Search

Begin New Search Topic Economy Political Geography North America

121. Record Number of Americans Say International Trade Is Good for the US Economy

Author:
Brendan Helm, Dina Smeltz, and Alexander Hitch
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
President Donald Trump has embarked on an ambitious and disruptive trade agenda, driven by his belief that the United States has lost “many billions of dollars” to trading partners and that “trade wars are good, and easy to win.”[1] During his term, the president has escalated trade tensions with China; has renegotiated trade agreements with countries such as Mexico, Canada, and South Korea; and has withdrawn US involvement in trade deals such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The 2019 Chicago Council Survey finds that though Republicans and Democrats differ on whether President Trump’s strategy is an effective approach to trade policy, the American public is more likely than ever to say that international trade benefits the United States.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Economy, and WTO
Political Geography:
Canada, South Korea, North America, Mexico, Global Focus, and United States of America

122. Rebuilding a Bipartisan Consensus on Trade Policy

Author:
Phil Levy
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Once upon a time, there was centrist, bipartisan support for US leadership in crafting an open global trading system. Over recent decades, though, as trade grew more complex, the share of US workers in manufacturing fell, and China emerged as an economic power, that consensus dissolved. By the 2016 election, both major party presidential candidates opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement central to US economic and foreign policy. Lest this opposition seem to represent a new consensus, it ushered in the recent period of political discord over trade. While some praised aggressive US actions to address trade deficits and national security concerns, others worried about the fraying of the global trading system and international markets lost to retaliatory barriers. This book provides the non-specialist reader with the background to understand the debates about trade. It begins by briefly tracing the history of US support for trade, as well as the shifts in the manufacturing sector that helped inspire calls to “make America great again.” It also considers the particular challenges posed by China’s emergence as a trading power while calling into question popular thinking on the resultant “China Shock” to US manufacturing. The book also offers an accessible guide to many of the esoteric topics that underlie today’s trade debates. It starts with tariffs, but proceeds to tackle issues such as trade deficits, intellectual property rights protection, rules of origin for goods, antidumping procedures, labor and environmental protections, and sovereignty. Finally, the book offers ways to move beyond the impasse that had emerged by 2016. Rather than focusing on a specific agreement such as the updated NAFTA (USMCA), it looks at whether deals should be bilateral or multilateral, and just how transparent negotiations need to be. It divides some particularly contentious issues into those that are easily addressed, those that might be feasible with work, and those that are nonstarters. While most of the work to restore a consensus would be difficult, the rewards would be great. The book concludes with a warning that the penalties for not restoring US leadership on trade could be severe.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economy, Trade Policy, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

123. Contraband, Drug Trafficking and the Configuration of Institutional Circuits for their Protection in Mexico / Contrabando,tráficodedrogasylaconfiguracióndecircuitosinstitucionalesparasuprotecciónenMéxico

Author:
Carlos Antonio Flores Pérez
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
In this article analyses the evolution, throughout the XX century, of criminal networks that had participation in illicit trafficking goods and illegal psychoactive drugs- in the Mexican states of Nuevo León and Tamaulipas, in the border with Texas, United States. Based on the information contained in government documents found in the General Archive of the Nation (AGN) of Mexico, federal criminal courts of the United States and newspaper sources, I show the central role played by federal and state institutional actors to consolidate these networks and their illegal activities through the guarantee of impunity. These actors, along with their partners in the business and criminal fields, set up institutional circuits to protect such traffics and allow the integration of illicit capital in the formal economy.
Topic:
Crime, Narcotics Trafficking, Economy, and Capital Flows
Political Geography:
Central America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America

124. Meeting the challenge of secondary sanctions

Author:
Ellie Geranmayeh and Manuel Lafont Rapnouil
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Secondary sanctions have become a critical challenge for Europe, due to the Trump administration’s maximalist policy on Iran and its aggressive economic statecraft. Europe’s vulnerabilities mostly result from asymmetric interdependence with the US economy, due to the size of US markets and the global role of the US dollar. In future, states will likely weaponise economic interdependence with the EU to target countries that are more important to the European economy than Iran, such as China and Russia. European countries should demonstrate that, despite their economic interdependence with the US, they control EU foreign policy. The EU and its member states should strengthen their sanctions policy, begin to build up their deterrence and resilience against secondary sanctions, and prepare to adopt asymmetric countermeasures against any country that harms European interests through secondary sanctions. They should also attempt to bolster the global role of the euro and lead a robust international dialogue on the role of sanctions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sanctions, European Union, Economy, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Iran, North America, and United States of America

