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21. December 2018 Issue

Author:
Michael Knights, Brian Dodwell, Harun Maruf, Dan Joseph, Amira Jadoon, Sara Mahmood, Bennett Clifford, and Seamus Hughes
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
After its pivot to insurgency, is the Islamic State losing power or preserving strength in Iraq? This is the research question posed by Michael Knights in this month’s cover article. Attack metrics, he writes, “paint a picture of an insurgent movement that has been ripped down to its roots,” but also one that is vigorously working to reboot by focusing “on a smaller set of geographies and a ‘quality over quantity’ approach to operations.” Knights warns that “the Iraqi government is arguably not adapting fast enough to the demands of counterinsurgency, suggesting the need for intensified and accelerated support from the U.S.-led coalition in order to prevent the Islamic State from mounting another successful recovery.” Our interview is with Mark Mitchell, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations/Low-Intensity Conflict, who was among the first U.S. soldiers on the ground in Afghanistan after 9/11. Mitchell previously served as a Director for Counterterrorism on the National Security Council where he was intimately involved in significant hostage cases and recovery efforts in Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Somalia. He was also instrumental in establishing the framework for the landmark Presidential Policy Review of Hostage Policy. Dan Joseph and Harun Maruf, the authors of the recently published book Inside Al-Shabaab: The Secret History of Al-Qaeda’s Most Powerful Ally, explain why the group remains a significant threat inside Somalia. Amira Jadoon and Sara Mahmood examine recent plans circulated by the Pakistani Taliban under its new leader Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud to try to reverse the group’s decline. Bennett Clifford and Seamus Hughes document the case of Aws Mohammed Younis al-Jayab, a returned foreign fighter to the United States who pleaded guilty in October 2018 to material support to a terrorist organization. His case sheds new light on cross-border foreign fighter recruitment networks in the United States and Europe, and the potential threat they pose.
Topic:
Terrorism, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Conflict, Al Shabaab, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Iraq, Middle East, North Africa, Somalia, and United States of America

22. Rise of Extremism and Growing Threats of Transnational Terrorism

Author:
Murad Ali and Reema Murad
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Extremism, though not a new phenomenon, has undergone complete metamorphosis in the South Asian context. While in Sri Lanka, the discriminatory policy of ruling Sinhalese towards Tamil minority was reason of latter’s taking up arms to assert their identity, India is inflicting war on the assertive Kashmiris who are struggling for the recognition of their right of self-determination. At the same time, the ultra-right government of the BJP is encouraging religious extremism. With his baggage of Gujarat pogrom, Prime Minister Modi is treading a dangerous path of fanning Hindu nationalism. Afghanistan was subjected to the communist elements under the Babrak Karmal regime which had the backing of the Soviet Union and the traditional Afghan society was not receptive to the foreign ideology. People stood up against the direct Soviet intervention which they took as heretic. They were supported in their armed struggle by the US and Pakistan. As Soviets withdrew ignominiously from Afghanistan, the warlords went into civil war to assert themselves which created a vacuum filled by the Taliban. The US attacked Afghanistan to remove Taliban who were thought to have be harbouring the perpetrators of September 11, 2001 attack. The Kabul government however couldn’t win the confidence of the people and Taliban resurgence has cost the country dearly with ramifications for Pakistan. The element of extremism and violence was introduced in Pakistan was in Afghanistan after the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in 1979 and got different and colossal dimensions post September 11, 2001 tragedy. In Pakistan, the Tehrik i Taliban Pakistan were formed after the Lal Masjid operation. There is hardly any parallel in history to match the devastating terrorist rampages costing huge loss of life and property. Unfortunately, the neighbouring India is fishing in the troubled waters to achieve some petty gains. While Afghanistan has its own circumstances and hence its responses to end the imbroglio, Pakistan has a long way to go end the menace of extremism as well as terrorism, of course in conjunction with Afghanistan, without which peace cannot return to the region.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, and Transnational Actors
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Sri Lanka

23. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 9, Issue 03: ‘IS Terrorist Attacks and Battlefront Losses’

Author:
Iftekharul Bashar, Remy Mahzam, and Marcin Styszynski
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
In the last several weeks, the Islamic State (IS) terrorist group and its affiliates have demonstrated their continued ability to direct and conduct high-casualty and high-impact attacks in and outside their strongholds in Iraq and Syria. On 10 February, a car bomb struck Baghdad killing 10 people and wounding 33 others. Six days later, a suicide bombing at a Sufi shrine in Sindh (Pakistan) killed over 80 people and injured 250. The latest (8 March) is the attack on a military hospital in central Kabul which killed 49 people and injured over 60. The global terrorism situation remains grim as IS continues to plot more attacks and exploits social media to subvert the alienated and disgruntled to its jihadist cause. On the battlefields in Iraq and Syria, however, IS is on the retreat, pounded by the US-led Coalition as well as Russian and Syrian forces. The Coalition forces are making significant progress in their offensive to retake western Mosul, capturing its airport, military base and main government complex. IS fighters are outnumbered and experts expect western Mosul to fall in coming months. On the Syrian front, IS has lost Palmyra again, after recapturing it in December last year, and is coming under attack in its de facto capital Raqqa. Some 400 US Marines have been sent to assist in the allied operation to retake Raqqa. It would not be long before more comprehensive, co-ordinated and forceful plans are implemented to defeat IS as well as other jihadist groups. With the likely imminent defeat of IS on the battlefronts, it is timely to discuss the global threat landscape in a post-caliphate scenario. Marcin Styszynski, in his article, highlights four factors that will influence the threat trajectory: the strategic withdrawal of IS into smaller Sunni strongholds to carry out operations and attacks, the expansion of threat frontlines by IS’ associated networks and returning fighters, the rise of sectarian and religious tensions, as well as the competition between Al Qaeda and IS. The author concludes by emphasising the need to address the root causes of political conflict and instability if the significant successes of the Coalition forces in the last two years are not to be in vain. This March issue also examines IS jihadist propaganda and information warfare in cyberspace. Remy Mahzam highlights the great emphasis IS places on online propaganda, and the significance of its propaganda magazine Rumiyah (Rome). He looks at IS calls for various forms of attacks to be executed, and attempts to influence specific groups of readers through exploitation of religious texts and powerful emotional and spiritual messaging. He concludes by spelling out what needs to be done to counter IS digital warfare. Iftekharul Bashar looks at the threat in Bangladesh, six months after the Dhaka Café attack and argues that even though the security establishment has weakened IS through hard approaches, the group is far from eliminated. In his view, the current administration needs to adopt a long-term approach to tackle the broader issue of radicalisation and the diverse threat emanating from IS, Al Qaeda and other associated groups in the country.
Topic:
Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, North Africa, Syria, Southeast Asia, and Global Focus

24. Epidemiological Insurgency: Polio Persistence on the Afghanistan-Pakistan Border

Author:
Rand Quinn
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
Despite a profound global impact over the first half of the twentieth century, polio is largely an afterthought throughout the developed world. Vaccines engineered in the late 1950s paved the way for a precipitous drop in global disease burden with the onset of the World Health Organization-led (WHO) Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) starting in 1988. Recent indicators of the program’s success include a declaration of eradication in India[1] and a teeteringly low infection rate in Nigeria;[2] two of the disease’s last bastions. This progress, however, has been notably stifled by the steady persistence of a wild poliovirus reservoir centered in northern Pakistan along the Afghanistan-Pakistan (Af-Pak) border. Throughout significant portions of recorded history this region’s volatility has been well-documented, including a currently sustained network for the training of terrorist fighters dating back to the period of the 1979 Afghan-Soviet War.[3] These networks serve to both attract fledgling radical jihadist recruits and supply fighters globally, markedly providing many of the transnational fighters taking part in the Syrian Civil War. Their movement in and out of the Af-Pak region has provided a major disease vector for poliovirus. The location of a terrorist network transit hub in by far the world’s largest remaining reservoir of wild poliovirus poses a major challenge for policymakers. Due to several factors, including a decline in healthcare infrastructure throughout the western world, the situation presents a legitimate epidemiological threat. However, the issue is more importantly an exemplar of the morphing nature of multidimensional threats, which are likely to become more prevalent in an era of globalization, failed states, and an inability to effectively address social issues amidst the threat of kinetic warfare...
Topic:
Security, Environment, Health, Terrorism, World Health Organization, Infectious Diseases, and Borders
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, Middle East, and United States of America

