Economic Crisis, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, and Red Sea

172. Looking Backward into The Future: Why the United Nations Has Failed to Prevent Genocide

Author:
Gregory H. Stanton
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
At its root, genocide is committed through a lack of empathy, and it has failed to be prevented by a lack of political will. It is time to reverse those failings by rethinking our systems and challenging our assumptions.
Topic:
Genocide, United Nations, Atrocity Prevention, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

173. Hamas “From the Heart of Battle”: Analyzing Abu Obaida’s Discourse

Author:
Sophia Agathocleous and Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
The frames and focus of the speeches of Hamas spokesperson Abu Obaida reveal the group’s strategic goals and the psychological warfare used to achieve them.
Topic:
Ideology, Hamas, Psychological Warfare, 2023 Gaza War, and Abu Obaida
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

174. A Reading on the Future of Hamas

Author:
Omar Shaban
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
The aftermath of October 7, and assassination of senior commanders, has forced an existential rethink within Hamas
Topic:
Non State Actors, Hamas, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza

175. Palestine 2023: Palestinian Perception of Governance

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
On the eve of October the 7th, the Palestinian perception of PA governance was grim: trust in the PA leadership, PA public institutions, civil society organizations, and Hamas was low and declining; perception of corruption in PA institutions was overwhelming; and the public assessed the performance of the government in providing security, keeping the prices down, and narrowing the gap between rich and poor as bad or very bad; but satisfaction with service delivery was mixed These are the results of the latest wave of the Arab Barometer (AB) poll in Palestine, the 8th to be conducted since the start of these polls in the Arab World. This report is restricted to findings related to Palestinian perception of governance. The poll was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip essentially during the period immediately before the start of the October the 7th war in the Gaza Strip and its envelop on the Israeli side.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Institutions, Survey, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

176. Palestine 2023: Palestinian Perception of Migration

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
On the eve of October 7, about a third of Gazans and about a fifth of West Bankers said they were considering emigrating from Palestine. The main drivers seem economic, political, educational, security and concerns about corruption. The most preferred destination for immigration is Turkey, followed by Germany, Canada, the United States and Qatar. The vast majority of Palestinians reported receiving no remittances from relatives in the diaspora. The vast majority supports the right of foreign domestic workers in Palestine to always have their passports, to a day off a week, and to a bank account in which they receive their salaries. These are the results of the latest wave of the Arab Barometer (AB) poll in Palestine, the 8th to be conducted since the start of these polls in the Arab World. This report is restricted to findings related to Palestinian perception of migration. The poll was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip essentially during the period immediately before the start of the October the 7th war in the Gaza Strip and its envelop on the Israeli side.
Topic:
Security, Corruption, Education, Migration, Economy, and Survey
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank

177. The economic and social costs of the war in Gaza

Author:
Perrihan Al-Riffai
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
A year after the outbreak of the war in Gaza, which later expanded into Lebanon, the two countries in conflict, the Middle East region, and the global economy have been significantly affected. In Gaza, the war has caused nearly $18.5 billion in infrastructure damage, according to preliminary assessments by the World Bank, the United Nations, and the European Union. The onset of the war also led to supply and demand shocks, causing a 21 percent year-on-year decline in Israeli economic activity in the fourth quarter. Lebanon, already deep in an economic crisis before the war, has seen one of its few stable income sources—tourism—collapse. Additionally, as international shipping routes are redirected away from the Suez Canal to avoid risks in the Red Sea, one of Egypt’s primary sources of revenue in foreign currency. In addition to the war, a convergence of factors—high inflation, mounting debt, population displacement, and natural disasters—has created a complex crisis across the region. This combination threatens to deepen poverty and inequality while intensifying climate-related impacts. This report reviews and analyzes the economic impact of the Gaza war on the countries at the epicenter, including Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, as well as the wider region, including the Maghreb countries and the GCC, and the global economy. It tracks the impact on overall economic growth, key sectors, and other implications such as financial volatility, disinvestment, fiscal burdens, and pressure on the oil market. While the report provides comprehensive coverage of these elements, it is worth noting that the war is expanding to involve additional players, and its impact will likely continue to grow.
Topic:
Conflict, Tariffs, Macroeconomics, Trade, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

