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172. The Revolution Turns Five: Faculty reflections on the fifth anniversary of the Arab uprisings
- Author:
- Fida Adely, Michael Hudson, Joseph Sassoon, Noureddine Jebnoun, Marwa Daoudy, Emad El-Din Shahin, and Rochelle A. Davis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
- Abstract:
- In this fifth year anniversary of the Arab revolts or “Arab Spring,” we might ask ourselves “what has changed in the region?” Given the conflicts raging in the Arab world as we speak, many have concluded that the revolts failed, or that rather than bringing “progress” they have pushed us back—entrenching authoritarianism, displacing millions, exacerbating sectarian differences, etc. But such conclusions reflect a short view of history and a truncated understanding of change. More troublesome, they can fuel a view of the region as unchanging, stagnant, and even backward.
- Topic:
- Arts, Culture, Social Movement, Economy, Arab Spring, Youth, Syrian War, Revolution, and Counterrevolution
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, Arab Countries, Syria, North America, Egypt, and Tunisia
173. After America, Canada’s Moment?
- Author:
- Ian Brodie
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- The last decade has seen serious setbacks to the global role of the United States. Iraq, Afghanistan and the 2008 economic crisis provoked deep partisan debates about American policy but little in the way of consensus on how to respond. Meanwhile, America’s rivals have gained strength and a new south-south economy of investment and trade has emerged. There is little disagreement that the U.S. has lost its relative power to influence developments around the world. Is this Canada’s moment to extend our global influence? Canada’s privileged geography gives us freedom to choose where and how to engage beyond North America. We have opportunities across the Atlantic and across the Pacific, as evidenced by our simultaneous negotiations at the CETA and TPP tables. But freedom of choice means we have trouble committing to relationships beyond North America. Unlike, say, Australia, which must engage in the Pacific, we face no natural imperative to be “all in” in Asia. Moreover, even though Canada does not have a history as a colonial power, we are often ambivalent about engaging with the new global south. We prefer to deal with emerging economic powers through clubs we already belong to - the G-20, the Commonwealth and the Francophonie. But as south-south institutions displace the influence of the “world America made”, the room for Canada to exercise global influence has declined. We were once welcome as a dependable joiner of international clubs, but we are having trouble joining newer, more dynamic clubs like the Pacific Alliance.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, Economy, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Canada, North America, and United States of America
174. The Littoral World
- Author:
- Howard J. Fuller
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- The role of seapower in nurturing American security and prosperity has long been exaggerated, if not wholly misrepresented. Throughout the nineteenth century, the nation’s first generations of leaders exhibited a healthy skepticism toward free trade and the maritime hegemony of the British Empire. By focusing on domination of the country’s littoral space during the Civil War, the U.S. Navy succeeded in shielding the Union from European interference. It was not the assumption of the British mantle that safeguarded the nation; rather, U.S. preeminence was secured by rejection of maritime overreach. Strong anti-British tariffs and industrial protectionism were the cornerstones of sustained commercial growth and genuine national independence. The unique problem with seapower, even in the contemporary period, is how easily we can glorify it. We love the sea, and mighty ships, and we tend to flaunt what we love, but this relationship has no place in a grand strategy that acknowledges the limited historical contribution of free trade to the American economy.
- Topic:
- Security, History, Economy, Maritime, Oceans and Seas, Trade, and Seapower
- Political Geography:
- Britain, North America, United States of America, and Oceans
175. North Korea: The Myth of Maxed-Out Sanctions
- Author:
- Joshua Stanton
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- On December 19, 2014, President Obama publicly blamed North Korea for the cyberattack against Sony Pictures and for the subsequent cyberterrorism against the American people, and promised to "respond proportionally." Almost immediately thereafter, one could hear a familiar narrative repeated, typified by New York Times correspondent David Sanger, who wrote that "North Korea is under so many sanctions already that adding more seems futile." One could have heard similar arguments in 2006, after North Korea's first nuclear test, and in 2013, after its third nuclear test. A variation of this argument is that “Washington … can do little ... without the cooperation of China.” For years, journalists have quoted “experts” who insisted that U.S. sanctions options against North Korea were exhausted and had failed as an instrument of policy. As a matter of both fact and law, however, that is false; it even suggests that these experts have not read and understood the sanctions authorities. Why does this view persist, then? Some scholars may accept and propagate it because they oppose sanctions as a matter of policy. Others have simply ceased to question a myth that has entered the received wisdom. A true understanding of the potential effectiveness of sanctions first requires an understanding of what these sanctions are, what they are not, and how they work. This article will first summarize the sanctions authorities – U.N. Security Council resolutions, and the U.S. sanctions that should be an important part of the effective enforcement of the measures that the U.N. Security Council has adopted. It will also explain the role of the Treasury Department in regulating the international financial system, and the power this gives the United States to isolate the North Korean government from that system. It will explain which U.S. and U.N. sanctions against North Korea have succeeded and failed, and why. Finally, it will explain what current U.S. national sanctions do, and what they do not do. Only after one understands how little the current sanctions do – and how much they could do – can one begin to understand how to strengthen them into an effective part of a coherent foreign policy...