125. China’s Economic Slowdown: Root Causes, Beijing’s Response and Strategic Implications for the US and Allies

Author:
John Lee
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
This monograph attempts to argue and/or demonstrate three main points. First, it looks at why there were credible fears about the stability and viability of the Chinese economy — especially the financial and banking system — leading up to the end of the Twelfth Five Year Plan (2011–15), and what these were. To understand why Beijing was so concerned, the monograph draws out the serious structural problems that were leading inevitably to a permanent slowdown from the double-digit growth rates of the first three decades of reform. Second, the monograph looks at what occurred from 2015 to the present, and how China apparently overcame its economic difficulties. In fact, it has not overcome its problems, but deferred them to a future time in ways that only its unique authoritarian political economy is able to do.Third, it is clear the Communist Party is not passively awaiting an unhappy economic fate in connection with its mounting imbalances and domestic economic dysfunction. In many respects, its leaders have been highly creative in seeking solutions that do not entail a weakening of the party’s hold on economic power. On the contrary, the party has been busily shaping and pursuing grand strategic policies such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Made in China 2025 (MIC 2025) to solve or alleviate many of its domestic political-economic problems. This monograph argues that these and other outward-focused initiatives stem most fundamentally from Chinese weaknesses and vulnerabilities but are being remade and recast into initiatives that will strengthen the position of the CCP domestically, ensure greater resilience for its political economy, and advance its ambitious strategic and international objectives at the same time. In summary, it is about the Communist Party cleverly transforming domestic vulnerability into grand strategy and using economic approaches to gain pre-eminence and “win without fighting.”
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, Geopolitics, Economy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

126. Immigration-Related Policy Changes in the First Two Years of the Trump Administration

Author:
Sarah Pierce
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
Since entering office in January 2017, the Trump administration has pressed one of the most assertive agendas on immigration in modern times. And though enforcement actions at the U.S.-Mexico border and in the interior of the country have drawn the most attention, a much more wide-ranging set of immigration-related policy changes has taken place over the past two years. This document chronicles these changes, large and small, broken down by major issue area. Among other things, it includes Justice Department policies that affect how the immigration courts operate, humanitarian programs and statuses, adjustments to how the State Department processes visa applications and admits foreign nationals to the United States, and enforcement changes. These policy changes have been accomplished unilaterally by the executive branch at a time when Congress has largely avoided taking on immigration-related legislation. They have come in the form of hundreds of policy memos, regulatory changes, and more. Some of these changes have been slowed or stopped by the courts, including attempts to prevent foreign nationals who cross the U.S. border illegally from receiving asylum, but most have gone into effect.
Topic:
Immigration, Border Control, Employment, Economy, Public Policy, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

127. Credentials for the Future: Mapping the Potential for Immigrant-Origin Adults in the United States

Author:
Jeanne Batalova and Michael Fix
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
As the U.S. workforce ages, baby boomers retire, and birth rates decline, the United States is facing an estimated shortfall of 8 million workers between now and 2027. At the same time, the U.S. economy is becoming ever more knowledge-based. Having a marketable postsecondary credential, whether an academic degree or a professional certification or license, has become more of a necessity to secure a job that pays a family-sustaining wage. Amid these economic changes, immigrant-origin adults—that is, immigrants and their U.S.-born children—are projected to be the primary source of future labor-force growth. Yet about 30 million of the 58 million immigrant-origin adults in the country as of 2017 did not have a postsecondary credential, representing 30 percent of all U.S. adults without one. These immigrants and their children are thus an important target group for efforts by governments, educational institutions, civil society, and employers to boost the credential attainment of U.S. workers. This report offers a first-of-its-kind profile of immigrant-origin adults without postsecondary credentials, including a look at key sociodemographic characteristics, geographic distribution, and factors such as English proficiency and legal status that can affect their access to workforce programs. It also considers the labor-market returns of nondegree credentials, finding that immigrant-origin adults who hold such certifications or licenses have higher rates of labor-market participation, higher wages, and lower unemployment than counterparts who lack them. “Helping a significant share of these 30 million immigrant-origin adults obtain postsecondary credentials,” the authors conclude, is “a critical tool in meeting national and state education goals, addressing current and projected labor shortages, and raising labor productivity.”
Topic:
Education, Immigration, Economy, Vocational Training, and Integration
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

