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661. The Problem with Redundancy Problem: Will more nuclear security forces produce nuclear security?

Author:
Scott D. Sagan
Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
After the September 11th, 2001 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, many scholars, journalists, and public officials expressed fears about the security of nuclear facilities in the United States. Terrorists could attack military bases, weapons in transit, or nuclear weapons production and dismantlement plants in order to steal a weapon or its components. Terrorists might attack nuclear power reactors, nuclear materials storage sites, nuclear waste transportation vehicles, or nuclear research facilities, with two basic motives in mind: to cause a conventional explosion, spreading radioactive materials in the area; or to seize the nuclear materials, which could be used for building either a dirty bomb (a radiological weapon) or, conceivably, a primitive nuclear bomb. These fears were highlighted in President George Bush's January 2002 State of the Union address, in which he reported that diagrams of American nuclear plants were discovered in al-Qaeda hideouts in Afghanistan. Senior U.S. intelligence officials also revealed that Osama bin Laden had sent operatives to try to purchase stolen nuclear materials and that there was “pretty convincing evidence” that al-Qaeda operatives had been “casing” nuclear power plants in the U.S. prior to the September 11th attacks. In January 2002, U.S. intelligence agencies issued a warning, based on an interrogation of a captured terrorist, of a possible attack on a nuclear power plant or Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear weapons facility. Then, in June 2002, the Justice Department announced that it had arrested an American citizen who had joined al-Qaeda in Pakistan and was sent back to the United States to develop and execute a plan to seize nuclear materials and use them in a radiological bomb attack.
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, America, and Middle East

662. An Indian Assault on Terrorism – The Military Option

Author:
Jon P. Dorschner
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
India has long endured terrorist attacks against its security forces and civilians, both in Indian Kashmir and in India proper, which it alleges are directed and financed by Pakistan. On Dec ember 13, a terrorist attack against the Indian parliament building in New Delhi appeared aimed at killing Indian members of parliament. India interpreted this as an “act of war,” mobilized its troops and threatened military action. This paper examines the options available to the Indian military, and determines that none of them are very attractive and are unlikely to cause serious damage to the terrorist infrastructure located in Pakistan controlled Kashmir, or in Pakistan proper.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir

663. Weapons of Mass Destruction in India and Pakistan

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
02-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
India continues its nuclear weapons development program, for which its underground nuclear tests in May 1998 were a significant milestone. The acquisition of foreign equipment will benefit New Delhi in its efforts to develop and produce more sophisticated nuclear weapons. During this reporting period, India continued to obtain foreign assistance for its civilian nuclear power program, primarily from Russia.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, South Asia, India, Asia, and New Delhi

664. Weapons of Mass Destruction in India and Pakistan

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
India continues its nuclear weapons development program, for which its underground nuclear tests in May 1998 were a significant milestone. The acquisition of foreign equipment will benefit New Delhi in its efforts to develop and produce more sophisticated nuclear weapons. During this reporting period, India continued to obtain foreign assistance for its civilian nuclear power program, primarily from Russia.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, South Asia, India, and Asia

665. American Diplomacy and the 1999 Kargil Summit at Blair House

Author:
Bruce Riedel
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
July 4th, 1999 was probably the most unusual July 4th in American diplomatic history, certainly among the most eventful. President Clinton engaged in one of the most sensitive diplomatic high wire acts of any administration, successfully persuading Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to pull back Pakistani backed fighters from a confrontation with India that could threaten to escalate into a nuclear war between the world's two newest nuclear powers. The events of that 4th accelerated the road to a fundamental reconciliation between the world's two largest democracies, India and the United States, but also set the scene for another in the series of military coups that have marred Pakistani democracy. As the President's Special Assistant for Near Eastern and South Asia Affairs at the National Security Council I had the honor of a unique seat at the table and the privilege of being a key adviser for the day's events.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, America, South Asia, India, and Asia

