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92. The Seesaw Relationship between Turkey and Israel
- Author:
- Selin Nasi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Dr. Selin Nasi discusses how Erdogan has limited Turkey's relevance to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by openly supporting Hamas in recent months.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Hamas, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
93. Comparing Israeli-Turkish Relations: The 1990s versus post-October 7
- Author:
- Jonathan Ghariani
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Turkeyscope Dr. Jonathan Ghariani analyzes the changes in Turkey's approach to Israel since October 7, 2023 in contrast to the pre-Erdogan era led by Necmettin Erbakan.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
94. Antisemitism: The “New Normal” in Turkey
- Author:
- Betsy Penso
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Adv. Betsy Penso explains how antisemitism has risen in recent months in Turkey since the outbreak of the war in Gaza. From the government to the media and online networks, virulent anti-Israel speech increasingly threatens Turkey's Jewish minority.
- Topic:
- Minorities, Jewish community, October 7, 2023 Gaza War, and Antisemitism
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
95. Challenges of Global Health Governance Amid the Growing Use of Force in the World
- Author:
- Alina Chesnokova
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- East View Information Services
- Abstract:
- Natural disasters and armed conflicts have accompanied human existence throughout history, always leading to spikes in mortality and morbidity. However, in recent years, the scale and scope of these events have noticeably increased. Since the 1990s, such events annually affect around 217 million people, forcing them to live under conditions of extreme instability and humanitarian crises.1 Despite this, in recent decades, global health management measures amid humanitarian crises caused by armed conflicts have not led to increased equity and quality in the provision of medical care and services in affected areas. Armed conflicts have a profound impact on the architecture of health governance. Military actions often result in the destruction of health care infrastructure, including hospitals, clinics, and essential medical supply chains. Such widespread disruptions hinder the delivery of basic medical services, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Largescale population displacement is the most common consequence of armed conflicts, resulting in the creation of refugee camps and pressure on host communities. This situation exacerbates health issues, as overcrowding promotes the spread of infectious diseases, compounded by the concurrent collapse of health care systems. Conflicts restrict or complicate the provision of humanitarian aid, impeding the delivery of essential medical supplies, vaccines, and medical personnel to affected areas. The psychological consequences of armed conflict always extend beyond physical injuries, with mental health issues becoming increasingly common.
- Topic:
- Governance, Humanitarian Crisis, Armed Conflict, WHO, Global Health, and Disease
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Syria, and Global Focus
96. The Nuclear Iran “Concept” Is Already Here: Time Is Short to Prevent Israel’s—and America’s—Next Calamitous Intelligence Failure
- Author:
- Jonathan Schachter
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Groupthink and unchallenged false assumptions about enemy capabilities and decision-making led to the disasters of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 2023 Hamas-led terrorist invasion of Israel. The lessons of these failures demand that Israel’s political and military leadership and their American counterparts immediately reconsider their assumptions about the Iranian nuclear threat to avoid an even costlier miscalculation.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, October 7, and 1973 War
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
97. Beyond proxies: Iran’s deeper strategy in Syria and Lebanon
- Author:
- Hamidreza Azizi and Julien Barnes-Dacey
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- The war in Gaza is pushing the shadow conflict between Iran and Israel out into the open. There is a grave risk that this escalates further in Lebanon and Syria – where Iran wields powerful influence – and spirals into a full-blown regional war. The intensifying conflict in Syria and Lebanon is the result of Israel’s escalating response since Hamas’s attacks on 7 October and Iran’s “forward-defence” strategy, which aims to confront potential threats before they come close to Iranian borders. Iran’s strategy is underpinned by a decades-long effort to embed its influence in Lebanon and Syria. Western governments will not find this easy to dislodge, and an intensified coercive strategy to push Iran out of the Levant would likely be counterproductive. But Iran’s focus on preserving its influence and deterrence capability – which trumps its ideological commitment to supporting Palestinians and fighting Israel – offers opportunities to prevent a wider war. Europeans should now focus on de-escalating tensions in Lebanon and Syria; increasing conditional support for actors in both countries to advance local stabilisation goals; and intensifying their backing for structural reform that can slowly dilute Iran’s dominance.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Transnational Actors, Regional Power, and October 7
