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161. Strategic Risk Reduction between Nuclear-Weapons Possessors

Author:
Corentin Brustlein
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The topic of nuclear risk reduction has gained momentum in the international security debate among policymakers, nongovernmental organizations, and experts. The current and expected demise of the traditional arms-control architecture, the renewed strategic competition, and the polarization of the multilateral debate on nuclear weapons have contributed to this renewed salience. Building upon the 2019 G7 Statement on Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, this report defines strategic risk reduction as the set of unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral measures that aim at lowering the likelihood of nuclear weapons use through improved communication, predictability, and restraint, and underlines the need to adopt a strategic approach to nuclear risk reduction. Risks emanating from conflict dynamics between nuclear powers are different in nature and severity from those arising from technical incidents. This report argues that in a context of growing geopolitical rivalries, diplomats should prioritize mitigating the former type of risk. Risk reduction efforts should aim at hindering the most dangerous behaviors in crisis time, through measures focusing both on nuclear forces and on nonnuclear capabilities, whose impact on strategic balances keeps growing. Strategic risk reduction can strengthen international security and strategic stability by complementing arms control measures and deterrence policies. It is therefore crucial to ensure that diplomatic initiatives aimed at limiting nuclear risks do not ultimately, and paradoxically, increase the risk of war. Historical experience shows not only the feasibility of such an approach, but also the concrete security benefits that can be derived from it, by channeling the behavior of nuclear powers in times of tensions, reducing the ambiguity inherent in certain strategies and behaviors, or laying the foundations for international regimes based on operational and strategic restraint as well as on transparency.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Disarmament, Deterrence, Strategic Stability, and Confidence Building Measures
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, China, United Kingdom, India, North Korea, France, and United States of America

162. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Author:
Ali Haider Saleem and Arhama Siddiqa
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
The term Silk Road is used by scholars to describe a network of trading posts and markets linking East Asia to the Mediterranean. In terms of geographical context, the editors of Baku Dialogues define the region as the “geographic space looking west past Anatolia to the warm seas beyond; north across the Caspian towards the Great Plain and the Great Steppe; east to the peaks of the Altai and the arid sands of the Taklamakan; and south towards the Hindu Kush and the Indus valley, looping down around in the direc­tion of the Persian Gulf and across the Fertile Crescent.” States falling under this parasol include China, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, the five Central Asian republics, Azerbaijan, and Russia. China’s Belt and Road Initia­tive (BRI), which traverses several continents, is a long‑term, strategic investment plan with the objective of facilitating economic integration of countries in line with the historic Silk Road. In April 2015, China’s President, Xi Jinping announced the China‑Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which amounts to BRI’s flagship project. This en­terprise, which encompasses road, rail, and oil pipeline links, will help Beijing advance its influence across South and Central Asia.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, and Silk Road
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, and Asia

163. In Vaccines We Trust? The Effects of the CIA’s Vaccine Ruse on Immunization in Pakistan

Author:
Monica Martinez-Bravo and Andreas Stegmann
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Trust in the medical sector and in medical products is a key determinant of the demand for health care. This is especially relevant for the use of vaccines. Because of herd immunity, it is difficult—if not impossible—to learn about the effectiveness of vaccines through one’s own experience. Hence, events that discredit the effectiveness of vaccines or the reputation of the medical sector can have dramatic consequences on immunization rates. A commonly discussed example of such dynamics was the publication of an article in the medical journal The Lancet in 1998 that linked autism to the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine. Media reports have associated this publication with the emergence of the anti‐​vaccine movement and with the recent rise in the number of unvaccinated children in several countries. The declines in vaccination rates have contributed to the reemergence of previously eradicated diseases in several countries.
Topic:
Public Health, Vaccine, and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

164. US Exit from Afghanistan: Impacts on Pakistan and India

Author:
Muhammad Muzaffar, Zahid Yaseen, and Naila Afzal
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The aim of this qualitative study is to explore the impacts, challenges, and opportunities for Pakistan and India if United States of America applies full exit policy in Afghanistan. USA invade Afghanistan after 9/11 incident, almost 20 years close to pass, and Barak Obama peace deal withdrawal from Afghanistan is shortly to apply till the 20th anniversary of the said incident. Whole world has fixed her attention on this issue that how would USA successfully exit from Afghanistan by applying adequate intra-Afghan peace deal having a number of interests in the region. Ramification of the study is that USA full exit from Afghanistan is nightmare and for peace process and development of the reign Pakistan and Afghanistan must be cooperate instead of playing in enemy’s hands. It is also recommended that Pakistan need to review foreign policy on sound basis for the preservation of her interests in Afghanistan.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, Economy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

165. Political Information Sharing through Facebook: A survey of Pakistani Netizens

Author:
Muhammad Sajid, Khalid Mahmood, Nosheen Fatima Warraich, and Humera Akhtar
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Political Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
People engage in online political debates through Facebook and online political information sharing leads to offline political participation. This study aims to analyse the use and influence of Facebook on the information-sharing practices of Pakistani netizens. A quantitative research design based on an online questionnaire survey was used to collect data from Pakistani netizens who were also active users of Facebook. Data showed that the majority of the respondents positively used Facebook during an election to enhance their political knowledge and participation. They also forwarded political information and influenced their friends to vote for a specific candidate in the election. The Facebook campaign had a positive influence on election results as well as the turnout of the election. Findings also revealed that demographic factors of respondents did not have any effect on their information sharing practices during a general election. Moreover, caution should be exhibited to avoid posting derogatory and appalling comments and fake news. The use of Facebook among educated netizens in the Pakistani General election may fill the gap in the psephology and context of a developing country. Findings may apply to other developing countries with similar contexts.
Topic:
Politics, Democracy, Citizenship, Social Media, and Facebook
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

