The threat of nuclear armageddon is overblown. Instead of stoking fear, policymakers should focus on securing existing nuclear materials and keeping them out of the hands of potential proliferators.
The exchange of oil for security no longer defines the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States. Still, the two countries can restore healthy ties by addressing common concerns such as Pakistan and the Palestinian territories.
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia
A country rarely fights the same war twice in one generation, especially from opposite sides. Yet that in many ways describes the U.S. role in Afghanistan today. In the 1980s, the Central Intelligence Agency, working from a safe haven in Pakistan, engineered the largest covert operation in its history to help defeat the Soviet 40th Red Army in Afghanistan. Today, the United States is fighting a Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan that operates from a safe haven in Pakistan. Many suggest that the outcome will be the same for the United States as it was for the Soviet Union—ultimate defeat at the hands of the insurgency. Pakistan's role as a safe haven is remarkably consistent in both conflicts, but focusing exclusively on that similarity misses the fundamental differences between the two wars. This article will address those differences, and will also assess how Pakistan's role is impacting the United States' possibilities for success today.
Topic:
NATO
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Taliban, and Soviet Union
In the wake of a conceptually flawed peace agreement, the Taliban takeover of large parts of Malakand division, subsequent military action in the area, almost three million internally displaced persons (IDPs) have fled to camps, homes, schools and other places of shelter across Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). The challenge for the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)-led government and international actors is to make relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts responsive to needs and empower local communities in Malakand Division. Failure to do so will reverse any gains on the battlefield and boost radical Islamist groups.
President Barack Obama publicly unveiled his administration's so-called AfPak (Afghanistan-Pakistan) strategy on March 27, 2009. Over the subsequent weeks, the White House has also briefed relevant congressional leaders and committees, the media, NATO allies, and other regional and international partners. The U.S. House of Representatives has moved ahead with its own legislative debate (the PEACE bill), and the administration recently submitted a 2009 supplemental budget request consistent with its new strategy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Terrorism, War, and Counterinsurgency
Al-Qa`ida's strategy in Pakistan remains intentionally opaque, but has demonstrably shifted in recent years to promote increased confrontation with the Pakistani state. Al-Qa`ida's fighters originally used Pakistan as a key logistics base and facilitation point for the Afghan and Arab mujahidin during the 1980s, but since 2001 Pakistan has served primarily as an operational safe haven where al-Qa`ida and its affiliates can plan local, regional and international terrorist attacks. Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and smaller parts of Baluchistan and the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) comprise al-Qa`ida's physical center of gravity. Increasingly, however, al-Qa`ida has utilized its media prowess and ideological authority to discredit the Pakistani state and promote cooperation among a variety of Pakistani militants to challenge the state's authority and undermine its support for U.S. efforts in Afghanistan.
It is the world's biggest and fastest human displacement in over a decade. The offensive launched by the Pakistan army against armed militants in North West Frontier Province (NWFP) at the end of April 2009 has resulted in a massive exodus requiring an enormous humanitarian response. Although exact numbers are difficult to verify, at least two million women, men, and children fled their homes in the districts of Swat, Dir and Buner, mostly during May. In late May, the UN refugee agency (UNHCR) was registering 126,000 newly displaced people per day.
Relations between Pakistan and the United States are today defined by a paradox. Never have ties been more vital for both countries. But never has the relationship been so mired in mutual mistrust and suspicion.
Al-Qa`ida has made numerous statements about a desire to obtain nuclear weapons for use against the United States and Western interests. While many of these statements are rhetorical hyperbole, the scale of the potential destructiveness of nuclear weapons, the instability and “nuclear porosity” of the context in Pakistan, and the vulnerabilities within Pakistan's nuclear safety and security arrangements mean that the risks of terrorist groups gaining access to nuclear materials are real. Moreover, militants have recently attacked a number of Pakistan's nuclear facilities, including an August 20, 2008 incident at the Wah cantonment, widely understood to be one of Pakistan's main nuclear weapons assembly sites.
This policy brief looks at the underlying causes of weak governance and poor interaction between Pakistan's institutions and its citizens. Factors are broadly organized in three dimensions: structural, including geopolitical position, historical backdrop and social structures; the distribution and exercise of power; and Pakistan's current state of affairs.