666. Impact of Globalization and Liberalization on Growth, Employment and Poverty: A Case Study of Pakistan

Author:
Tilat Anwar
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
While globalization is viewed as a key to future economic development, it is also argued that it increases poverty, threatens employment and living standards of the poor. Like many other developing countries, Pakistan also attempted to integrate its economy in the global economy through liberalizing its investment and trade regime within the framework of the IMF and the World Bank. A review of literature indicates that although a number of cross-country studies have shown a positive association between trade openness and economic growth, the recent work suggests that openness has no robust link with long-term growth. Thus, positive effects of liberalization on growth remain controversial. Evidence shows that despite numerous highly attractive incentives offered to foreign investors, Pakistan's performance in attracting the foreign investment has been poor. Similarly, despite the intensive trade liberalization, the trade performance has been dismal. The stabilization initially achieved proved to be short-lived due to the slippages in reform process occurred in the form of spread of tax exemption and concession leading to implementation of further stabilization measures. The repeated attempts to stabilize the economy together with liberalization and persistent devaluation of domestic currency pushed the economy in a vicious circle. The lowering of tariff rates led to a considerable loss of revenue and resulted in stagnant tax GDP ratio, resulting in reductio development expenditure to reduce the budget deficit. The government sought to restrain aggregate demand not only by granting wage increases below the inflation rate but also by freezing employment in the public sector. These developments together with liberalization led to lower GDP growth, increased indebtedness, higher unemployment and thus higher poverty incidence during the period of liberalization. This adverse outcome is reflection of the fact that the country was asked by the IMF to cut its tariff rates swiftly before adopting to a new system of domestic taxation. The structural adjustment programmes designed by the IMF/World Bank take the poverty as a residual issue. Hence, earlier anti-poverty programmes in Pakistan reached a small fraction of the poor, partly because their total size was limited and partly because of poor targeting. Hostility of globalization process suggests a broader approach and allocation of more funds for poverty reduction. For future growth and poverty reduction strategies, the issue of achieving higher growth must be combined with overall pattern of social progress and distribution.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Globalization
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

667. Managing Asia Pacific's Energy Dependence on the Middle East: Is There a Role for Central Asia?

Author:
Kang Wu and Fereidun Fesharaki
Publication Date:
06-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The Middle East is Asia Pacific's largest energy supplier, satisfying a demand for oil that must keep pace with the region's continued economic growth. This dependence on the Middle East has caused Asia Pacific to join the United States and other Western nations in the hunt for alternative suppliers. Central Asia, located between the Middle East and Asia Pacific and already an oil and gas exporter, is an attractive possibility. With energy production projected to rise rapidly over the next decade, Central Asia is poised to become a major player in the world energy market. But the land-locked region's options for transporting oil and gas to Asia Pacific markets are limited and problematic. Passage via pipeline east through China presents construction challenges; south through Iran, or through India and Pakistan via Afghanistan, is fraught with political difficulties. Not until geopolitics become more favorable to the south-bound options, or technologies make the China route possible, will Asia Pacific be able to tap the energy resources of Central Asia.
Topic:
Security and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, China, Iran, Middle East, and Asia

668. Kashmir: The View From Srinagar

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Recent state elections in Jammu and Kashmir, and the loss of power by the National Conference party that has dominated politics there since independence, have created a spark of hope that political tensions in the Kashmir Valley could de-escalate. It was a badly flawed election in 1987 that helped fuel a long running militant insurrection and general uprising, and tens of thousands have died in subsequent violence. Violence has been further amplified by historical strategic tensions between India and Pakistan over Jammu and Kashmir, and Kashmiri hopes for a political voice have often unfortunately become caught up in this broader international rivalry.
Topic:
Democratization, Regional Cooperation, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Pakistan, India, Kashmir, and Southeast Asia

669. Pakistan: Madrasas, Extremism And The Military

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
In its new role as key ally in the U.S.-led war on terrorism, Pakistan's military government has toned down many policies that previously fostered militancy and religious extremism within the country and internationally. Action against the Taliban, al-Qaeda and home-grown sectarian terrorists are examples. But the military's confrontation with its former religious allies is likely, at best, a short-term response compelled by circumstances and foreign pressure.
Topic:
Development, Education, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, and South Asia

670. Kashmir: Confrontation and Miscalculation

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
With tensions in Kashmir and the confrontation between Pakistan and India appearing to cool in recent weeks, it would be easy for the international community to focus its attention elsewhere. Unfortunately, the dynamics underpinning the conflict between India and Pakistan along the Line of Control (the de facto border dividing the two countries in Kashmir) have not changed, and the potential for strategic miscalculations by both sides and broader fighting remains all too real. Indeed, the heart of the dispute is being driven by both local political conditions in Kashmir and much more sweeping issues of national politics and national sovereignty in both countries. Further complicating the situation, both Pakistan and India have sought to use the U.S.-proclaimed “global war on terrorism” to their own tactical advantage, increasing the risk of military missteps.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, South Asia, India, and Kashmir