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62. Nuclear Deterrence: The Wohlstetter-Blackett Debate Re-visited
- Author:
- Rajesh Basrur
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Cold War debate between Albert Wohlstetter and Patrick Blackett over the requirements of effective deterrence is of profound relevance half a century later. The two thinkers offered systematic arguments for their maximalist (Wohlstetter) and minimalist (Blackett) positions. How we conceive of these requirements shapes the kinds of nuclear weapons doctrines, forces and postures we adopt. Whereas the Wohlstetter-Blackett debate was based largely on deductive logic, the opposing arguments can today be assessed on the basis of evidence drawing from nearly seven decades of strategic behaviour between nuclear rivals. An analysis of major confrontations in five nuclear dyads – United States-Soviet Union, United States-China, Soviet Union-China, India-Pakistan, and United States-North Korea – clearly offers much stronger support for Blackett?s minimalist case than for Wohlstetter?s maximalist one. Effective deterrence does not require second-strike capability as defined by Wohlstetter and the nuclear balance has no effect on a state?s capacity to deter. Consequently, the central tenets of orthodox nuclear deterrence theory and doctrine are shown to be without foundation. For policymakers, the optimal forces and postures required for effective deterrence are therefore less demanding and the hurdles in the path of arms control and at least partial disarmament less difficult to cross.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, China, India, and North Korea
63. North Korea Heading for the Abyss
- Author:
- Bruce Klingner
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- For some Asian experts, Kim Jong-un's December 2013 purge of his uncle and éminence grise, Jang Song-taek, changed everything. Hopes that the young, Western-educated North Korean leader would initiate long-predicted reform were dashed, replaced by rising fears of instability in the nuclear-armed nation. For other analysts, the purge merely affirmed everything that had seemed so obvious since the coronation of Kim petit-fils, namely that he would maintain the policies of his predecessors, though in a more erratic and riskier manner. Regardless of who was right, what are the policy implications going forward?
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
64. The Key to the North Korean Targeted Sanctions Puzzle
- Author:
- John S. Park
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Washington Quarterly
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- At no point in the history of U.S. nonproliferation and counterproliferation policy have financial sanctions been so central to U.S. efforts to prevent or rollback the acquisition of nuclear weapons in countries such as North Korea and Iran. Despite this crucial role, financial sanctions have been examined almost solely from the sender's perspective, that is, the country imposing the sanctions. Few focused policy analyses have measured the effects of these instruments from the target's perspective.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and North Korea
65. Countering Sanctions: The Unequal Geographic Impact of Economic Sanctions in North Korea
- Author:
- Yong Suk Lee
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- This paper examines how an autocratic regime domestically counters the impact of economic sanctions. A stylized model predicts that, as long as non-compliance is not too costly, the autocrat redistributes resources to the more valuable urban area when sanctions increase. Empirically, I examine the case of North Korea. I use the satellite night lights data to create average luminosity for each one minute by one minute cell between 1992 and 2010. I construct a sanctions index that varies based on the international response to North Korea's nuclear pursuit. I find that sanctions increase the urban-rural luminosity gap by 1.07%. Consistent with urban elite capture, Pyongyang, the center of power is best shielded from sanctions followed by province capitals. The hinterlands respond: luminosity near the Chinese border increases with sanctions. Sanctions that fail to change the leader's behavior increase inequality at a cost to the already marginalized hinterlands.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, International Security, Sanctions, and Authoritarianism
- Political Geography:
- South Korea and North Korea
66. Countering Nuclear Commodity Smuggling: A System of Systems
- Author:
- Leonard Spector
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- A comprehensive Center for Nonproliferation Studies report calls on the United States and other concerned countries to adopt tighter controls to stem the flow of nuclear-related goods to Iran, North Korea, and other states of proliferation concern. Even modest improvements across the spectrum of today’s nuclear technology controls could greatly strengthen overall international efforts to constrain illicit nuclear procurement networks, the study found. The now available report, Countering Nuclear Commodity Smuggling: A System of Systems, was prepared by Leonard S. Spector and Egle Murauskaite. The study was supported by the US Department of Defense.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Nuclear Power, Nonproliferation, and Illegal Trade
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Asia, and North Korea
67. Fire on the City Gate: Why China Keeps North Korea Close
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- China tolerates the nuclear ambitions of North Korea (the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, DPRK) for now because its interests in the neighbourhood are much wider and more complex than this single issue. Beijing and the West often work toward their shared goal of a nuclear-free Korean peninsula with contradictory approaches that reflect their different priorities. The West uses diplomatic isolation, economic sanctions and extended deterrence to pressure Pyongyang to give up its nuclear program. Many Western policymakers believe the DPRK will denuclearise if sufficient costs are imposed and that Beijing holds the keys because the North is economically dependent on it. But China is reluctant to take any coercive action that might destabilise the regime and change a delicate geopolitical balance. It instead continues with diplomatic engagement and economic cooperation as the instruments it hopes will cause the leadership to denuclearise in the indeterminate future.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and North Korea
68. South Korea: Responding to the North Korean threat
- Author:
- Bruce E. Bechtol
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- South Korea is in a unique position. It is an economic powerhouse and a thriving democracy that faces the most ominous and imminent threat on its borders of any democracy in the world. Moreover, this is a threat that continues to evolve, with increasing missile, cyber, special operations, and nuclear capabilities and a new leader who shows no signs that he will be any less ruthless or belligerent than his father. To meet this threat, Seoul has undertaken a number of efforts to better deter and defend against North Korean capabilities and provocations, including increasing the defense budget, upping training with US forces, creating new command elements, and establishing plans for preemptive strikes against imminent North Korean missile launches. However, in part because of administration changes in Seoul, the South Korean effort has been uneven. And decisions remain to be made in the areas of missile defense, tactical fighter aircraft, and command-and-control arrangements that will be significant for not only South Korea but all states that have an interest in Northeast Asia's peace and stability.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Development, Emerging Markets, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, and Territorial Disputes
- Political Geography:
- United States, East Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
69. Searching for Peace with North Korea
- Author:
- Bill Richardson and Donald P. Gregg
- Publication Date:
- 07-2013
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- New York, July 11, 2013 — Former Governor of New Mexico Bill Richardson and Ambassador Donald P. Gregg, former U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of Korea, analyze the present North Korea threat and discuss how it might be resolved. ABC News International Editor Jon Williams moderates the discussion. (1 hr., 18 min.)
- Topic:
- Communism and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- East Asia, North Korea, and Mexico
70. A more in-depth, technical Q from Siegfried Hecker on North Korea
- Author:
- Siegfried S. Hecker
- Publication Date:
- 04-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation
- Abstract:
- North Korea announced on April 2, 2013, that it would restart its nuclear facilities, including its 5 megawatt-electric (MWe) nuclear reactor in Yongbyon, north of the capital, which had been disabled and mothballed since an agreement in October 2007.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, and North Korea