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921. Regionalism in South Asian Diplomacy

Author:
John Gooneratne, Mavara Inayat, Jamshed Ayaz Khan, Swaran Singh, and Alyson J. K. Bailes
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
In any survey of present-day regional cooperation, South Asia is liable to be cited as one of the problem cases. The dominant strategic feature of the region is the tension and rivalry between India and Pakistan, two powers that have more than once gone to war or to the verge of war and that now have nuclear weapons. Unlike the East–West confrontation of cold war times, this confrontation has not (yet) led to more than a few fragmentary elements of a larger structure of confidence building and conflict avoidance. Even this major challenge is only one of the difficulties in the way of a non-zero-sum multilateral security order for the region. The discrepancy of size and power between India, a nation of over 1 billion people, and all its neighbours leads to natural concerns among the latter about India's dominance in the region and potential interference in their affairs. At different times this has been a significant strand in the policy thinking of states such as Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka and has led them to seek security assistance first and foremost from outside South Asia when they need it.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Asia, India, Sri Lanka, and Nepal

922. Kashmir: A Problem in Search of a Solution

Author:
Shahid Javed Burki
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The ongoing territorial dispute between India and Pakistan over the status of the contested areas of Jammu and Kashmir (henceforth Kashmir) is well known and well documented. This study acknowledges that any resolution of this dispute may be many years in the making. Thus, rather than proposing solutions to the territorial conflict, the study explores the utility of forging enhanced economic opportunities for the people of the region and argues that doing so may prepare the ground for the eventual resolution of the dispute. Many of the proposals advanced here will require all the parties to the dispute—India, Pakistan, and the people of the divided state of Kashmir—to agree on a suite of programs that would bring about positive economic change from which there cannot be any turning back. I believe that such positive change would create vested interests and beneficiaries that would resist any retrenchment from continued progress.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:
Pakistan, India, and Kashmir

923. Pakistan: The Myth of an Islamist Peril

Author:
Frédéric Grare
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The risk of an Islamist takeover in Pakistan is a myth invented by the Pakistani military to consolidate its hold on power. In fact, religious political parties and militant organizations are manipulated by the Pakistani Army to achieve its own objectives, domestically and abroad. The army, not the Islamists, is the real source of insecurity on the subcontinent.
Topic:
International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

924. Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations in the Post-9/11 Era

Author:
Frédéric Grare
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Taliban insurgents and their Al Qaeda allies, once thought defeated in Afghanistan, are regaining strength. Regrouped and reorganized, better equipped and financed, and more sophisticated tactically, they are threatening both the reconstruction process and the U.S.-led coalition forces on the ground. According to the U.S. Department of Defense, sixty-six U.S. troops were killed in combat in Afghanistan in 2005, more than in the previous four years combined.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, and Taliban

925. Islam, Militarism, and the 2007-2008 Elections in Pakistan

Author:
Frédéric Grare
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The year 2007 will be crucial for the future of democracy in Pakistan. If the election schedule announced by Parliamentary Affairs Minister Sher Afghan Niazi is followed, presidential elections will be held in the fall and the general and provincial elections will be held on January 30, 2008. All these elections will be carefully scrutinized by many in the United States and elsewhere, not least because they will include, among other political forces, a coalition of religious political parties, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). Many commentators in the West believe that the Pakistani regime will portray the elections as a contest between Islamists represented by the MMA and the enlightened moderation of President Pervez Musharraf and the Pakistan Army. However, the reality is that the Islamic forces will not be a defining factor. They are a dependent variable whose power is largely determined by the army. The only real questions are whether the army's tactics for manipulating the 2007–2008 elections will differ from those used in 2002 and what role the Islamic parties will play in the process.
Topic:
Civil Society, Islam, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

