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1351. The United States and the Global Future

Author:
Banning Garrett, James B. Steinberg, David Ignatius, and Uri Dadush
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
How will the US economy evolve over the next twenty years and what might be the impact of various US economic scenarios on the global system? Will the United States have a Japan-like decade or two of anemic growth? If so, would this lead the United States to reduce its foreign involvement and commitments, become more protectionist, and focus on its internal problems? Or will the United States solve its fiscal and debt problems, reinvigorate growth and innovation, and return to sustainable economic growth? Would this underpin a renewed commitment to active US global leadership in mobilizing international cooperation to manage security, economic growth, and global challenges?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
United States and North America

1352. The Transatlantic Bargain After "the Pivot"

Author:
Barry Pavel and Jeffrey Lightfoot
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The "tough love" farewell speech of former US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates last June was more than a major policy speech on the state of NATO. His remarks were also highly symbolic, coming from a legendary Cold Warrior whose forty-year career had been oriented around the transatlantic relationship. Secretary Gates used his final appearance at the bully pulpit not only to warn Europeans that declining defense budgets risked undermining the credibility of the Alliance among US policymakers, but also that a new wave of American decision-makers would not necessarily share his generation's knowledge of, concern for, or sentimental attachment to the transatlantic alliance.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and International Security
Political Geography:
United States, America, Europe, Middle East, and North America

1353. The US Cyber Policy Reboot

Author:
Jason Healey
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Over the course of 2011, the United States government released a coordinated set of policies that represents the most energetic cyber statecraft in nearly a decade.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and North America

1354. It's Time to Put the Nuclear Issue Behind Us: The Chicago Summit Has More Urgent Priorities than Nuclear Theology

Author:
Kori Schake, Lord Robertson, and Franklin C. Miller
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Slightly over two years ago, NATO was embroiled in an internal controversy of its own creation which bore within it the seeds of a deep crisis within the Alliance. Several governments, impelled by a heady mix of domestic politics and a newly fashionable interest in nuclear disarmament among certain elites, actively sought the removal of US nuclear weapons from the European portion of the Alliance. In doing so, they raised serious questions about their adherence to the central core of the Alliance: the Article 5 guarantee.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and North America

1355. A New Framework for US-China Economic Relations

Author:
Henry M. Paulson
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
For nearly four decades, there has been a broad consensus among US policy and opinion leaders that China's success will, ultimately, be good for the United States. But this long-standing consensus is now fraying. We need a new consensus, based on an updated framework that reflects the reality that China is no longer a "developing" economy but an increasingly established one.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Asia and North America

1356. Explaining the Pentagon’s Defense Strategy

Author:
Julie Zelnick and Mieke Eoyang
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to translate the long and technical national security strategic directive the Obama Administration laid out on January 5, 2012 into plain language and provide policymakers with guidance on how to make the case for the President’s plan. The directive has four over-arching goals, which are reflected in the budget
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Imperialism, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
United States, North America, and Global Focus

1357. La relation Pakistan – Etats-Unis : un patron et son client au bord de la rupture ? (The Pakistan-US relations : A relationship on the brink ?)

Author:
Christophe Jaffrelot
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
During the Cold War the US-Pakistan relationship was one in which the US considered Pakistan as a necessary part of its effort to contain communism in Asia while Pakistan considered its relationship with the US as strengthening its position vis a vis India. The high point in this relationship was during the Soviet-Afghan war. The US tried to renew this relationship after 9/11, although when Obama replaced GW Bush he stated his intention to move US-Pakistani relations off the security agenda which the Pentagone and the Pakistani army considered a priority. However, Obama rain into resistance from the Pakistani army and from the national security establishment in Washington- as can be seen from the security-oriented distribution of US aid. But not even in the area of security have the two nations been able truly to collaborate. To begin with, the strengthening of US-India relations angered Pakistan. Then Islamabad protected the Taliban in its fight with NATO. Finally, Obama violated Pakistani sovereignty (the Drone strikes in the tribal belt and the Ben Laden raid). These conflicting interest, however, do not necessary means the end of the relationship.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, War, Peacekeeping, and State
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, North America, and United States of America

