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41. The DPRK's Decrepit Economy, Pyongyang's Achilles Heel

Author:
Dick K. Nanto
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
For a country ever on the brink of mass starvation, the DPRK in 2008 appears to have inched yet closer to an economic abyss that may generate famine and starvation not seen since the mid-1990s. This comes at a time when the Six Party Talks have reached what could be a turning point. In the talks, North Korea's decrepit economy serves as a primary source of leverage that parties in the talks are wielding to move decision making forward. “Great Leader” Kim Jong-il, who ever portrays himself as invincible, may find that the economy is his Achilles heel.
Political Geography:
North Korea and Pyongyang

42. Re-Aligning the Military and Political Dimensions of the ROK-US Alliance: The Possibilities

Author:
Patrick M. Morgan
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
In a nutshell, the ROK-US alliance faces the following problem: for some time the military and political dimensions of the alliance have been out of alignment on adjusting to the international and national security issues that concern the alliance. In many ways the alliance should be doing well. After all, over time North Korea has become steadily weaker as an international actor, while those who explicitly oppose many elements of its foreign and domestic policies have grown in number, including all its immediate neighbors. The promising opening to the outside world that the North undertook after signing the Agreed Framework has been sharply devalued and it is back to being quite isolated. The economic recovery the North had begun earlier in this decade seems to have slowed. It is difficult to see how the North has benefited in any serious way from its missile tests or its test of a nuclear device. The alliance's goal of containing and deterring North Korea is well in hand – the DPRK has made no great breakout politically from containment and is militarily even weaker relative to the alliance than before, despite its missile and nuclear weapons programs. In addition, the alliance partners have been doing reasonably well in the East Asian system: flourishing economically, modernizing militarily. Despite all this the alliance has been under great strain in this decade, with much recrimination between the allies, so numerous analysts have suggested that it is not at all healthy. In this case, at least, success has been breeding decay.
Political Geography:
East Asia and North Korea

43. Disabling "Nuclear" North Korea for Regional Balance and Security

Author:
Young Whan Kihl
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
The reality of a rising “nuclear” North Korea, with its testfiring of seven missiles on July 5, 2006, and underground testing of a nuclear device on October 9, was met by world-wide condemnation and emergency sessions of the United Nations Security Council. The world had not yet gotten accustomed to the two UN Security Council resolutions (1695 and 1718), imposing limited economic sanctions on North Korea, when it was surprised once again by the breakthrough announcement of February 13, 2007: the Six-Party Talks Accord on “Disabling the North Korean nuclear program.”
Political Geography:
North Korea

44. The Terrorism List Issue in U.S. Policy Toward North Korea

Author:
Larry A. Niksch
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
The issue of North Korea's inclusion on the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism has been in U.S.-North Korean diplomacy since 2000, but three stages are of particular importance: the first in 2000 in Clinton Administration-North Korean negotiations; the second during the 2003-2004 Six Party negotiations over the North Korean nuclear issue; and the third in the diplomacy around the Six Party nuclear agreement of February 2007. Until 2000, the core element of U.S.-North Korean diplomacy was the Agreed Framework, which Washington and Pyongyang signed in October 1994. It dealt primarily with North Korea's nuclear program, but U.S. obligations specified in the Agreed Framework included economic and diplomatic measures. However, the issue of removal of North Korea from the U.S. terrorism list was omitted from the Agreement. The issue appears not to have been a major object of the negotiations in 1994.
Political Geography:
United States and North Korea

45. China's Foreign Policy toward North Korea—A US Perspective

Author:
Robert Sutter
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the demise of East-West and Sino-Soviet competition for influence in the Korean peninsula after the cold war, Beijing adjusted Chinese relations to take advantage of economic and other opportunities with South Korea, while sustaining a leading international position in relations with North Korea. In contrast with steady Chinese efforts to use post cold war conditions in order to advance China's relations with South Korea, Chinese foreign policy toward North Korea has been characterized by reactive moves in response to abrupt and often provocative behavior of North Korea, and, to a lesser degree, the United States.
Political Geography:
United States, China, Beijing, North Korea, and Soviet Union

46. A Nuclear North Korea and Prospects for the Korean Economy: An International Business Perspective

Author:
Yoon-Shik Park
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
In October 2006, North Korea (officially the Democratic People's Republic of Korea or DPRK in short) tested a nuclear bomb based on plutonium, thus proclaiming it to be a full member of the select nuclear bomb club. Whether the test was a resounding success or not is still not fully resolved, and the status of North Korea's uranium enrichment program is yet to be admitted by the DPRK government. Faced with strong international condemnation and a movement towards punitive sanctions coordinated by the United Nations, DPRK reached an agreement at the six party talks on February 13, 2007, under which DPRK eventually agreed to abandon its nuclear programs in return for aid. The accord implements a deal reached in September 2005, but the talks had stalled until early 2007. Paradoxically, a nuclear North Korea may lead to successful denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and robust economic developments there. As the DPRK regime feels confident enough in security terms now that it is recognized as a nuclear club member, it can enter into a “big deal” with its main opposing powers, the United States, Japan and South Korea, for swapping its nuclear weapons program for an iron-clad security guarantee and massive economic assistance for the modernization of the DPRK economy.
Political Geography:
Japan, South Korea, and North Korea