128. Rethinking U.S. Immigration Policy: New Realities Call for New Answers

Author:
Doris Meissner
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The U.S. immigration system is in desperate need of an overhaul—and has been for many years. What has been missing is an alternate vision for a path forward that treats immigration as a comparative advantage and strategic resource, while also accounting for heightened security and rule-of-law imperatives, that can together further U.S. interests, values, and democratic principles as a society. This concept note outlines a new MPI initiative, Rethinking U.S. Immigration Policy, that seeks to fill this gap. The multiyear initiative will generate a big-picture, evidence-driven vision of the role immigration can and should play in the future of the United States, acknowledging policymakers are operating against a backdrop of globalization challenges, tech-induced disruptions reshaping the future of work, growing competition for talent, and national polities increasingly skeptical of government’s ability to manage migration. The initiative's starting point is to recognize that there are new realities facing the United States that should drive immigration policymaking in the coming period, not a return to the tired debates of the past 20 years that have foundered again and again amid rising partisanship and polarization. Among these new realities: a rising old-age dependency ratio, changing challenges at the U.S.-Mexico border, need for greater flexibility in the immigration systems as other countries have modernized their immigrant-selection systems, and a shattering of the bipartisan consensus that for decades has seen legal immigration as a positive. Historically, immigration policymaking and legislation have only succeeded through across-the-aisle cooperation and a search for common ground. This initiative is committed to re-energizing such bipartisanship and recapturing a new center in formulating and advancing fresh, feasible solutions.
Topic:
Immigration, Border Control, Employment, and Economy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

129. How Does Immigration Fit into the Future of the U.S. Labor Market?

Author:
Pia M. Orrenius, Madeline Zavodny, and Stephanie Gullo
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
2018 was a banner year for the U.S. economy, but long-run projections are much less bright. Intensifying forces—including the aging of the workforce, stagnating labor force participation rates, and emerging gaps between the skills U.S. employers seek and those workers possess—are poised to significantly reshape the U.S. labor market. Other trends, including globalization and automation, are likely to dramatically transform how and where work is done. Against the backdrop of these changes, this think piece asks: What role can immigration play in bolstering future workforce and economic growth, and meeting shifting demand for both high- and low-skilled labor? In addition to supporting labor force growth, the brief’s authors conclude that immigrant workers can help mitigate a number of other symptoms of the U.S. economy’s long-run malaise, including low productivity growth, declining domestic geographic mobility, and falling entrepreneurship. But while immigration may benefit employers, consumers, and some U.S. workers, it can adversely affect others, particularly low-skilled U.S. natives and earlier-arrived immigrants. A plan to increase employment-based immigration, the authors contend, should thus be paired with policies and programs to support these groups in acquiring new skills and shifting to growing sectors. The brief is part of MPI’s multiyear Rethinking U.S. Immigration Policy initiative, which aims to generate a big-picture, evidence-driven vision for the role immigration can and should play in America’s future. To learn more about the initiative and read related research, check out the initiative's home page.
Topic:
Education, Immigration, Employment, Economy, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

130. The Forgotten Americans: An Economic Agenda for a Divided Nation, Isabel Sawhill

Author:
Mark Joseph Stelzner
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
Income inequality in the United States has been increasing rapidly over the last 40 years. This, paired with weak economic growth, means that many Americans have been left behind. In her book, Forgotten Americans: An Economic Agenda for a Divided Nation, Isabel Sawhill proposes a “radical centrist” response of promoting social responsibility, increased vocational and private sector training, and social insurance reform. While inequality is an important issue that needs an immediate response, Sawhill misdiagnoses both the economic and political roots of inequality and proposes a narrow solution that ironically is not radical but parallels much of the policy that created current inequality and Trumpism.
Topic:
Income Inequality, Economy, Book Review, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America