25. Nuclear Terrorism in South Asia: Potential Threats/Challenges and Options: Post 9/11 Analysis

Author:
Iram Khalid and Arifa Kayani
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Nuclear terrorism has emerged as one of the principal concerns for states maintaining nuclear weapons technology as well as states maintaining peaceful nuclear programs. The idea is that non-state entities, in pursuance of their goals of achieving maximum tactical leverage over states, aspire to either jeopardize nuclear facilities as a means to warrant a radiological anomaly or would, in worst case scenario, acquire or construct weaponized devices. The concept of Improvised Nuclear Device (IND) or Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) is both argued as a plausibility and as a reality in current global technological layout. More specified to South Asia, where non-state entities are allegedly employed for transnational target acquisition and the where the security paradigms are hampered by technological inferiority, it is speculatively concluded that chances of such occurrences are marginally higher as compare to other nations. Vulnerabilities of South Asia pertaining to radiological terrorism are extended internationally based upon proliferation patterns in South Asia, utilization of proxies for achievement of leverage, comparative technological inferiority of nuclear facilities and auxiliary systems, spread and introduction of terrorism in South Asia, lack of understanding of nuclear terrorism and inability to proactively participate in international non-proliferation regimes and designs. Important considerations in these regards would then have to focus on efficacy of security infrastructure from production to disposal and from civilian to military nuclear installations. Where in South Asia, states have maintained secrecy and state control over nuclear installations, radiological terrorism seems a highly unlikely scenario postulation but being cautious is still operationally necessary.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, Infrastructure, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Punjab

26. Pakistan’s war on Terrorism and 9/11

Author:
Ghazala Abbas and Umbreen Javaid
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Pakistan came into clash with the U.S. in 2011 over its long-standing backing of Islamist activists. The executing of Osama bin laden raised many questions against Pakistan’s intelligence agencies. On the other hand law and order situation became worse. Pakistan’s different clashes, and also Pakistan Taliban savagery, keep on claiming a great many lives. Economically Pakistan was not in a position to provide job opportunities for upcoming population. Both the government and military authorities seem unwilling to roll out basic financial improvements to pull in essential worldwide developmental aid.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Foreign Aid, Counter-terrorism, and Islamism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Punjab

27. Islamic State Enters Al-Qaeda’s Old Hotbed: Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:
Mona Kanal Sheikh
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
The Islamic State (IS) movement has opened a new chapter in the Afpak region, changing the landscape of militant movements in the area. This article looks at the patterns of rivalry and collaboration between the Islamic State on one side and Al-Qaeda and Taliban-related movements on the other. It also surveys the way Al-Qaeda has developed during the past years where most of the international attention has been devoted to the formation of IS in Iraq/Syria, and shows that Al-Qaeda is still active, though it has become more locally oriented. Finally, the article looks at the prospects for the further expansion of IS especially in Pakistan where, on one side, a range of sectarian anti-Shia movements that resonate with parts of the IS agenda while, on the other side, there is no ideological tradition for embracing the kind of caliphate-jihadism that the IS advocates.
Topic:
Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Al Qaeda, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

