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51. Is the Six Party Joint Statement a Viable Roadmap or a Road to Nowhere?

Author:
Larry A. Niksch
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
As of this writing in July 2006, North Korea is into the eight month of its second boycott of the Six Party nuclear talks. The first boycott lasted a year, from August 2004 to July 2005. In short, in the last 24 months of nuclear negotiations, North Korea has boycotted the negotiations for 19 of the 24 months. North Korea's missile tests in July 2006, added a new element to Pyongyang refusal to agree to new Six Party meetings. All the other governments in the talks profess a continued commitment to the negotiations. A realistic question, however, is whether this collective commitment is based on genuine expectations of substantial progress, or is it about maintaining a process, however unproductive, out of fear of unknown consequences if the talks collapse. The question is legitimate, given that the fact that most of the last two years, the diplomacy of these governments have descended to trying to influence the lowest level of North Korean diplomatic behavior: whether or not North Korea will “show up” for a meeting.
Political Geography:
North Korea and Pyongyang

52. Political Economy Of De-Nuclearizing North Korea

Author:
Yoon-Shik Park
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
In July 2005, the 4th round of the Six-party talks on the North Korean nuclear weapons program finally resumed in Beijing, China, but no one can tell the outcome of the talks that are intended to verifiably dismantle the nuclear weapons program of North Korea. It is difficult at this stage for outsiders to know why the North Korean regime reversed its previous insistence that it had chosen to become a nuclear power and would no longer bargain over it. However, it is clear that any breakthrough at the talks will be critically connected to both massive economic aid and security guarantees from the West. Without outside assistance, North Korea has no hope of achieving economic development and overcoming widespread economic hardship. Furthermore, North Korean de-nuclearization is important to the South Korean economy as well. Many foreign investors are understandably reluctant to commit their funds in South Korea as long as there is the specter of a North Korean nuclear threat. In late July 2005, for example, Fitch rating service pointed out the North Korean security issue as the most important reason not to upgrade South Korea's credit rating. Around the same time, Standard Poor's decided to upgrade South Korean credit rating by a notch due to the resumption of the long-stalemated Six-party talks.
Political Geography:
China, Beijing, and North Korea

53. The Roh Moo Hyun Government's Policy toward North Korea

Author:
Choong Nam Kim
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
Despite the emergence of a second North Korea nuclear crisis, President Roh Moo Hyun has expanded the sunshine policy that he inherited. As a result, the Roh government has experienced difficulties in managing both its North Korea policy and the U.S.-ROK alliance. The engagement policy is based on the assumption that inter-Korean cooperation will reduce tension on the Korean peninsula and induce change in the North. The policy appears to be reasonable for the long term, but not for the short term, especially for the resolution of immediate and complex issues such as the North Korea nuclear problem.
Political Geography:
United States and North Korea

54. The Gaeseong Industrial Park and the Future of Inter-Korean Relations

Author:
Youn-Suk Kim
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
Battered by a nearly bankrupted economy and continuous food shortages, North Korea has been cautiously opening its doors to strike economic deals with South Korea in recent years. The closed nature of the North's economy has resulted in low industrial productivity and efficiency, technological backwardness, and, in the end, economic stagnation. The North is also concerned that with the disparity in economic levels, unification with the South might result in the virtual absorption of the North into the South. Thus, the South's policy in this regard has been to reassure the North that unity through absorption is neither feasible nor desirable under the current state of military confrontation.
Political Geography:
South Korea and North Korea

55. The North Korean Economy at a Crossroads: Problems and Prospects

Author:
Dick K. Nanto
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
North Korea stands at a crossroads now that is every bit as momentous as its decision to invade South Korea in 1950. What Kim Jong-il does over the short- and medium-term will put his country either on a path leading to reconciliation with the world and economic and military security or a path leading to a nuclear standoff or military hostilities. As this drama plays out on the world stage, the economy of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea plays a critical role. Economic forces play a twopronged role. Starvation and dismal economic conditions exert pressures on Pyongyang from inside the country, while the prospect of economic assistance and normalized trade and investment relations with other nations provide a powerful incentive for the North Korean leaders to undertake actions that otherwise would be difficult. North Korean is in transition. It can turn back state socialism, state control, and starvation, or it can take the road of China and the states of the Former Soviet Union and join the rest of the world.
Political Geography:
South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