1358. Selling the Future in DC. Marketing Stability for International Security

Author:
Ariel Colonomos
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
What kind of future worlds do experts of international security envision? This paper studies the role of experts in DC's think tanks, a relatively small world socially and culturally highly homogeneous. It underlines the characteristics of this epistemic community that influence the way its analysts make claims about the future for security. The DC's marketplace of the future lacks diversity. The paradigms analysts use when they study international politics are very similar. Moreover, the range of issues they focus on is also relatively narrow. The paper highlights three main features of the relation between those who make claims about the future of security and those to whom these claims are addressed (mainly policymakers). First, it shows that, for epistemic but also for political reasons, the future imagined in think tanks is relatively stable and linear. This future also contributes to the continuity of political decisions. Second, the paper shows that think tanks are also "victims of groupthink", especially when they make claims about the future. Third, it underlines a paradox: scenarios and predictions create surprises. Claims about the future have a strong tunneling effect. They reinforce preexisting beliefs, create focal points, and operate as blinders when, inevitably, the future breaks away from its linear path.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Terrorism, War, International Security, and State
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, Washington, and D.C.

1359. Has Regionalism Peaked? The Latin American Quagmire and its Lessons

Author:
Andrés Malamud and Gian Gardini
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Since 1960, Latin American attempts at regionalism have undergone distinct phases. More notably, they have tended to diverge across space, gradually giving birth to separate blocs that seem to be tearing South, Central and North America apart. Additionally, within and across these regions several overlapping projects coexist. This article focuses on the dynamics of segmented and overlapping regionalism in order to describe what they look like, analyse how they articulate with one another, and explain why member states have pushed for such a messy outcome. This situation, linked to the evolution of the global context, might be indicating that regionalism in Latin America has reached its peak, beyond which it may be difficult to achieve further progress. Two conclusions are elicited: first, economic integration is becoming a geographically diffused phenomenon rather than a regional one; second, regionalism is still a compelling foreign policy but its causes, goals and outcomes are no longer what they used to be.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Economics
Political Geography:
Latin America and North America

1360. Re-thinking the Role of Indigenous Peoples in International Law: New Developments in International Environmental Law and Development Cooperation

Author:
Maria Victoria Cabrera Ormaza
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:
Indigenous Peoples have classically been defined in terms of their situation of vulnerability and discrimination traceable back to colonialism. The first international legal instruments addressing indigenous peoples are based on such an understanding, and emphasize special protection for indigenous peoples in order to preserve their cultural identity. This article describes this approach a human rights-based one, even though, at the national level, the label “indigenous” is sometimes also interpreted as a synonym of political power. Meanwhile, international environmental law has introduced what this author calls a “functional approach” recognizing the participatory role of indigenous communities in supporting environmental conservation and use of biodiversity. From a functional perspective, it is a logical consequence to include other local communities, albeit not “indigenous” in the classical sense. Thirdly, in the sector of development cooperation, international financial institutions (IFIs) have designed policies with the aim of assuring indigenous peoples the opportunity to be consulted when IFIfunded projects could entail a negative impact on indigenous communities. At first glance, it could be said that those policies were inspired by a human rights-based approach. However, from a holistic perspective, the role of indigenous peoples becomes a more functional one. This paper contributes a critical analysis of the role of indigenous peoples from these two approaches: the human rights-based approach and the functional approach. The author argues that a definition of indigenous peoples based on a humanrights approach should be understood as encompassing also other groups living in similarly vulnerable situations. Even though a functional approach to indigenous peoples responds better to the principle of equality, this approach should be more respectful to the cultural and social values of indigenous or local communities, from whom a particular behavior is expected in order to achieve certain goals.
Topic:
Human Rights and International Law
Political Geography:
North America