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151. An Outlook for the Domestic and Foreign Policies of the New Administration of the US --Observations over the President-Elect Trump before Inauguration

Author:
Pangoal Institution
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pangoal Institution
Abstract:
On November 9, 2016, defeating Hilary Clinton, Donald Trump was elected as the 45th American president. At the same time, the Republican Party secured majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Since November 9, 2016, Trump and his team have been working day and night on issues including personnel, policies, public opinions, and foreign relations to prepare for the inauguration on January 20, 2017. During this time, Trump has touched upon the China issue more frequently and casually compared to his predecessors, and with distinct deal mentality. It has raised more uncertainties in China about the relationship with the US after Trump takes office. The prospect we have to be concerned about is that the No.1 threat confronting China-US relationship in the future is the dominance of offensive realism and antagonistic behavior. And zero-sum pattern is starting to encroach trade and economic ties which have long been the cornerstone of the bilateral relations. The following is an observation report on what the president-elect has done and said since he won the election. All of the content is based on public information and is hereby presented to you. We hope it can help readers gain clear thinking on where America and China-US relationship are going and also offer informative reading to people who care about the bilateral relations. The report is divided into six parts, aiming to present in a systematic and comprehensive way all the preparation made by Donald Trump and his team and forecast the Trump administration’s way of governance. Due to limited space, we have to focus only on issues closely related to the interests of China. We appreciate your understanding.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Donald Trump, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

152. The U.S. Presidential Election: The View from China

Author:
Zhang Fan
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
American presidential elections have an impact that goes far beyond U.S. national borders. People around the world follow the campaign for the U.S. presidency with great interest, and many feel that they have a stake in the outcome. People in China pay particularly close attention because China, almost more than any other nation, regularly becomes a key topic in U.S. presidential debates. During this particular campaign season, candidates of both major political parties have frequently mentioned China. However, what’s more noteworthy in this election cycle is that the Chinese populous is not focusing solely on how their homeland is bandied about by the candidates, but even more so on the entire American electoral process as a whole. Certainly, some Chinese are tuning in primarily for entertainment value; but many others are trying to figure out exactly what this election will mean not only for the United States but for the entire world—including China. Regardless of what motivates individual Chinese election-watchers, the 2016 U.S. presidential election is popular in China. Zhang Fan, a Visiting Fellow on a Ford Foundation Global Travel and Learning Fund Program exchange, has spent the past five months at the Center for American Progress, studying the U.S. presidential election and Chinese reactions to it. She recently shared her views during a question-and-answer session with Blaine Johnson, China and Asia Policy Research Associate at the Center.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Democracy, and Election Observation
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

153. The Incoming Trump Administration

Author:
Eric Lerhe
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Security and Development, Dalhousie University
Abstract:
The election of President Trump provoked considerable disarray. His pre-election warning that states not meeting NATO defence spending targets might be denied US protection has resulted in a member of the Bundestag’s Committee of Foreign Affairs arguing for a non-US nuclear deterrent. Lithuania’s Foreign Minister warned of a Russian provocation against the Baltic states timed to occur prior to the President-elect taking office. Trump's parallel calls for greater Korean and Japanese military contributions, including his readiness to accept their nuclear self-arming, had the Tokyobased Diplomat predicting region-wide mayhem ranging from the greater potential for climatebased conflict to the increased probability of China opening hostilities with Taiwan. That at least one election declaration – a commitment to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership – may have stemmed from an astonishing lack of understanding was also of concern: in debate with US Senator Paul Ryan, the President-elect seemed to be criticizing the TPP in part because he thought China was included. Closer to home, Trump’s threat to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement provoked calls within Canada to counter this by increasing its own defence spending to the 2% of GDP NATO target and scrapping supply management.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Elections, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Russia, China, North America, and United States of America

154. he World That Awaits President-Elect Trump

Author:
Michelle Nicholasen
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
During the 2016 primaries, Donald Trump claimed he had more foreign policy experience than any of the GOP contenders. In fact, he has traveled widely to meet with presidents, prime ministers, financiers, and developers over the past decade as part of his highly profitable business of licensing the Trump name to large real estate developments around the world. On the campaign trail, Trump’s provocative statements about foreign policy have become part of the public record. From pressuring NAFTA members to bombing ISIS, his pledges have caused a stir in the arena of foreign relations. Publicly, candidate Trump threatened to close borders to Mexicans, slap tariffs on Chinese goods, restrict Muslims in the United States, among other vows. Without a record of public service to draw on, it is difficult to know how these declarations might translate into a Trump foreign policy. To understand what lies ahead for the new president, the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs asked its Faculty Associates in international relations to comment on the challenges and opportunities that await in five regions of the world: Africa, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Latin America, Europe, and China.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Elections, ISIS, and NAFTA
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, China, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and North America

