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931. India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Stabilising a Cold Peace?

Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
When the third round of the normalisation talks concludes in July 2006, India and Pakistan will be no closer than when they began the process in February 2004 to resolving differences, including over Kashmir. What they call their "composite dialogue" has helped reduce tensions and prevent a return to the climate of 2001-2002, when they were on the verge of all-out war, but progress has been limited to peripheral issues. India's prime minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, and Pakistan's president, General Pervez Musharraf, have reiterated commitments to sustain the dialogue. It is unrealistic, however, to expect radical change. International, particularly U.S. support for the process will likely dissuade either side from pulling out but asymmetry of interests and goals militates against a major breakthrough. The need is to concentrate on maintaining a cold peace until a long process can produce an atmosphere in which the support of elected governments in both states might realistically bring a Kashmir solution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Middle East, India, and Kashmir

932. Pakistan: Political Impact of the Earthquake

Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Pakistan government's ill-planned and poorly executed emergency response to the October 2005 earthquake highlighted the inadequacies of authoritarian rule. As the government now embarks on three to four years of reconstruction and rehabilitation, the absence of civilian oversight and inadequate accountability and transparency could seriously undermine the process. Should jihadi groups that have been active in relief work remain as involved in reconstruction, threats to domestic and regional security will increase.
Topic:
Security, Environment, and Government
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

933. Oxfam Publishing: Starting on the road to recovery: saving lives and rebuilding livelihoods after the Pakistan earthquake

Author:
Jo Walker
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
On 8 October 2005, an earthquake measuring 7.6 on the Richter scale ripped through northern Pakistan, leaving 80,000 people dead and affecting 3 million more. The crisis is far from over: survivors of the earthquake still face dangers and difficulties as the worst of Pakistan's winter weather has now settled in. Many people are huddled in tents and shelters that give inadequate protection against the freezing temperatures, with only sporadic and insufficient supplies of food.
Topic:
Disaster Relief and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

934. Afghan Insurgency Still A Potent Force

Author:
Emily Hsu and Beth DeGrasse
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Since they reorganized their forces in Pakistan in 2003, Taliban and other anti-government militia have sought to disrupt democratization efforts and sow a climate of fear in Afghanistan. As a result, violence has crept back onto the international radar screen in the last couple of years, a brutal reminder the insurgency is far from defeated. This rise in bloodshed is particularly problematic today, as U.S. forces begin this summer to transfer control of insurgent-heavy regions of the country to NATO. The U.S. Institute of Peace held a recent special session of its Afghanistan Working Group dedicated to this topic, with counterinsurgency experts Seth Jones of the RAND Corporation and Colonel David Lamm of National Defense University. Beth DeGrasse, coordinator of USIP's Afghanistan Working Group
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

935. Afghan Transnational Networks: Looking Beyond Repatriation

Author:
Alessandro Monsutti
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:
This is the final publication of AREU’s long-term research project looking at Afghans’ transnational networks in Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Conflict, transnationalism, and Repatriation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and Middle East

936. Dysfunction of an Ideological State: Pakistan's Recurrent Crisis in Historic Context

Author:
Hussain Haqqani
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
In the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, Pakistan's President Musharraf has taken on the mantle of a leader dedicated to transforming his country from an Islamic ideological state to a moderate Muslim country. Are Musharraf's policies really aimed at changing Pakistan's direction or are they simply part of an effort to salvage a critical policy paradigm adopted by Pakistan's militaryled oligarchy since the country's early days? The author defines the core elements of Pakistani grand strategy by focusing on a policy tripod: the emphasis on Islam as an element of national policy empowered the new country's religious leaders; the inflexibility in relations with India and the belief that India represented an existential threat to Pakistan justified maintaining a large military which, in turn, helped the military assert its dominance in the country's life, and finally; the search for foreign allies who could pay for the country's defense and economic growth resulted in Pakistan's alliance with the West, especially the United States. If Pakistan does not transcend the dynamic created by an ideology defined by the mosque and an overly dominant military, it runs the risk of becoming a failed state with nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, India, and Asia

937. Losing Hearts and Minds: World public opinion and post-9/11 US security policy

Author:
Carl Conetta
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
The sympathy and support for the United States that surged worldwide in the aftermath of the 2001 attacks began to ebb as soon as US bombs began falling on Afghanistan. Supportive sentiments continued to recede through 2004, driven increasingly by the Iraq war and eventually settling at levels unseen since the early 1980s. The trend has temporarily reversed in some places at some times, either in response to hopeful news from Iraq (such as the December 2004 elections) or in reaction to local events (the November 2005 terrorist bombing in Jordan). Also, there are national exceptions to the trend (Israel) and partial exceptions (India). On balance, however, the United States today finds world opinion substantially at odds with its foreign policy and its leadership on most particulars.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Israel, and Jordan