178. Palestine Is One Vote Short in the Security Council from Being Recognised as a State

Author:
Yossi Mekelberg
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The total stalemate in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict requires new thinking and weaning off of old paradigms. Currently as the result of the Hamas attack on October 7, the ensuring war in Gaza, and the deterioration of security in the occupied West Bank, the relations between the Israelis and the Palestinians are at their worst since 1948 and seem the least conducive to a new a peace process. However, events have demonstrated to the international community that allowing this conflict to fester has had disastrous consequences not only for Israelis and Palestinians, but it has also had far-reaching implications across the region and the rest of the international community. This paper argues that an important step to break the deadlock is recognition of Palestinian statehood by individual countries and by international organizations, in particular the UN Security Council. Such recognition should incentivize both sides to negotiate peace based on a two-state solution, as it would overcome the asymmetry in the negotiations between a recognized state and movement representing its people. It will empower the pragmatic elements in both societies who are invested in peace, and will also send a clear message of sincerity from the international community that a two-state solution is the one it is behind and it will support.
Topic:
Sovereignty, United Nations, State, UN Security Council, 2023 Gaza War, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

179. Exaggerations, Obstacles and Opportunities: The Saudi Arabian Position in the Gaza War

Author:
Aziz Alghashian
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The paper aims to shed light on the obstacles and opportunities of Saudi involvement in a future Palestinian-Israeli peace process. It first explains the enigmatic nature of Saudi communication towards Israel and explains why Saudi pragmatism has been misunderstood. The paper also explains the rationale behind Saudi Arabia’s willingness to normalize relations with Israel, and that Saudi-Israeli normalization is treated as a gateway to a larger game-changing strategic treaty with the United States, rather than a keenness to cooperate with Israel itself. In addition, the paper argues that while the Saudi ruling elite are willing to play financial and security roles in “reconstructing” Gaza, it is unforeseeable that this will ensue without a credible peace process that can justify these efforts, especially against the backdrop of Saudi Arabia’s restructuring of its own economy. The paper then explains the ways in which Saudi Arabia, Gulf Arab states, and European states can help cooperate in areas such as building a Palestinian economic horizon that can strengthen the Palestinian-Israeli political framework; developing Palestinian-Israeli green cooperation; and developing an Arab-Israeli network of academics, experts, and journalists that can be an intersection of top-down and bottom-up projects that aim to reach a two-state solution.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Normalization, 2023 Gaza War, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Saudi Arabia

180. CTC Sentinel: February 2024 Issue

Author:
Don Rassler, Sean Morrow, Don Rassler, Kristina Hummel, and Daisy Muibu
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Long-range aerial attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi terrorist group, including a ballistic missile that traveled at least a thousand miles toward Israel before being intercepted (reportedly in space) on October 31, 2023, are focusing minds on long-range stand-off terrorism. In this month’s feature article, which conceptualizes, outlines, and examines the implications of this emerging threat vector, Don Rassler argues that the notion that terrorists could strike the United States across the oceans with unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) is becoming increasingly less far-fetched. Rassler writes that “over the coming decade, hydrogen fuel cell and solar UAS technology will evolve and mature, and will also likely become more available and accessible to the average consumer, which will make longer ranges more accessible as well. Other disruptive technologies, such as generative artificial intelligence, will also mature and will likely be used by extremists to help them optimize system performance and to overcome, or devise creative solutions to, technical long-range UAS challenges.” He warns that “long-range stand-off terrorism will be attractive to some extremists because it opens-up new attack pathways, can enable surprise, and has the potential to deliver a potent psychological, ‘we can strike you from afar’ punch. Over the next decade advancements in commercial technologies and systems will also make range, and extended range, more accessible for violent non-state-entities, making it likely that in the future long-range terrorism will become even more of a threat.” Rassler’s article is the first in a new recurring series in CTC Sentinel entitled “On the Horizon” that will examine emerging counterterrorism challenges. Our interview is with Christopher Maier, the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict. “We need to have sustainable CT operations that prevent terrorists’ actions, principally al-Qa`ida and ISIS, to ensure we are not distracted by what we view as the longer-term strategic priorities, such as peer adversaries,” he says. “As the rest of the Department and other parts of the U.S. government are doing less CT, [this] means that those who are doing it have to do it better and, in many respects, do it more proportionally to the rest of the national security enterprise. This is why SOF is looked to as the lead for the CT fight in the Department.” Daisy Muibu examines the state of Somalia’s military campaign against al-Shabaab. She writes that: “A year and five months after the Somali government launched its offensive against al-Shabaab, the initial optimism that characterized its first few months have diminished as the counterinsurgency’s momentum has stalled in the central regions of the country.” She adds that “with only a year left until African Union forces are mandated to fully draw down, significant obstacles remain that cast doubts over the government’s ambitious goals to defeat al-Shabaab and assume full responsibility for securing the country by December 31, 2024.”
Topic:
National Security, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Artificial Intelligence, Houthis, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Somalia, Global Focus, and United States of America