155. The Dispatch (Winter 2016)

Author:
David J. Bercuson, Frédérick Gagnon, Randolph Mank, Colin Robertson, Robert Huebert, Hugh Stephens, Gary Soroka, Hugh Segal, Daryl Copeland, David Perry, and Robert Muggah
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Global Exchange
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
The Dispatch (later called The Global Exchange) is the Canadian Global Affairs Institute’s quarterly magazine featuring topical articles written by our fellows and other contributing experts. Each issue contains approximately a dozen articles exploring political and strategic challenges in international affairs and Canadian foreign and defence policy. This Winter 2016 issue includes articles on the election of Donald Trump, energy policy, Canadian defense capability, and more.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Energy Policy, Elections, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, Europe, Canada, North America, Arctic, and United States of America

156. United States After the Presidential Election 2016: Continuation or Abandonment of Obama’s Foreign Policy

Author:
Krševan Antun Dujmović
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
With the Presidential Elections coming closer, the global attention is shifting more and more to the United States. During the terms of George W. Bush, especially during his second tenure, the image of the US as an untouchable superpower was somewhat mitigated. In 2001 the US witnessed the largest attack on its territory since Pearl Harbor and military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq took a heavy toll in human lives and material and �inancial expanses. Upon this, the campaign in Iraq had no legal foundation, and that caused a rift with the European allies, especially with two big continental powers Germany and France, and the consequences are still largely felt to date. The legitimacy and the credibility of the US as the global strong leader was further watered down with the �inancial crunch originating on Wall Street, spilling over to the rest of the world, especially the European Union (EU). At the moment when American image and credibility hit the ground, the White House saw a new president Barack Obama, the �irst African American to sit in the Oval Of�ice. In the internal policy, Obama’s two terms saw the American economy gaining an undisputed strength. Unemployment rate and de�icit were cut in half, exports and the dollar were on the hike, just like the GDP growth and the real estate market. Obama’s foreign policy showed to be much more diplomatic and arguably more ef�icient than that of the Bush administration.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Elections, and Europe Union
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, North America, Washington, and D.C.

157. Presidential Elections and Corruption Perceptions in Latin America

Author:
Joel W. Johnson
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper argues that perceptions of corruption in Latin America exhibit predictable fluctuations in the wake of presidential turn- over. Specifically, presidential elections that result in the partisan transfer of power are normally followed by a surge-and-decline pattern in per- ceived corruption control, with initial improvements that fade with time. The causes are multiple and stem from the removal of corrupt admin- istrations, public enthusiasm about administrative change, and the rela- tive lack of high-level corruption scandals in the early phases of new governments. A statistical analysis of two widely used corruption percep- tions indices demonstrates the pattern for eighteen Latin American de- mocracies from 1996 to 2010. Both indices exhibit a temporary surge (of about two years) after turnover elections, while no such change follows reelections of incumbent presidents or parties. The theory and results are relevant for understanding public opinion in Latin America and for the analysis of corruption perceptions indices.
Topic:
Corruption, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and North America

158. News Media Consumption and Political Behavior in Latin America

Author:
Ryan Salzman
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
News media are an important factor in any democratic society. Research focused on developed democracies has paved the way for anal- ysis in the context of less well-developed democracies. The project en- deavors to continue that investigation into whether and how news media consumption affects democratic behavior among individuals in a region comprised of developing democracies: Latin America. Employing rich survey data available from the 2008 Latin American Public Opinion Project, traditional analyses are used to test one of the most basic ques- tions for political communication researchers: Does news media con- sumption motivate or depress political participation? The results indicate that, on average, news media mobilize political participation, albeit to different degrees per medium and participation type. This seems to hap- pen because those media socialize Latin Americans to value political participation.
Topic:
Mass Media, Elections, Democracy, Media, and Participation
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and North America

159. Recalibration and Surprises: A Primer on the Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Election

Author:
Allen Keiswetter
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
This is a capstone paper for a series of MEI scholar articles titled “The Middle East and the 2016 Presidential Elections." Will the 2016 vote for president be a foreign policy election? How will the Middle East figure in the campaign as it gains momentum? The accepted wisdom is that domestic issues, especially economic matters, will be decisive in voters’ minds. A year away from the election, it is unclear whether foreign policy issues will figure in a major way but the portent is there. The turbulent Middle East could easily burst into election politics as it has several times in the past.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, and United States of America

160. How Money Drives US Congressional Elections: More Evidence

Author:
Thomas Ferguson, Paul Jorgenson, and Jie Chen
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The protesters who swirled into parks, churches, and town squares around the world in the fall of 2011 to challenge the primacy of the “1%” hammered relentlessly on one theme above all others: that economic inequality has deep roots in the political system. Many social scientists and intellectuals who have picked up from where the Occupy movement left off share this conviction; they, too, have broken with the taboos that for so long segmented discussions of politics from economics. Piketty, in his monumental study, for example, avows that income distribution is a basically a question of “political economy” not pure economics. Stiglitz in The Price of Inequality is equally forthright – “increasingly, and especially in the United States, it seems that the political system is more akin to ‘one dollar one vote’ than to ‘one person one vote.’”
Topic:
Government, Politics, Science and Technology, History, Elections, Inequality, and Money
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America