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria
98. Gaming Israeli Nuclear Use: Pandora Unleashed
- Author:
- Henry Sokolski
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- With the continued fighting in Gaza, a nuclear rubicon of sorts has been crossed: Elected Israeli officials — a deputy minister and a ruling party member of Parliament—not only have publicly referenced Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons, but suggested how such weapons might be used to target Gaza. This is unprecedented. More recently, Iran directly attacked an Israeli-manned intelligence outpost in Iraq and publicized a staged missile strike against a mock Israeli air base. Iran also has inched within weeks of making several nuclear weapons and made its military ever more immune to first strikes against its key missile and nuclear facilities. Iran and its proxies also now have long-range, high-precision missiles that can easily reach key Israeli targets. None of these developments is positive. For decades, most security analysts assumed Israel’s undeclared nuclear weapons were only deployed to deter attacks and that Iran would not dare to attack Israel directly. The attached war game report, “Gaming Israeli Nuclear Use: Pandora Unleashed,” directly challenges these assumptions. The game starts in 2027 with Israeli intelligence reporting that Iran is mating nuclear warheads to its long-range missiles. This prompts Israel to ask Washington to collaborate in a conventional military strike against key Iranian nuclear facilities and missile bases. Not wanting to be drawn into a major war with Iran, the United States, however, demurs and instead offers Israel U.S. standoff hypersonic missiles. Several moves later, Israel, isolated and desperate, launches two nuclear strikes against Iran to which Iran replies with a nuclear strike of its own. The game raised several basic questions. Would Israel or Iran conduct further military nuclear operations? Might Israel target Tehran with nuclear weapons? Might Iran target Tel Aviv with nuclear arms? Would Russia or the United States be drawn into the war? These and other unknowns informed the game’s key findings. These included: 1. The strategic uncertainties generated after an Israeli-Iranian nuclear exchange are likely to be at least as fraught as any that might arise before such a clash. 2. Although Israel and Iran might initially avoid the nuclear targeting of innocents, such self-restraint is tenuous. 3. Multilateral support for Israeli security may be essential to deter Israeli nuclear use but will likely hinge on Israeli willingness to discuss regional denuclearization. 4. Little progress is likely in reducing Middle Eastern nuclear threats if the United States continues its public policy of denying knowledge of Israeli nuclear weapons.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, Nonproliferation, and War Games
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
99. Why the Biden Cease-fire Proposal Will Not End the Gaza War Despite UN Approval
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The proposal that the Biden administration attributes to Israel does not promise an end to the war, much less Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. While claiming to support the proposal, Prime Minister Netanyahu also asserts that “we have maintained the goals of the war, first of them the destruction of Hamas.” Is this consistent with the proposal? It is. How?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Hamas, Ceasefire, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
100. The Impact of the War in Gaza on Israel-Jordan Cooperation
- Author:
- Saud Al-Sharafat
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Gaza war’s impact on Jordan has been significant and at times uncontrolled, with a primary focus on demands to halt all forms of “bilateral cooperation” with Israel. However, the implementation of the energy for water project is likely only a matter of time, although contingent on cessation of hostilities. The war in Gaza has cast a dark shadow over the promising water and energy cooperation projects between Jordan and Israel. Water and energy are among the most economically and politically sensitive sectors in contemporary Jordan due to the country’s chronic water shortage and the difficulty of securing energy sources for local use. Jordan imports more than 96 percent of its energy needs, with an annual import bill exceeding $3 billion, according to official statistics. The Gaza war has had a direct impact on Jordanian public opinion, with increasing demands that the country withdraws from all its commitments, treaties, and agreements with Israel and halt all forms of cooperation. So far, however, it appears these demands have disrupted only one project, Project Prosperity—or energy for water agreement—which is sponsored by the United Arab Emirates with U.S. approval. Although the project has been suspended, it will likely resume after the war ends, since both parties have an interest in this type of cooperation. Indeed, despite the current tensions, this type of coordination is almost inevitable given the respective situations of both countries, and as one of the most important means of interconnection and networking that can help mitigate armed crises and conflicts between them.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Water, Public Opinion, Energy, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Jordan