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11. The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Strategic Stability and Nuclear Risk, Volume III, South Asian Perspectives

Author:
Peter Topychkanov, Sanatan Kulshrestha, Yanitra Kumaraguru, Malinda Meegoda, Kritika Roy, Saima Aman Sial, Dmitry Stefanovich, and Maaike Verbruggen
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This edited volume is the third in a series of three. The series forms part of a SIPRI project that explores regional perspectives and trends related to the impact that recent advances in artificial intelligence could have on nuclear weapons and doctrines, as well as on strategic stability and nuclear risk. This volume assembles the perspectives of eight experts on South Asia on why and how machine learning and autonomy may become the focus of an arms race among nuclear-armed states. It further explores how the adoption of these technologies may have an impact on their calculation of strategic stability and nuclear risk at the regional and transregional levels.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Power, Cybersecurity, Political stability, Disarmament, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, South Asia, India, East Asia, and Global Focus

12. Crisis from Kolkata to Kabul: COVID-19’s Impact on South Asia

Author:
Husain Haqqani and Aparna Pande
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
The world’s most populous region, South Asia, with almost 1.9 billion people living in eight countries, has so far had fewer reported infections and fatalities per capita from the novel coronavirus than projected in early models. However, the region is unlikely to escape the widespread disruption and damage felt across the globe, and its worst health-care crisis may be yet to come. In South Asia, as in other regions, the COVID-19 pandemic is testing the capacities of states to provide security and effective healthcare and to maintain essential services. It is also having an impact on fragile democratic institutions and societal bonds, in addition to putting considerable strains on the economy. [...] Following is a country-by-country report, with inputs from experts on the ground, on the coronavirus pandemic’s impact in South Asia and its human, economic, and political consequences.
Topic:
Economics, Health, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, South Asia, India, Asia, and Sri Lanka

13. Broken, but Not Defeated: An Examination of State-led Operations against Islamic State Khorasan in Afghanistan and Pakistan (2015-2018)

Author:
Amira Jadoon and Andrew Mines
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Since its official formation in January 2015, the Islamic State’s affiliate in Afghanistan and Pakistan has risen to prominence as one of its most dangerous affiliates, making it one of the world’s top four deadliest militant organizations in 2018. Islamic State Khorasan’s (ISK) ascendency, however, has not come without heavy costs. Since 2015, a variety of state-led operations against ISK have inflicted substantial manpower and leadership losses upon the group across Afghanistan and Pakistan. This report is the first to conduct a systematic review of operations against ISK between 2015 and 2018 to answer the following questions: what is the nature and level of manpower losses incurred by ISK in various campaigns against the group? How have these operations altered the level of the ISK threat, and what do they reveal about ISK’s militant base? Finally, how have these operations affected ISK’s operational capacity? This report draws on open-source materials to assess the above questions, and provides detailed information on the various state-led operations against ISK in Afghanistan and Pakistan and the group’s associated costs in terms of losses of both leadership and other ISK-linked individuals. As this report demonstrates, intense targeting of ISK in both countries has resulted in substantial losses for the group; between 2015 and 2018, ISK’s losses amounted to the killing, capture, or surrender of well over 10,000 ISK-linked individuals and over 500 militants in leadership roles, predominantly in Afghanistan. A parallel examination of the group’s losses and its operational activity indicates that while state-led operations have curtailed ISK’s overall number of attacks and its geographical expansion, the group has retained its ability to conduct highly lethal attacks, as evidenced by recently claimed attacks in Kabul in late February and early March 2020. The report’s findings also imply that one of ISK’s key strengths, which has allowed it to survive the onslaught of state-led operations, is its access to a steady supply of experienced militants on both sides of the border that allows it to replace its top leaders and replenish its human capital.
Topic:
Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

14. India’s Role in Afghan Peace Process

Author:
Ghulam Mustafa, Aamir Junaid, Rana Basam Khan, and Imran Wakil
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The disastrous event of 9/11 changed the Political and Security dynamics of the world. The event of 9/11 provided a chance for India to enter into Afghanistan. Afghanistan attracts the world powers due to its strategic importance. Afghanistan is a gateway to the energy rich Central Asian Republics. India’s involvement in Afghanistan is quite realistic. India had never established cordial relations with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. The event of 9/11 gave India a chance to establish cordial relations with the Afghan political government. India participated in the Bonn Conference and announced its support for the people of Afghanistan in the reconstruction of the country. India enjoyed its best relations with the governments of Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani in Kabul. India enhanced its ties with Iran to secure its interest in Afghanistan and to counter Pakistan. India and Iran have some common interests in Afghanistan. New Delhi has invested a big amount in various sectors in Afghanistan to enhance its influence in Afghan society. India has worked hard to facilitate Afghan Nationals to boost its soft power. India now influences the internal politics of Afghanistan. The world considers India a major market in South Asia. India’s presence in Afghanistan has always been a source of worry for Pakistan. Pakistan considers India’s presence in Afghanistan a threat to its National Security. Pakistan thinks India should work for the betterment of Afghan people but she should avoid using Afghan soil against Pakistan. Pakistan has already suffered a lot due to the disturbance in Afghanistan. Peaceful Afghanistan is in the favor of South Asia and for the Global Powers. This paper focuses on the Indian presence in Afghanistan and India’s role to bring peace in Afghanistan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Taliban, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, and India

