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Begin New Search Topic Public Policy Political Geography North America

21. Predicting United States Policy Outcomes with Random Forests

Author:
Shawn K. McGuire and Charles B. Delahunt
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Two decades of U.S. government legislative outcomes, as well as the policy preferences of highincome people, the general population, and diverse interest groups, were captured in a detailed dataset curated and analyzed by Gilens, Page et al. (2014). They found that the preferences of high-income earners correlated strongly with policy outcomes, while the preferences of the general population did not, except via a linkage with the preferences of high earners. Their analysis applied the tools of classical statistical inference, in particular logistic regression. In this paper we analyze the Gilens dataset using the complementary tools of Random Forest classifiers (RFs), from Machine Learning. We present two primary findings, concerning respectively prediction and inference: (i) Holdout test sets can be predicted with approximately 70% balanced accuracy by models that consult only the preferences of those in the 90th income percentile and a small number of powerful interest groups, as well as policy area labels. These results include retrodiction, where models trained on pre-1997 cases predicted “future” (post-1997) cases. The 20% gain in accuracy over baseline (chance), in this detailed but noisy dataset, indicates the high importance of a few distinct players in U.S. policy outcomes, and aligns with a body of research indicating that the U.S. government has significant plutocratic tendencies. (ii) The feature selection methods of RF models identify especially salient subsets of interest groups (economic players). These can be used to further investigate the dynamics of governmental policy making, and also offer an example of the potential value of RF feature selection methods for inference on datasets such as this one.
Topic:
Political Economy, Elections, Public Policy, Money, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

22. Effects of US Foreign Assistance on Democracy Building, 1990–2014: An Update

Author:
Steven E. Finkel, Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, Michael Neureiter, and Chris A. Belasco
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper updates our earlier work on the impact of US foreign assistance on democratic outcomes in recipient countries using newly available USAID Foreign Aid Explorer data covering the 2001–2014 period, as well as new outcome measures derived from Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) data. Building on the theoretical and empirical framework established in our previous study and in subsequent work in the field, we estimate: a) the effect of overall USAID Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance (DRG) expenditures on general indices of democracy, b) changes in the effects of DRG expenditures after 2001, and c) the conditions that moderate the impact of DRG funding at the country level in the contemporary era. We find that the effect of DRG expenditures decreased dramatically in the 2002–2014 period, relative to the modest effect shown in the previous study for the period immediately following the end of the Cold War. However, DRG aid remains effective in the current era under favorable conditions. Further analysis demonstrates important conditional effects related to patterns of DRG investment, such that aid has greater impact when levels of security assistance are low (indicating competing priorities) and when prior DRG investment is low (indicating diminishing returns). In addition, DRG is more effective at intermediate levels of democratization and less so in contexts of democratic backsliding.
Topic:
Security, Development, Globalization, Governance, Democracy, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

23. Immigration-Related Policy Changes in the First Two Years of the Trump Administration

Author:
Sarah Pierce
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
Since entering office in January 2017, the Trump administration has pressed one of the most assertive agendas on immigration in modern times. And though enforcement actions at the U.S.-Mexico border and in the interior of the country have drawn the most attention, a much more wide-ranging set of immigration-related policy changes has taken place over the past two years. This document chronicles these changes, large and small, broken down by major issue area. Among other things, it includes Justice Department policies that affect how the immigration courts operate, humanitarian programs and statuses, adjustments to how the State Department processes visa applications and admits foreign nationals to the United States, and enforcement changes. These policy changes have been accomplished unilaterally by the executive branch at a time when Congress has largely avoided taking on immigration-related legislation. They have come in the form of hundreds of policy memos, regulatory changes, and more. Some of these changes have been slowed or stopped by the courts, including attempts to prevent foreign nationals who cross the U.S. border illegally from receiving asylum, but most have gone into effect.
Topic:
Immigration, Border Control, Employment, Economy, Public Policy, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

24. Beyond evidence versus truthiness: toward a symmetrical approach to knowledge and ignorance in policy studies

Author:
Katharina Paul and Christian Haddad
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Current political developments in established liberal democracies in both Europe and North America have fundamentally called into question the normative relations between truth, knowledge and politics. Whether labeled “posttruth” or truthiness, commentators lament the willful spread and deployment of nonknowledge and ignorance as important political forces. In this paper, we discuss ignorance in its strategic dimension by weaving together insights from the sociology of ignorance with a policy-scientific approach. By means of three empirical vignettes, we demonstrate that ignorance is more than the flipside of knowledge or merely its lack: it is a constitutive feature of the policy process and is thus not uniquely symptomatic of the current era. We conclude by arguing for what we call a symmetrical approach in which ignorance receives the same quality of attention that knowledge has historically received in the policy sciences. To make fully visible the different forms of ignorance that shape policy processes, policy scholars must hone their “agnoto-epistemological sensibilities” to cope with the current challenges and advance a policy science for democracy.
Topic:
Post Truth Politics, Public Policy, Truth, and Misinformation
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

25. Reporting on the Spread of HIV in China

Author:
David Cowhig
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Chinese physician Dr. Wang Shuping predicted the HIV epidemic among Henan peasant blood sellers and eventually raised the alarm all the way to Beijing when local and provincial authorities ignored the rapid spread of HIV among the sellers. This heroic and far-sighted woman became my most important informant on the HIV epidemic when I worked in the Environment, Science and Technology Section of U.S. Embassy Beijing 1996 – 2001.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Health, Public Policy, and Memoir
Political Geography:
China, Beijing, North America, and United States of America

26. Ending Welfare As We Know It: A Reform Still in Progress

Author:
Demetrios James Caraley
Publication Date:
01-2002
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
DEMETRIOS JAMES CARALEY summarizes the political and social dynamics that brought about the repeal of Aid to Families of Dependent Children (AFDC) and analyzes the effects of the new Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program over its first four years. He considers possibilities for further changes in cash assistance for poor families during the program’s necessary reauthorization in 2002.
Topic:
Reform, Domestic Politics, Public Policy, Welfare, and Social Services
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America