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111. Trade Policy on the 2020 Trail: The Second Debate

Author:
William Alan Reinsch, Jack Caporal, Jonathan Robison, Beverly Lobo, and Catherine Tassin de Montaigu
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
As the race to be the Democratic nominee for president heats up, the second round of debates between the 20 candidates offered the American public a glimpse of the different candidate’s trade policies and their values around the issue. Already we are seeing some trends emerge and divisions widen within the group on trade, which remains in the background compared to hot button policy issues like health care or immigration. Nonetheless, as President Trump continues his trade wars, trade will certainly be a topic of further debate and discussion for the election.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Elections, Trade Policy, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

112. Forecasting Models and the Presidential Vote

Author:
Kenneth Wink
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
Kenneth A. Wink compares and contrasts a number of U.S. presidential election forecasting models and finds that some perform better than others. He argues that some systematic factors have an impact in every election regardless of the characteristics of the candidates, the effectiveness of the campaigns, and the events that occur in a particular election year.
Topic:
Government, Elections, Political Science, and Quantitative
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

113. The Mueller Report: What it Includes, What it Omits, and What it Teaches

Author:
Itai Brun and Tehilla Shwartz Altschuler
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
On April 18, 2019, the US Department of Justice released a redacted version of the full report (448 pages) submitted by Special Counsel Robert Mueller about Russia’s interference in the 2016 US presidential elections. The report consists of two parts: the first presents the outcome of the investigation into Russia’s involvement in the election and draws conclusions regarding the presence or absence of a conspiracy or illegal coordination between the Russians and the Trump campaign; the second part deals with President Trump’s possible obstruction of justice regarding the FBI investigation into the Russian intervention and the investigation by the Special Counsel himself. This essay deals with the first part, i.e., the results of the investigation into the connection between the Russians and Trump for the purpose of influencing the election results. The report reflects accurately the US criminal law that deals with conspiracy and illegal coordination regarding elections. At the same time, it exposes a gap in the nation’s conceptual, organizational, legal, and technological preparedness to confront the possibilities that the digital space provides to undermine – internally and externally – the democratic process. Israel suffers from the same gap, and it is therefore imperative that the state confront it before the next Knesset election.
Topic:
Crime, Elections, Election Interference, and Investigations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and North America

114. The Future of the European Union: Scenarios for the Start of the New Legislature

Author:
Ferdinando Nelli Feroci
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
A few months after the European Parliament elections, and a few weeks before a new European Commission is fully operational, the European Union is facing old and new challenges, both domestic and international. Internally, the EU will soon be testing these new institutions. In the recently elected European Parliament, nationalist and Eurosceptic political forces are a minority, but pro-European mainstream parties, which have the numbers to control the proceedings of the Parliament, have not been able to consolidate a stable and comfortable majority. The new European Commission has encountered setbacks in the confirmation procedure of three of its members and will therefore fully assume its responsibilities with some delay on 1 December.
Topic:
Government, Nationalism, Politics, Elections, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, United States of America, and European Union

115. Election Risk Monitor: Canada

Author:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The Transatlantic Commission on Election Integrity (TCEI), an initiative of the Alliance of Democracies, aims to prevent election interference by advocating for increased transparency and by fighting the use of disinformation in campaigns. The TCEI is systematically assessing the adequacy of laws, policies and practices in democratic states so as to evaluate their electoral resilience and ability to preserve their elections’ integrity. The TCEI met in Ottawa in April to consider Canada’s performance in this regard. This report, the first in a series of Election Risk Monitors from CIGI and TCEI, was prepared as a foundation for that assessment. After reviewing a range of threats and Canada’s new laws, policies and investments designed to anticipate and respond to them, it documents strategies that the Canadian government has adopted at home, as well as its contributions to international efforts. Finally, it outlines the policy choices that lie ahead for Canada regarding the exploitation of social media platforms by malicious actors who have an interest in influencing Canadian elections.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Social Media, and Election watch
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

116. Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election?

Author:
Emily Blanchard, Chad P. Bown, and Davin Chor
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Republican candidates lost support in the 2018 congressional election in counties more exposed to trade retaliation but saw no commensurate electoral gains from US tariff protection. The electoral losses were driven by retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products and were only partially mitigated by the US agricultural subsidies announced in summer 2018. Republicans also fared worse in counties that had seen recent gains in health insurance coverage, affirming the importance of health care as an election issue. A counterfactual calculation suggests that the trade war and health care can account for five and eight of Republicans' lost House seats, respectively.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Trade Wars, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

117. Les médias conservateurs dans la campagne de 2020 : un soutien unanime au président ?

Author:
Sébastien Mort
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
From the 1920s to the 1980s, the American press followed strict discursive practices based on objectivity and fairness. Starting in the 1930s, the country's political center of gravity was on the liberal side and there were few overtly conservative media. From the 1980s onwards, the vast deregulation effort undertaken by the Reagan administration paved the way for the emergence of a powerful conservative media ecosystem. Hosted by strong personalities such as Rush Limbaugh, conservative radio talk-shows were broadcast by a large number of local AM radio stations. Created in 1996, the Fox News channel gained massive traction in the 2000s. Many information websites close to the far right have gradually joined this environment.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Media, Conservatism, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

118. The Battle Heats Up: Climate Issues in the 2020 US Presidential Election

Author:
Arnault Barichella
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Environmental issues have frequently enjoyed bipartisan support in American history: the Clean Air Act was enacted in 1963 under Democratic President Johnson, and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was established in 1970 under Republican President Nixon. This began to change in the 1980s under President Reagan, due to the rise of neoliberal economic theories pioneered by Republicans. Conservatives increasingly viewed environmental regulations as economic impediments. Partisanship on this issue then accelerated throughout the 1990s and 2000s, subject to the influence of powerful lobbying groups. President Bush Jr. refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol in 2001, actively promoted fossil fuels, and his administration attempted to cast doubt about the science of climate change. Climate partisanship somewhat abated during the 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections, since both McCain and Romney were ‘moderate’ Republicans.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Elections, Legislation, Donald Trump, and Barack Obama
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

119. What Diplomats Need to Know about Canadian Elections

Author:
Maureen Boyd and Colin Robertson
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
In response to increasing requests by foreign diplomats to explain our election process, we have written this primer. We are not partisans, although we consulted stakeholders from the different parties as well as experts on Canadian politics, polling and our elections in putting this piece together.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Government, Elections, and Primer
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

120. Rethinking Fiscal Policy: Progressive US Politics Meets Radical Economics

Author:
Stephen Grenville
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Recognition of the need for greater government intervention in the economy is increasingly shaping the US political debate, with this shift paralleled among prominent economists. The surprising success of Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign has emboldened Democratic presidential hopefuls to advocate bold platforms involving larger government. Coincidentally, some prominent economists are advocating greater government expenditure to address ‘secular stagnation’. This is unlikely to result in a radical shift away from the post-Reagan small-government policies, but the centre of gravity has shifted towards recognising a role for more government intervention.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Elections, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America