938. Resolving the Pakistan- Afghanistan Stalemate

Author:
Abubakar Siddique and Barnett R. Rubin
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Taliban and al Qaeda insurgencies today are equally active in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The nationalist insurgency in Pakistani Baluchistan, which Pakistani leaders assert receives support from Indian agents in Afghanistan, also aggravates relations between the two countries. The challenges of violent insurgency require both countries to address their relationship, particularly as it affects the border areas. Formation of such a policy is essential to the vital interests of the United States, NATO, and the international community, which has committed itself to the effort in Afghanistan through UN Security Council resolutions and other measures Afghanistan and Pakistan have had largely antagonistic relations under all governments but the Taliban since Pakistan was created as part of the partition of India in 1947. Some elements of friction were also inherited from conflicts between Afghanistan and India when it was under British imperial rule. Afghanistan's governments, including that of the Taliban, have never recognized the Durand Line between the two countries as an international border and have made claims on the Pashtun and Baluch regions of Pakistan. Today 's cross-border insurgencies, with their sanctuaries and support networks in Pakistan, are nurtured by the same sources as previous conflicts, as well as global Islamist movements. Arrangements to secure the frontier of the British Empire in the nineteenth century by isolating Afghanistan as a buffer state do not work for a twenty-first-century borderland integrated into networks of global conflict. The United States and other external powers that seek to support the new order in Afghanistan and stabilize both Pakistan and Afghanistan should encourage a multidimensional process of dialogue and peacebuilding focused on the problems of the border region. Pressure may also be needed to convince some actors to engage seriously in such a process, but pressure alone will not succeed. A process should work toward reforms in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan, leading to their integration into Pakistani national politics and administration; the recognition by Afghanistan of the international border; assured access by Afghanistan to Pakistani ports and transit facilities; the maintenance by both countries of open borders for trade, investment, and cultural relations; agreement by both countries and by India to keep the India-Pakistan dispute out of Afghanistan 's bilateral relations with both; and agreements on both sides to cease supporting or harboring violent opposition movements against the other. The United States, NATO, and the UN must agree to send a common message to Islamabad: that the persistence of Taliban havens in Pakistan is a threat to international peace and security that Pakistan must address immediately. They also must agree to urge Afghanistan and India to do all in their power to encourage Pakistan to make difficult decisions by addressing sources of Pakistani insecurity, including issues relating to the border region and Kashmir. They should actively promote this process and act as guarantors and funders of any agreements that result from it.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, United Kingdom, India, Taliban, and Kashmir

939. Countering Holocaust Denial in Arab and Muslim Societies: A New Approach

Author:
Robert Satloff, Akbar Ahmed, and Gregg Rickman
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Of all the forms of anti-Semitism in Arab societies, Holocaust denial is one of the most pernicious and widespread. Generally it takes one of three forms: outright denial, Holocaust glorification, and Holocaust minimization or trivialization. One does no favor to Arabs by exempting them from this history, whatever its connection to their political dispute with Israel. And because jihadists' conspiracy theories target a coalition of “Crusaders and Jews,” exempting Arabs from Holocaust history certainly does America no favor either.
Topic:
International Relations, Genocide, and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan, America, and Israel

940. Assessing the Iranian Nuclear Threat with Reference to Pakistan's Experience

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On April 30, the Sunday Times of London reported that Israeli Mossad chief Meir Dagan had warned U.S. officials during a secret visit to Washington of covert Iranian plans for enriching uranium, which may mean Tehran was "nearer to acquiring nuclear weapons than widely believed." The same report quoted Knesset Foreign and Defense Committee chairman Yuval Steinitz as saying that Iran might be only a year from developing a bomb. Meanwhile, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director-general and Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohammed ElBaradei is on the record as saying that, once Iran can enrich uranium in quantity, making an actual bomb would only take "a few months." And, in August 2005, the Washington Post reported that the new U.S. National Intelligence Estimate "projected that Iran is about a decade away from manufacturing [sufficient highly enriched uranium] for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous estimate of five years." In such circumstances it is small wonder if the public is confused, wondering whether some officials are exaggerating the potential danger of a nuclear-armed Iran while others seem to be almost irresponsibly unconcerned. In fact, the statements above are not mutually inconsistent, reflecting instead the discrepancy between hard fact and plausible interpretation. Since Iran's controversial uranium enrichment technology was initially acquired from Pakistan, an examination of that country's progress toward a nuclear bomb is both worthwhile and illuminating.
Topic:
Security and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, and Tehran