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51. Discord in Pakistan's Northern Areas

Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Almost six decades after Pakistan's independence, the constitutional status of the Federally Administered Northern Areas (Gilgit and Baltistan), once a part of the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir and now under Pakistani control, remains undetermined, with political autonomy a distant dream. The region's inhabitants are embittered by Islamabad's unwillingness to devolve power to its elected representatives, and a nationalist movement, which seeks independence, is gaining ground. The rise of sectarian extremism is an alarming consequence of this denial of basic political rights. Taking advantage of the weaknesses in the imposed dispensation, religious organisations espousing a narrow sectarian agenda are fanning the fires of sectarian hatred in a region where Sunnis, Shias and Ismailis have peacefully coexisted for several centuries.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, and Government
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Asia, and Kashmir

52. Winding Back Martial Law in Pakistan

Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
General Pervez Musharraf imposed martial law in Pakistan on 3 November 2007. He suspended the constitution, sacked the chief justice of the Supreme Court and removed other judges of that court who declared his act illegal. Police immediately began arresting lawyers, politicians and human rights activists. Independent television channels were taken off the air and reporting restrictions imposed. Thousands have since been jailed, journalists threatened and protests by lawyers and others suppressed. Replacing dissenting judges with hand-picked appointees, and ruling by decree, Musharraf's objective is to retain personal power by gaining judicial approval for martial law, followed by the creation of a democratic façade through rigged elections. The international community should demand the immediate restoration of constitutional order, the rule of law and the legitimate judiciary, the release of political prisoners and the appointment of an impartial caretaker government to oversee free and fair elections.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

53. Building Blocks, Stumbling Blocks: Prospects for Peace in Kashmir

Author:
Heather Coyne
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The U.S. Institute of Peace recently hosted Farooq Kathwari, head of the Kashmir Study Group, to discuss the prospects for peace in Kashmir. Kathwari's personal involvement and commitment to the peace process give him a unique ability to see potential for a way around the obstacles in this seemingly intractable conflict. During the session, Chester Crocker, a member of the Kashmir Study Group and a USIP board member, described those obstacles in more depth, providing a framework for analyzing what peacemaking efforts like Kathwari's have been able to achieve and which aspects of the process remain fragile. This USIPeace Briefing highlights the central points made during that discussion and does not represent the views of the Institute, which does not advocate specific policies.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, India, and Kashmir

54. Kashmir: A Problem in Search of a Solution

Author:
Shahid Javed Burki
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The ongoing territorial dispute between India and Pakistan over the status of the contested areas of Jammu and Kashmir (henceforth Kashmir) is well known and well documented. This study acknowledges that any resolution of this dispute may be many years in the making. Thus, rather than proposing solutions to the territorial conflict, the study explores the utility of forging enhanced economic opportunities for the people of the region and argues that doing so may prepare the ground for the eventual resolution of the dispute. Many of the proposals advanced here will require all the parties to the dispute—India, Pakistan, and the people of the divided state of Kashmir—to agree on a suite of programs that would bring about positive economic change from which there cannot be any turning back. I believe that such positive change would create vested interests and beneficiaries that would resist any retrenchment from continued progress.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:
Pakistan, India, and Kashmir

55. Dysfunction of an Ideological State: Pakistan's Recurrent Crisis in Historic Context

Author:
Hussain Haqqani
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
In the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, Pakistan's President Musharraf has taken on the mantle of a leader dedicated to transforming his country from an Islamic ideological state to a moderate Muslim country. Are Musharraf's policies really aimed at changing Pakistan's direction or are they simply part of an effort to salvage a critical policy paradigm adopted by Pakistan's militaryled oligarchy since the country's early days? The author defines the core elements of Pakistani grand strategy by focusing on a policy tripod: the emphasis on Islam as an element of national policy empowered the new country's religious leaders; the inflexibility in relations with India and the belief that India represented an existential threat to Pakistan justified maintaining a large military which, in turn, helped the military assert its dominance in the country's life, and finally; the search for foreign allies who could pay for the country's defense and economic growth resulted in Pakistan's alliance with the West, especially the United States. If Pakistan does not transcend the dynamic created by an ideology defined by the mosque and an overly dominant military, it runs the risk of becoming a failed state with nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, India, and Asia

56. Pakistan: The Worsening Conflict in Balochistan

Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
President Pervez Musharraf and the military are responsible for the worsening of the conflict in Balochistan. Tensions between the government and its Baloch opposition have grown because of Islamabad's heavy-handed armed response to Baloch militancy and its refusal to negotiate demands for political and economic autonomy. The killing of Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti in August 2006 sparked riots and will likely lead to more confrontation. The conflict could escalate if the government insists on seeking a military solution to what is a political problem and the international community, especially the U.S., fails to recognise the price that is involved for security in neighbouring Afghanistan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