47. Preview of the 17th Presidential Election in Korea: Candidates, Issues and Cleavages

Author:
Kap Yun Lee
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
At present, all signs seem to point in the direction of a conservative victory in the 17th presidential elections that will be held on December 19, 2007.1 President Roh Moo-hyun's job approval rating has been lower than 30%, and often below 20%, for more than two years, and his UP (Uri Party) is supported by barely 10% of the public. The opposition GNP (Grand National Party) has become by far the most popular party, enjoying more than 40% of the popular support. The economy has been in doldrums since 2002, slowing down to an annual growth of 4%, after an average annual growth of 7% in the preceding decade. Business and consumer confidence in the market is declining, gaps between the rich and the poor are ever more increasing, and unemployment among young people is steadily on the rise. North Korea's Kim Jong-il did not help Roh either. Despite the sincere and continuous provision of economic aid to the North by the Roh government, North Korea responded only by demanding more unconditional aid without taking any reciprocal measures to contribute to the peace and prosperity of the peninsula. The nationalistic public mood soured, in particular after a nuclear test by the North in 2006, and the people no longer wholeheartedly support Roh's conciliatory policy.
Political Geography:
North Korea and Korea

48. The U.S.-ROK Alliance: American Perspectives

Author:
David I. Steinberg
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
Non-specialist Americans, if they think of the Korean Peninsula at all, focus on the crisis that the U.S. faces with North Korea over nuclear and missile issues. Yet there are two crises facing the U.S. in that volatile and dangerous location that has been for two millennia a nexus of regional conflict. The first is the more obvious one with North Korea that the Bush administration has yet seriously to address on a bilateral basis, and still seems unwilling to do so at the highest levels; and the second crisis, a stealth one between South Korea and the U.S.– one that is obscured by both a lack of transparency on relations on the part of both governments and by the media in the United States that has under-reported the issue. The prospect of the Bush-Roh summit did raise its visibility, but the meeting itself and its aftermath were poorly reported in the United States and the subsequent limited official statements lacked depth and implied substantial disagreements. The second crisis with South Korea is arguably as profound as the first for longer-range relations and stability in Northeast Asia. Although both are related, they are not coterminous.
Political Geography:
United States, America, and North Korea

49. U.S.-DPRK Relations in the 21st Century: Ramifications of North Korea's Declaration of Independence from the International Community

Author:
C. Kenneth Quinones
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
North Korea's July 4 launching of ballistic missiles declared its leader Kim Jong Il's determination to secure its nation's national defense irrespective of the international community's concerns and opposition. Initial international reaction ranged from stunned disbelief to rage. Japan was particularly outraged and took the initiative, with strong support from the United States, to press for UN Security Council passage of a resolution that called for economic sanctions against North Korea. Even China took the rare step of supporting a moderated version of the UN Security Council resolution that censured North Korea, but without reference to sanctions. Absent from most reactions was perspective. RRather than attempting to decipher the consequences, governments focused on punitive measures. How could North Korea and its leader Kim Jong Il be so audacious and foolheardty as to disregard the international community's warnings against launching a single ballistic missile. Here we pursue perspective to better understand Kim Jong Il's motives so that we might better know how to influence his future actions. Whether Kim acted in an appropriate or moral manner is not our concern. In matters of national security, morality, issues of right and wrong, are of secondary concern. Foremost must be the goal to better understand our adversaries so that we can deal most effectively with them. Otherwise, our security will be at greater risk in the future.
Political Geography:
United States and North Korea

50. South-North Korean Relations Under The Roh Moo-Hyun Government

Author:
Hong Nack Kim
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
In his inaugural address in February 2003, President Roh Moo- Hyun declared his intention not only to retain his predecessor's North Korea policy (the “sunshine policy”) but also to expand the scope and the content of the “sunshine policy” in order to build a “structure of peace” on the Korean Peninsula. Dubbed as the Policy for Peace and Prosperity,” it envisions three stages of development. In the first stage, South Korea seeks to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue and facilitate peace on the Korean Peninsula. In the second stage, Seoul seeks to develop further inter- Korean economic cooperation and lay the foundation for a peace regime. In the third and final stage, the policy is to launch a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula. In implementing the North Korea policy, Roh has pledged to adhere to four basic principles: (1) all issues should be resolved through dialogue; (2) priorities should be placed on building mutual trust and “upholding reciprocity”; (3) the inter-Korean issues should be resolved by South and North Korea in cooperation with the international community; and, (4) Seoul will strive to ensure transparency, expand citizen participation, and secure “bipartisan support” in implementing North Korea policy.
Political Geography:
South Korea and North Korea