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1552. Breaks in the Variability and Co-Movement of G-7 Economic Growth
- Author:
- Jon Faust and Brian M. Doyle
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates breaks in the variability and co-movement of output, consumption, and investment in the G-7 economies. In contrast with most other papers on co-movement, we test for changes in co-movement allowing for breaks in mean and variance. Despite claims that rising integration among these economies has increased output correlations among them, we find no clear evidence of an increase in correlation of growth rates of output, consumption, or investment. This finding is true even for the United States and Canada, which have seen a tremendous increase in bilateral trade shares, and for the members of the euro area in the G-7.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, and North America
1553. Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve in Canada
- Author:
- Joseph W. Gruber
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This study examines the impact of productivity growth on the relationship between inflation and unemployment in Canada. Recently it has been suggested that higher productivity growth is responsible for a shift in the U.S. Phillips curve that occurred in the late 1990s. This paper examines whether the Phillips curve in Canada shifted in a manner similar to that of the United States, and the degree to which higher productivity growth explains this shift.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Canada and North America
1554. Revisiting the Border: An Assessment of the Law of One Price Using Very Disaggregated Consumer Price Data
- Author:
- John H. Rogers, Shing-Yi B. Wang, and Charles M. Engels
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We reexamine the evidence for border effects in deviations from the law of one price, using data for consumer prices from Canadian and U.S. cities. The study parallels Engel and Rogers (1996), except that this study uses actual price data rather than price index data. We find evidence of border effects both in the levels of prices and the percentage change in prices. Even accounting for distance between cities and relative population sizes, we find that the absolute difference between prices in the U.S. and Canada in our data (annual from 1990 to 2002) is greater than seven percent. This difference exists among tradables and nontradables, though for some categories of tradables (clothing and durables) the difference is smaller. The findings are similar for annual changes, though the magnitude is smaller: the border accounts for a difference in 1.5 percent in annual (log) price changes. Relative population sizes and distance are helpful in explaining price level differences (between Canadian and U.S. cities) for traded goods, but are less helpful in explaining price level differences for nontraded goods or for accounting for differences in price changes for either traded or nontraded goods.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Canada and North America
1555. How do Canadian Hours Worked Respond to a Technology Shock?
- Author:
- Robert J. Vigfusson, Lawrence J. Christiano, and Martin Eichenbaum
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates the response of hours worked to a permanent technology shock. Based on annual data from Canada, we argue that hours worked rise after a positive technology shock. We obtain a similar result using annual data from the United States. These results contradict a large literature that claims that a positive technology shock causes hours worked to fall. We find that the different results are due to the literature making a specification error in the statistical model of per capital hours worked. Finally, we present results that Canadian monetary policy has accommodated technology shocks.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Canada and North America
1556. What the Cancun Meeting Can Achieve
- Author:
- Claude E. Barfield
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- As the WTO Ministerial Meeting opens in Cancún, Mexico, conflict surrounds the agenda. U.S. negotiators must find a balance between compromise and assertiveness to overcome soured U.S.-EU relations and should push for a sharp reduction in agricultural trade barriers, increased liberalization in the service sectors, and reductions in the remaining tariffs on industrial products.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Central America, North America, and Mexico
1557. Innovation and Social Capital in Silicon Valley
- Author:
- Martin Kenney and Donald Patton
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- The high cost regions of Europe, North America, and Japan recognize that the key to their economic vitality is innovation. Increasingly, many also accept that the primary units of competition based on high quality, innovative products are not nations, but firms within regions, some of which occasionally bridge national boundaries. This has resulted in a significant increase in interest in the nature and functioning of such regional economies, variously known as clusters or industrial districts.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Israel, East Asia, and North America
1558. Democratic Politics in Latin America: New Debates and Research Frontiers
- Author:
- Gerardo Munck
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
- Abstract:
- This assessment of research on contemporary democratic politics in Latin America is organized around the distinction between institutional and alternative approaches. Initially it considers institutionalism on its own terms and, through an assessment of the debate about the institutional causes of gridlock, draws attention to key strengths of this literature. Thereafter, some of the limitations of an institutional approach are addressed and the possibility of combining insights developed from institutional and alternative theoretical perspectives is emphasized. The suggested terms of integration, however, are not symmetric. With regard to causal theorizing, the need for institutionalists to borrow ideas, especially from the broader literature on political regimes, is underlined. With regard to theorizing outcomes, in contrast, the need for students of the quality of democracy to incorporate contributions made by institutionalists is highlighted. Throughout, various pointed suggestions to advance research are offered.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Government
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and North America
1559. Picking Up the Pieces: Comparing the Social Impact of Finacial Crisis in Mexico and Argentina
- Author:
- Manuel Pastor and Carol Wise
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
- Abstract:
- After a committed process of macroeconomic stabilization that began during the mid-1980s in most of Latin America, many observers began to speak of the need for a “second generation” of reforms that could more firmly establish the bases for economic growth and correct for longstanding distributional inequities. By the mid-1990s serious reformers like Argentina and Mexico seemed to be on the cusp of tackling this distributional backlog by launching so-called second phase market reforms meant to correct for earlier shortcomings in the social realm (Naím 1995; Pastor and Wise 1999). However, in both cases, financial crises erupted: Mexico's crash of December 1994, which saw a forty percent devaluation of the peso and a massive outflow of portfolio capital; and, more recently, Argentina's 2002 meltdown, which while simmering since the Brazilian devaluation of 1999, finally caused the country's commitment to a fixed exchange rate to be abandoned.
- Topic:
- Economics and Government
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Argentina, South America, Latin America, North America, and Mexico
1560. The Bombardier-Embraer Dispute and its Implications for Western Hemisphere Integration
- Author:
- Jonathan P. Doh
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Government subsidies are a pervasive problem for international trade and economic development. Subsidies distort investment decisions, generally squander scarce public resources, skew public expenditures toward unproductive uses, unfairly discriminate against efficient industries and firms, and prompt wasteful overconsumption of some products over others. Despite efforts to limit subsidies through trade and investment policy disciplines, subsidization remains a constant on the global trade policy and international business landscape.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America