15. Pakistan People’s Party and Foreign Policy Priorities: (2008-2013): An Analysis

Author:
Riffat Mahmood and Rehana Saeed Hashmi
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Owing to the changing dynamics of state relations, scholarly attention has increased toward the domestic policy influence on foreign policy. In this regard, political parties are considered the main drivers in foreign policy formulation in parliamentary democracies. To comprehend the influence of the party on the agenda or formulation of governmental foreign policy, there is a need to examine the link between party manifesto and foreign policy priorities. The case of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) would be under consideration during the period from 2008-2013. This is an attempt to explore the foreign policy priorities given in the manifesto of Pakistan People’s Party (2008) with its practical implementations. It is observed that dichotomy prevails between the manifesto and practical implementations of PPP’s performance. The government of PPP has remained unsuccessful to implement its foreign policy priorities in true letter and spirit as promised in the party manifesto.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, History, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

16. Perspectives on Afghan Refugee identity in Pakistan

Author:
Muhammad Najam Ud din Farani
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Afghan refugees in Pakistan are a classical example of refugee-war nexus. They have been historically conditioned by wars and internal conflicts inside Afghanistan. The conflict within Afghanistan which has historically conditioned Afghan refugees has spanned for more than four decades. This study is an attempt to contextualize history, demographics, institutes, national policy and different factors that have conditioned the identity of Pakistani Afghan refugee community. This study also attempt to explore different perspectives on the identity of Afghan refugee community inside Pakistan.
Topic:
Refugees, Conflict, 9/11, Identity, and Soviet Union
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and South Asia

17. Policy Decisions and Evidence Use among Civil Servants: A Group Decision Experiment in Pakistan

Author:
Laura Metzger, Theodore Svoronos, and Adnan Qadir Khan
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
In a lab-in-field experiment with elite civil servants in Pakistan, we investigate whether groups outperform individuals in a two-staged task which requires effective use of data and evidence. We also study how efficiently groups harness their members’ individual knowledge for problem-solving. We do not find a significant difference in individual (first stage) and group performance (second stage). Yet, groups could have significantly improved their performance during the second stage of the task, had they more efficiently collaborated to retrieve their members’ respective knowledge. Carefully interpreted in the setting of our experiment, our data suggests that diversity in individual knowledge may hamper effective use of data and evidence for decision- making in small groups of policymakers.
Topic:
Education, Public Policy, and Civil Servants
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

18. Urban Drivers of Political Violence

Author:
Antonio Sampaio
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The demographic trend of urbanisation, while not a cause of conflict, exacerbates local tensions and weak governance. It also creates an urgent need to understand the policy challenges that exist in cities such as Mogadishu, Nairobi, Kabul and Karachi. The rate of growth of the urban population in the four countries covered by this study was above the global average for the 2015–20 period – and more than double the average in the cases of Kenya and Somalia. With the exception of Pakistan, these countries also registered higher urban population growth in 2018 than the average for fragile and conflict-affected countries, which was 3.2%. Typically built without formal land rights, lacking basic public services, and featuring low-quality housing in overcrowded conditions, slums are perhaps the most visible characteristic of cities undergoing rapid and unmanaged urbanisation. But they are not the only one. Cities located in or near areas where armed conflict is taking place also tend to be split by several dividing lines – between slums and the rest of the city, between ethnic groups, between licit and illicit (often criminal) economies, and between violent and safe areas. Whereas many of these divisions may be part of broader national problems, their geographical concentration in the limited confines of a city creates distinctly urban drivers of violence, and therefore requires tailored policies in response. These divisions, exacerbated by the rapid urbanisation process, have contributed to a decline in state authority – governmental capacity to enforce rules, monopoly over the use of force, taxation and other state prerogatives – at the municipal level. In cities, therefore, security and governance go hand in hand. The existence of organised armed groups able to replace key state functions makes the challenges in cities affected by armed conflict particularly urgent. This report sheds light on the ways in which cities contribute to the weakening of state authority, and aims to provide a basis for the formulation of better, more tailored policies.
Topic:
Political Violence, Demographics, Urban, Housing, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kenya, Africa, Middle East, Somalia, Nairobi, Karachi, Kabul, and Mogadishu

19. China’s BRI: The Security Dimension

Author:
David F Gordon, Haoyu Tong, and Tabatha Anderson
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
In this second report published by the IISS Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Project under the Geo-Economics, Geopolitics and Strategy Programme, the authors examine a range of security-related challenges that the BRI confronts as it expands into diverse geographies to China’s west and south. The report explores the risks in operating across environments fraught with political, economic and social instability. Beyond this, it delves into the actual and potential challenges that the BRI faces from Islamic extremism and terrorism. The report also assesses the ways in which the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) fits into China’s growing strategic interests in Southeast Asia, and the development of the Digital Silk Road (DSR) at the forefront of the technological and geopolitical competition between China and the United States. Finally, the report explores the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as a case study of the security risks and governance challenges present in what is probably the single most important country-wide BRI endeavour.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Infrastructure, Hegemony, Digital Economy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Silk Road
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, and Asia

20. UN Human Rights Council Elections for 2021-2023 and the Responsibility to Protect

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
Today, 13 October, the UN General Assembly elected Bolivia, China, Côte d’Ivoire, Cuba, France, Gabon, Malawi, Mexico, Nepal, Pakistan, Russia, Senegal, Ukraine, United Kingdom and Uzbekistan to the Human Rights Council (HRC) for the 2021-2023 term. With the elections of Côte d’Ivoire, France, Mexico, Senegal and United Kingdom, 16 of the 47 Council members during 2021 will also be members of the Group of Friends of the Responsibility to Protect in Geneva. The Human Rights Council and its mechanisms – including the Universal Periodic Review (UPR), special procedures and treaty bodies, as well as the technical assistance provided by the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) – all play an essential role in providing early warning of the risk factors that can lead to crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing, war crimes and genocide.
Topic:
Human Rights, United Nations, Elections, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and UN Human Rights Council (HRC)
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, China, United Kingdom, Ukraine, France, Uzbekistan, Cuba, Nepal, Mexico, Senegal, Bolivia, Malawi, Côte d'Ivoire, Global Focus, and Gabon