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, United Nations, Sanctions, Cybersecurity, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
176. Chinese Direct Investment in California
- Author:
- Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- A new report entitled Chinese Direct Investment in California published by the Asia Society finds that California has attracted more Chinese investment deals than any other U.S. state but remains fifth in the nation in total investment value. Negligible before 2008, Chinese investment in the state is growing at triple-digit levels and could reach $60 billion by 2020, but only if the state and private sector do a better job working together to attract Chinese capital. The report is co-authored by Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann of the Rhodium Group and builds on a 2011 Asia Society study, entitled An American Open Door?: Maximizing the Benefits of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment, which looked more broadly at Chinese investment into the U.S. The new report is the most comprehensive study to date of Chinese investment in the Golden State and in the U.S. overall. It finds that the potential gains for California and China are enormous but that success is far from guaranteed. U.S.-China relations remain tense and protectionism is a serious threat. At the state level, California has had a mixed record of promoting its economic strengths. The report urges policy and business leaders in the state to do better to out-compete other states, and nations, that seek to increase their own shares of the Chinese outbound investment surge. Four decades ago, Japanese direct investment in the U.S. was at a similar stage. Now, it totals some $300 billion, employs 700,000 Americans, and undergirds a strong, stable U.S.-Japan relationship. Investment and trade between the U.S. and China show even greater promise today. Compared to the rest of the U.S., the report finds that Chinese investment in California is disproportionately from private rather than state-owned enterprises, greenfield rather than M&As, and strongest in high-tech and high-value services — areas that the Chinese government and private sector have targeted for accelerated growth. Of the $1.3 billion in Chinese investment in the state since 2000, Southern California leads the state in investment with 69 deals totaling $618 million. The San Francisco Bay Area and Silicon Valley/South Bay regions are the second and third most attractive regions for Chinese investors.
- Topic:
- Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, Business, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, California, North America, and United States of America
177. Violence Containment Spending in the United States
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- It has been well established that violence has a marked effect on economic activity with many studies demonstrating the negative economic impacts of crime, incarceration, insurgencies and especially war. However, there have been no studies to systematically aggregate the economic costs of all forms of violence, including the costs of prevention and protection, to understand how much of an economy is captured by violence and violence containment. For the purposes of classification, this form of economic activity has been defined as the violence containment industry (VCI). Aggregated as an industry sector it would be the single largest in the United States. The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) has developed a new methodology to quantify the cost of violence and the economic gains associated with peace for the U.S. economy. All expenditure that is related to violence containment, whether performed by the military on the international stage or domestically through the provision of services to fight crime, has been classified together as the Violence Containment Industry or alternately, as violence containment spending. This provides a framework to classify and better understand a substantial part of the U.S. economy as well as providing a platform for future research. Given the sheer size of the U.S. economy that is dedicated to containing violence, quantifying the expenditure as a discrete industry creates a unique basis for further analysis and debate.
- Topic:
- Economy, Violence, Peace, Society, and Containment
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
178. Strengthening Fragile Partnerships: An Agenda for the Future of U.S.-Central Asia Relations
- Author:
- Evan A. Feigenbaum
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project 2049 Institute
- Abstract:
- A comprehensive new report from the Central Asia Study Group and the Project 2049 Institute calls on American and Central Asian leaders to rise to the challenges and opportunities in the region. The report proposes an action agenda on economics, energy, governance, security, social development, and regional cooperation, and places particular emphasis on the importance of reconnecting Central Asian countries to the global economy. The United States needs to reassess its strategies and policies and reaffirm its commitment to remain engaged with the nations of Central Asia even as the U.S. draws down forces from Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Development, Partnerships, Economy, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia, North America, and United States of America
179. The Role of Monetary Policy in the Face of Crises
- Author:
- Anna J. Schwartz
- Publication Date:
- 07-2007
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- In this article I first review the Greenspan Fed’s record of providing liquidity in response to its perception of shocks the economy is facing. It assumed that the shocks were likely to generate financial crises. No financial crises, however, have occurred. Yet the Fed was dilatory in draining the market of unneeded liquidity. Failure to do so meant that monetary policy remained accommodative. I next discuss whether there is a connection between the Fed’s accommodative policy and the depreciation since 2002 of the exchange value of the dollar as well as the twin deficits and growing global imbalances. In that discussion I refer to the need to raise the national saving rate, in part by eliminating the budget deficit as well as projected deficits from the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare. Monetary policy, however, must be independent of fiscal policy. I conclude with some observations on the advisability of adoption by the Fed of inflation targeting.
- Topic:
- Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
180. Why the U.S. External Imbalance Matters
- Author:
- William R Cline
- Publication Date:
- 01-2007
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Last year the U.S. current account deficit (mainly on trade but including capital income and transfers) reached almost 7 percent of GDP, or about twice as large a share as in 1987, the peak of the previous episode of large external imbalances and dollar overvaluation. A major reason is that from 1995 to 2002 the dollar rose by 28 percent against other currencies, after taking account of inflation and weighting by trade. A strong dollar made U.S. exports expensive and imports cheap, driving up the trade deficit after about a two-year reaction time. With large and persistent external deficits, the United States has swung from being the world’s largest creditor nation to its largest debtor, with net foreign liabilities now at about one-fourth of GDP. The dollar has corrected somewhat and is now about 13 percent lower on a trade-weighted basis than its average in 2002, based on the Federal Reserve’s broad real exchange rate index. Without that partial correction the trade deficit would now be even larger. It will likely require a decline of an additional 15 to 20 percent in the dollar to cut the current account deficit back to about 3 percent of GDP. That rate would be consistent with limiting net foreign liabilities to 50 percent of GDP in the long term. Exceeding that ceiling would seem imprudent for both the U.S. and global economies. It will be crucial that China, Japan, and much of the rest of Asia participate in realignment of their currencies against the dollar, because the decline of the dollar so far has been heavily concentrated against the euro and other industrial country currencies except for the Japanese yen. Dollar correction will also need to be accompanied by fiscal adjustment. Otherwise much of the competitive effect of the dollar adjustment would be offset by higher inflation and a dollar rebound from higher interest rates. Fundamentally the external deficit is the excess of resources used over resources produced, and with U.S. household saving near zero, the government cannot be a large net borrower without keeping the nation in large external deficit.
- Topic:
- Government, Finance, Economy, Currency, and Deficit
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America