56. Russia's Interests and Objectives on the Korean Peninsula

Author:
Peggy Falkenheim Meyer
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
The North Korean nuclear crisis that began in October 2002 has presented a challenge for Russia. The crisis began when a North Korean official allegedly acknowledged that his country had been pursuing a secret uranium enrichment program. Since then, Pyongyang has withdrawn from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, expelled International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors, and restarted plutonium reactors whose operations were frozen under a 1994 agreement with the United States. North Korea has claimed that it has processed spent nuclear fuel rods and that it possesses nuclear weapons.
Political Geography:
Russia, North Korea, and Korea

57. U.S.-North Korean Relations: From the Agreed Framework to the Six-party Talks

Author:
Larry Niksch
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
U.S.-North Korean relations since the end of the Cold War have been dominated by the issue of North Korea's nuclear program, specifically by evidence and a U.S. assessment that North Korea has used its nuclear program to attempt to produce nuclear weapons. From the time of a major policy speech in Seoul by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz in early 1991 to the present, successive U.S. administrations have had a priority policy objective of eliminating the nuclear program. The objective expanded after 1998 to include North Korean missiles and chemical and biological weapons. The United States has attempted three different diplomatic initiatives with this aim: the negotiations that led to the signing of the U.S.-North Korean Agreed Framework in October 1994; the Perry initiative of 1999-2000; and the six-party talks of 2003-2004. The United States, with South Korea, also initiated four-party talks with North Korea, including China, over a Korean peace treaty in the 1997-1999 period.
Political Geography:
United States, South Korea, North Korea, and Seoul

58. Dealing with Pyongyang In Search of a More Effective Strategy

Author:
C. Kenneth Quinones
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
Double failure does not yield success. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and US President George Bush claim they want a “peaceful diplomatic solution” to the Korean Peninsula's nuclear woes, but their strategies have failed to achieve their avowed goals. More effective strategies are urgently needed. But first we need to figure out what is really impeding progress on both sides.
Political Geography:
United States, North Korea, and Korea

59. ROK's Nuclear Experiments: A Successful Case of Alliance Management

Author:
Steven Kim
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
The startling disclosure by the South Korean (Republic of Korea: ROK) government on September 2, 2004, that a small group of its scientists had conducted secret nuclear experiments in 1982 and 2000 raised immediate concerns about possible implications for the six party talks to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis, including relations among three principals in the talks—South Korea, North Korea (Democratic People's Republic of Korea: DPRK), and the United States. The first concern was that the revelations might put a strain on ROK and US relations, stemming from their differing views over the disposition of the ROK's nuclear issue by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nation's nuclear watchdog; and second was that the DPRK might take advantage of the incident to pursue its own self-interested agenda. Of the two, the possible negative impact on ROK-US relations was the bigger concern among many observers. With ROK-US relations showing strain over the proper negotiating strategy toward the DPRK, it was feared that further differences between the ROK and the US over the South Korean nuclear issue might aggravate their relationship, and, thus, impede the progress of the six-party talks.
Political Geography:
United States, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

60. Changing Inter-Korean Relations and the Impact on the U.S.-ROK Alliance

Author:
Choong Nam Kim
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
With the end of the Cold War, since the 1990s Inter-Korean relations, a lasting reminder of that Cold War, have undergone drastic changes, especially during and after the Kim Dae Jung administration. Peace and stability in Northeast Asia depend on what happens on the Korean peninsula. How Seoul's North Korea policy evolves is of great interest to its allies and will likely impact South Korea's stature in the regional strategic order. In particular, the U.S.-ROK relationship can improve or deteriorate based on the diplomatic direction that South Korea takes with North Korea.
Political Geography:
United States, South Korea, North Korea, Korea, and Northeast Asia