166. Early Days of Sino-Pakistan Relations

Author:
Muhammad Tariq and Adnan Saleem
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Pakistan and China got independence one after another. China of Chiang-Kai-Shek had very little interest in Indo-Pakistan Subcontinent. However, they were hostile to the division of Subcontinent on religious ground. When Pakistan got independence, it did not receive any felicitations from China; on the other hand Pakistan took no interest in Chinese revolution. Pakistan only got activated when India became the floor-runner in recognition of China. After Indian recognition, Pakistan also recognized China. The real test of relationship was, when India stopped supply of coal for Pakistani trains and Chinese helped Pakistan, Pakistan on the other hand refused to condemn China in 1950s Korean War. The start of the relationship was neither warm nor cold. Pakistan had assumed that China was a neighbor and neighbor can not be changed. Moreover in case of Chinese assumption of Security Council seat, Pakistanis realized that Kashmir question would be discussed at UN, therefore, close and friendly relationship with China was necessary but Pakistan also needed economic and military assistance which could only come from Western block. However, maintaining normal relations with China was considered necessary. Therefore, Pakistan strongly supported Chinese‟ entry into UN Security Council and at Bandung Conference.
Topic:
NATO, Bilateral Relations, History, and Buddhism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Himalayas

167. China’s Policy towards South China Sea and its GeoPolitical Impact (2009-2020)

Author:
Khadeeja Ahmad, Sadia Rafique, and Khalid Manzoor Butt
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
China‟s policy of strategic ambiguity towards the territorial dispute in South China Sea has altered the geopolitical architecture. China‟s use of delaying tactics to appease ASEAN states and methods of distraction in its bilateral relations with competing states has improved the security in the region. However, the Chinese leadership is simultaneously conducting domineering activities in the disputed waters of South China. In this context, the study explores China‟s policies in the South China Sea. Additionally, there is a general understanding of the external motives and domestic sources being behind China‟s policy towards South China Sea, however, these factors are often analyzed and studied in isolation. This research article examines both the factors simultaneously and draws conclusions on the potential of armed conflict in the region, especially with respect to the claimant littoral states and the American pivot.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, ASEAN, and Strategic Ambiguity
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, South Asia, United States of America, and South China Sea

168. The Relationship between Democracy and Economic Growth of Pakistan: A Cointegration Analysis

Author:
Hafiz Muhammad Qasim
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Institutional quality is considered the major cause of income difference among the nations of the world. The primary objective of this research work is to analyze the nexus between institutional quality with a special emphasis on democracy in the economic growth of Pakistan. Economic growth is measured by Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), and democracy is quantified by democratic accountability (DA). Time series data on democratic accountability (DA), human capital (HC), infrastructure (INF), inflation (DEF), and RGDP from 1984 to 2018 have been utilized. Using the Johansen Cointegration approach, the results showed a long-run cointegration between the variables. Johansen Normalized results showed that democratic accountability, infrastructure, and human capital have a direct and statistically significant effect on Pakistan‟s economic growth. Similarly, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) exhibits that the computed value of ECT (-1) is statistically significant, negative, and less than 1, these results confirm the convergence of the variables towards its mean position. The VECM confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship between democratic accountability and the economic growth of Pakistan. Moreover, the results showed the short-run relationship between the variables. Granger causality showed a unidirectional causality is running from democratic accountability to economic growth. The results of diagnostic tests also revealed the absence of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity with the normality of residuals. Based on the econometric results, this study recommends that elected governments should establish such procedures and mechanisms that strengthen and support the democratic system and respond to people‟s problems to achieve sustainable economic growth in Pakistan.
Topic:
Democracy, Economic Growth, Accountability, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

169. Cyber Warfare as an Instrument of Hybrid Warfare: A Case Study of Pakistan

Author:
Tahir Mahmood Azad and Muhammad Waqas Haider
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
This research paper analyses the employment of cyber warfare as a tool of hybrid warfare by focusing on the case study of Pakistan. The changing domains of war in hybrid regimes complemented by the ambiguity of cyber warfare, becomes a real destructive instrument of power. Pakistan is a developing country and the cyber space of Pakistan has numerous vulnerabilities which are exploited by our adversaries time and again. Cyber space is closely linked with hybrid warfare and it is employed by both state and non-state actors as an effective instrument of hybrid warfare. The paper begins by the challenging task of defining and briefly analysing the terms such as cyberspace, cyber warfare and hybrid warfare. The research argues how cyber warfare is being linked with hybrid warfare in contemporary times. Subsequently, it attempts to analyse the existing cyberspace of Pakistan to identify its cyber vulnerabilities and how those vulnerabilities have been exploited to undermine the national security of Pakistan through cyber warfare in a hybrid domain. Additionally, the paper highlights the major findings to underpin the requirements of guarding cyber space and concludes by underpinning the need to protect the cyber space from exploitations by multiple actors.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Hybrid Warfare, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

170. Movement for the Restoration of Democracy (MRD): Reflection and Resistance against Dictatorial Regime in Punjab

Author:
Yawar Haroon and Mahboob Hussain
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The Movement for Restoration of Democracy (MRD) emerged when General Zia-ul-Haq could not fulfill the promise of conducting elections and prolonged his dictatorial regime instead of fulfilling his promise. He drew his power from a controlled system of government. In those circumstances, the democrats formed an alliance against the martial law administration. They neglected their internal differences and focused on their goal to achieve freedom of expression and liberty which was snubbed by the regime. MRD main demands were the restoration of democracy, under 1973 Constitution, conduction of election and handing over the system of administration to representatives of people. MRD continued struggled till the end of dictatorial regime in 1988.
Topic:
History, Democracy, Dictatorship, and Zia-ul-Haq
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Punjab