57. India, Pakistan and Kashmir: Stabilising a Cold Peace?

Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
When the third round of the normalisation talks concludes in July 2006, India and Pakistan will be no closer than when they began the process in February 2004 to resolving differences, including over Kashmir. What they call their "composite dialogue" has helped reduce tensions and prevent a return to the climate of 2001-2002, when they were on the verge of all-out war, but progress has been limited to peripheral issues. India's prime minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, and Pakistan's president, General Pervez Musharraf, have reiterated commitments to sustain the dialogue. It is unrealistic, however, to expect radical change. International, particularly U.S. support for the process will likely dissuade either side from pulling out but asymmetry of interests and goals militates against a major breakthrough. The need is to concentrate on maintaining a cold peace until a long process can produce an atmosphere in which the support of elected governments in both states might realistically bring a Kashmir solution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Middle East, India, and Kashmir

58. Resolving the Pakistan- Afghanistan Stalemate

Author:
Abubakar Siddique and Barnett R. Rubin
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Taliban and al Qaeda insurgencies today are equally active in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The nationalist insurgency in Pakistani Baluchistan, which Pakistani leaders assert receives support from Indian agents in Afghanistan, also aggravates relations between the two countries. The challenges of violent insurgency require both countries to address their relationship, particularly as it affects the border areas. Formation of such a policy is essential to the vital interests of the United States, NATO, and the international community, which has committed itself to the effort in Afghanistan through UN Security Council resolutions and other measures Afghanistan and Pakistan have had largely antagonistic relations under all governments but the Taliban since Pakistan was created as part of the partition of India in 1947. Some elements of friction were also inherited from conflicts between Afghanistan and India when it was under British imperial rule. Afghanistan's governments, including that of the Taliban, have never recognized the Durand Line between the two countries as an international border and have made claims on the Pashtun and Baluch regions of Pakistan. Today 's cross-border insurgencies, with their sanctuaries and support networks in Pakistan, are nurtured by the same sources as previous conflicts, as well as global Islamist movements. Arrangements to secure the frontier of the British Empire in the nineteenth century by isolating Afghanistan as a buffer state do not work for a twenty-first-century borderland integrated into networks of global conflict. The United States and other external powers that seek to support the new order in Afghanistan and stabilize both Pakistan and Afghanistan should encourage a multidimensional process of dialogue and peacebuilding focused on the problems of the border region. Pressure may also be needed to convince some actors to engage seriously in such a process, but pressure alone will not succeed. A process should work toward reforms in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan, leading to their integration into Pakistani national politics and administration; the recognition by Afghanistan of the international border; assured access by Afghanistan to Pakistani ports and transit facilities; the maintenance by both countries of open borders for trade, investment, and cultural relations; agreement by both countries and by India to keep the India-Pakistan dispute out of Afghanistan 's bilateral relations with both; and agreements on both sides to cease supporting or harboring violent opposition movements against the other. The United States, NATO, and the UN must agree to send a common message to Islamabad: that the persistence of Taliban havens in Pakistan is a threat to international peace and security that Pakistan must address immediately. They also must agree to urge Afghanistan and India to do all in their power to encourage Pakistan to make difficult decisions by addressing sources of Pakistani insecurity, including issues relating to the border region and Kashmir. They should actively promote this process and act as guarantors and funders of any agreements that result from it.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Government, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, United Kingdom, India, Taliban, and Kashmir

59. Pakistan and the Crescent of Crisis

Author:
Stephen P. Cohen
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Situated at the intersection of many American and European concerns, Pakistan has been linked to terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and Islamic extremism; it is politically unstable and economically problematic, and has recently undergone a series of crises, some with nuclear overtones, with India. Pakistan is also located at a geostrategic crossroad, bound to India by geography, culture, and chronic enmity; a self-proclaimed Islamic state with many ties to the Muslim and Arab worlds; long-standing ambitions in Afghanistan and We stand Central Asia, and en during military and strategic ties to China and North Korea.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, America, Europe, Central Asia, Middle East, and India

60. Kashmir: From Persistence to Progress?

Author:
Cyrus Samii
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Jammu and Kashmir (J) has been a continual bone of contention, the object of three wars and a theater of engagement in a fourth war, between the two countries. Since 1989, insurgency has consumed Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir (IJK), claiming at least 45,000 lives. All major attempts at resolution by the international community have failed, including those through the United Nations. With overt "nuclearization" by India and Pakistan in 1998, and with "jihadist" militants playing an increasingly prominent role in the insurgency since the mid-1990s, the Kashmir conflict also bears the marks of a distinctly twenty-first century security predicament.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Middle East, India, and Jammu and Kashmir