926. Pakistan: The Resurgence of Baluch Natonalism

Author:
Frédéric Grare
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Thirty years after a bloody conflict that official sources estimate caused more than five thousand deaths among the rebels and almost three thousand among the Pakistan Army, Baluchistan seems to be heading toward another armed insurrection. During the summer of 2004, there were numerous attacks against the army and the paramilitary forces as well as repeated sabotage of oil pipelines. Since the rape of a female doctor by a group of soldiers on January 2, 2005, in the hospital in Sui, the principal gas-producing center in Baluchistan, assaults have multiplied, culminating in a pitched battle between the Frontier Corps, a paramilitary unit, and the local Bugtis, one of the largest Baluch tribes. According to the Pakistani daily, The Nation, approximately 1,568 “terrorist” attacks occurred through April 3, 2005. These attacks have not been confined only to tribal areas but have targeted Pakistani armed forces and Chinese nationals working on major regional projects all over the province.
Topic:
Nationalism, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, and Middle East

927. Fragile States and U.S. Foreign Assistance: Show Me the Money

Author:
Stewart Patrick and Kaysie Brown
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
The Bush administration has increasingly acknowledged that weak and failing states represent the core of today's global development challenge. It has also recognized that such states are potential threats to international peace and security. But despite the rhetoric, it has yet to formulate a coherent strategy around fragile states or commit adequate resources towards engaging them. Excluding funding for Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and HIV/AIDS, the administration's FY07 budget request proposes to spend just $1.1 billion in direct bilateral assistance to fragile states—little more than a dollar per person per year. In this new working paper, CGD research fellow Stewart Patrick and program associate Kaysie Brown urge U.S. policymakers to consider increasing aid to fragile states and to think creatively about how and when to engage these troubled countries. The authors also call for the policy community to integrate non-aid instruments into a more coherent government strategy. To put its money where its mouth is, the U.S. should treat aid to weak and failing states as a form of venture capital, with high risk but potentially high rewards.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Iraq

928. Pakistan's Tribal Areas: Appeasing the Militants

Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Taliban and other foreign militants, including al-Qaeda sympathisers, have sheltered since 2001 in Pakistan's Pashtun-majority Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), seven administrative districts bordering on south eastern Afghanistan. Using the region to regroup, reorganise and rearm, they are launching increasingly severe cross-border attacks on Afghan and international military personnel, with the support and active involvement of Pakistani militants. The Musharraf government's ambivalent approach and failure to take effective action is destabilising Afghanistan; Kabul's allies, particularly the U.S. and NATO, which is now responsible for security in the bordering areas, should apply greater pressure on it to clamp down on the pro-Taliban militants. But the international community, too, bears responsibility by failing to support democratic governance in Pakistan, including within its troubled tribal belt.
Topic:
Government and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Asia, Taliban, and Tribal Areas

929. Countering Afghanistan's Insurgency: No Quick Fixes

Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Fierce battles rage in southern Afghanistan, insurgent attacks in the east creep towards the provinces surrounding Kabul and a new campaign of terrorist violence targets urban centres. The country's democratic government is not immediately threatened but action is needed now. This includes putting more international forces into the battle zones but insurgencies are never beaten by military means alone, and there are no quick fixes. Diplomatic pressure on Pakistan is needed, and the government of President Karzai must show political will to respond to internal discontent with serious efforts to attack corruption, work with the elected National Assembly and extend the rule of law by ending the culture of impunity. Afghanistan needs a renewed, long-term effort to build an effective, fair government that provides real security to its people.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Asia, and Kabul

930. Pakistan: The Worsening Conflict in Balochistan

Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
President Pervez Musharraf and the military are responsible for the worsening of the conflict in Balochistan. Tensions between the government and its Baloch opposition have grown because of Islamabad's heavy-handed armed response to Baloch militancy and its refusal to negotiate demands for political and economic autonomy. The killing of Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti in August 2006 sparked riots and will likely lead to more confrontation. The conflict could escalate if the government insists on seeking a military solution to what is a political problem and the international community, especially the U.S., fails to recognise the price that is involved for security in neighbouring Afghanistan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Asia