28. September 2017 Issue

Author:
Ali Soufan, Paul Cruickshank, Don Rassler, Colleen McCue, Joseph T. Massengill, Dorothy Milbrandt, John Gaughan, Meghan Cumpston, Nicholas Blanford, and Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Sixteen years after 9/11, al-Qa`ida has a new figurehead (if not a new face) in the form of Hamza bin Ladin. On September 14, the group released an audio statement from Usama bin Ladin’s son calling for jihadis to double down on jihad in Syria and against what he depicted as an American-Russian-Shi`a conspiracy against Islam. It is not clear where Hamza, who is now in his late 20s, is currently based. So protective has al-Qa`ida been that the group has not circulated images of him since he was a child. In our cover article, Ali Soufan tells Hamza’s life story based on a wide range of sources, including recently declassified documents from Abbottabad. He argues that Hamza bin Ladin has not only emerged as al-Qa`ida’s leader in waiting, but is also the figure best placed to reunify the global jihadi movement as the Islamic State’s fortunes wane. Soufan points out Hamza’s hardening rhetoric toward Shi`a may represent an effort to attract deflated Islamic State fighters back into the al-Qa`ida fold. In our interview, Brian Fishman, Facebook’s Counterterrorism Policy Manager, provides a detailed description of how Facebook is using artificial intelligence and a dedicated team of counterterrorism specialists to remove terrorism content from its platform. Given the emergence of a new generation of leadership within al-Qa`ida, it is critical to understand the evolving threat from the group in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. Don Rassler outlines how arrest metrics in the mega-city of Karachi point to an uptick in activity by the resilient group. Colleen McCue, Colonel Joseph Massengill, Commander Dorothy Milbrandt, Lieutenant Colonel John Gaughan, and Major Meghan Cumpston outline how the Islamic State is “weaponizing children.” Nicholas Blanford reports from Lebanon on offensives this past summer by the Lebanese Armed Forces and Hezbollah against Sunni militants in the country. Aymenn al-Tamimi draws on newly obtained documents to examine the Islamic State’s posture toward Kurds.
Topic:
Terrorism, Armed Forces, Counter-terrorism, Radicalization, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Youth, Hezbollah, and Kurds
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, Middle East, and Lebanon

29. Peshawar School Massacre, Pakistan: A Qualitative Account of Citizens' Perceptions

Author:
Fatima Asim and Muhammad Bilal
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
On 16th December 2014, Army Public School and College (APSAC), Warsak road, Peshawar, located in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan, was attacked by more than six militants dressed as Pakistan Army Soldiers which resulted in killing of 149 people, mostly innocent children. After this attack, Government with the collaboration of Military took immediate steps for the eradication of terrorists from Pakistan and announced National Action Plan (NAP). Based on Master’s Fieldwork in Rawalpindi city, this study explores peoples’ reasoning to why such an attack took place? The paper further investigates whether the citizens of Rawalpindi are satisfied with the counter-terrorism steps taken immediately after the Peshawar incident. The locale of the study was Rawalpindi’s Union Council number 30. This qualitative study used purposive sampling techniques to draw a heterogeneous sample of 31 participants in order to conduct In-depth interviews.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Taliban, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

30. Karachi: Organized Crime in a Key Megacity

Author:
Nazia Hussain and Louise Shelley
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
Crime and terror groups are key non-state actors in Karachi and employ crime and violence to achieve political and economic gains. They have a different relationship with the state than crime groups in Italy where the state has more resources to share with the crime groups. Instead, much more complex relationships exist between the state and the non-state actors in this difficult environment where crime and terror groups have become a part of diffuse governance of the city, including provision of housing and water. Our analysis differs from others who suggest that crime and terror groups have stepped into a power void. We suggest that the political parties rather than the crime and terror groups are at the forefront of violent and criminalized politics. Therefore, violent non-state actors are not the ultimate arbiters of the political order. Crime and terror groups remain vulnerable as they may lose the state’s support and without this they face difficulty surviving in this highly competitive environment.
Topic:
Crime, Terrorism, Non State Actors, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Middle East, and Karachi