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242. What Turkey’s Political Changes Mean for U.S.-Turkish Relations
- Author:
- Max Hoffman, Alan Makovsky, and Michael Werz
- Publication Date:
- 07-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- The July 9 swearing-in of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for his second term as Turkey’s president—and his subsequent decree1 thoroughly restructuring the Turkish government—have inaugurated a new phase in the country’s political history. Erdoğan will preside over a new system in which power is even more centralized in the office of the presidency than it was previously. Of course, this structure represents the institutionalization of what had been a de facto reality: Erdoğan was already the unassailable top decision-maker, and he will remain so. This continuity means that there may be little visible change in many areas of government. But the shift is emblematic of Turkey’s transformation over the last decade from an institutional, bureaucratic state into a highly personalized one. This personalization will affect Turkey’s foreign policy management, which may become even more unpredictable than it was before, with ramifications for U.S. and EU policy. As just one element of this change, Western diplomats may find that long-time Turkish diplomatic or military contacts have diminished authority and responsibility as foreign and security policy development is centralized in the presidential palace.2 Given his complete personal control, it is time to take seriously President Erdoğan’s apparent desire for Turkey to chart a more independent course, one that shows less deference to the ties that have long bound Turkey to the Western security architecture. During the swearing-in ceremony in Ankara, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro hailed his Turkish counterpart as the “leader of the new multi-polar world.”3 Erdoğan and his advisers certainly share this view: They believe that the United States is in decline, that the world is fundamentally multipolar, and that Turkey deserves to be a center of gravity in its own right.4 They further feel that the West is hypocritical in its espousal of democratic values and human rights. Therefore, they have concluded that Turkey’s traditional, Western-oriented foreign policy is obsolete.5 This worldview has led Erdoğan to adopt a transactional approach toward the United States and Europe and cultivate ties with Iran, China, and—especially—Russia.6 Alongside this understanding of a changing world, President Erdoğan has built his domestic political legitimacy on an aggressive nationalism that includes at its core deeply anti-Western and anti-American rhetoric.7 This was on full display in Erdoğan’s recent electoral campaign, which relied heavily on anti-Western resentment, conspiratorial thinking, and the cultivation of a sense of national threat—all staples of the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) politics in recent years. Meanwhile, the election empowered the extreme nationalists of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). This will only reinforce the negative trends in the government’s political orientation, given the MHP’s deep suspicion toward the United States and hostility toward any reopening of dialogue with Kurdish populations in eastern Turkey and northern Syria. This issue brief considers the ramifications of these changes for U.S. policy, providing recommendations for how the U.S. government should approach bilateral relations with Turkey in the months ahead. It is a policy designed to maintain the viability of U.S.-Turkish relations while seeking to restore Turkish respect for U.S. interests.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, North America, and United States of America
243. The Limits of Material Benefits: Remittances and Pro-Americanism in Mexico
- Author:
- Convadonga Meseguer, Jaupart Pascal, and Javier Aparicio
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- We explore how the reception of remittances affects perceptions of the bilateral relationship between Mexico and the United States. Scholars have claimed that the economic benefits of the relationship with the US prevail over imperialistic concerns as a result of the asymmetry of power between the two countries. Empirical research shows that Latin American public opinion is indeed more supportive of the US than theory indicates. However, we identify two gaps in this literature. First, scholars have explored the determinants of generic expressions of sentiment toward the US, overlooking more concrete instances of cooperation between the two countries. Second, scholars have focused on trade and investment and have ignored how the material gains of emigration shape attitudes toward the US. The present paper fills these two gaps by using novel survey data on the bilateral relationship between Mexico and the US. On one hand, we find that while the reception of remittances correlates positively with good sentiments toward the US, the recipients of remittances are consistently more opposed to cooperation with the US in the fight against drug trafficking. We argue that this finding can be explained by the different nature of the migratory phenomenon, and the connection between anti-drug trafficking policies and the close scrutiny of illegal flows of money and people.
- Topic:
- Imperialism, Migration, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Trafficking, Borders, and Drugs
- Political Geography:
- United States, Latin America, North America, and Mexico
244. How buzz on Russia dossier undermines bilateral relations between Moscow and Washington
- Author:
- Andrei Korobkov
- Publication Date:
- 11-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- The buzz surrounding the so-called “Russian trace” in the U.S. elections, started by former presidential candidate from the Democratic party Hillary Clinton during her 2016 failed presidential campaign, continues to evolve. New accusations spring up, leading to new investigations. Started in mid-2016 by Clinton’s claims about the Russian hackers, who allegedly disclosed information contained on the Democratic Party National Committee servers, it increasingly targets the members of President Donald Trump’s inner circle, including some of his family members. Appointed to deal initially with a narrow set of issues, the Independent Prosecutor Robert Mueller, the former FBI Director, has to deal with the quickly expanding set of claims and accusations.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, Bilateral Relations, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America
245. Policy Options for the Softwood Lumber Dispute, Round 5
- Author:
- Steven Holloway
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Security and Development, Dalhousie University
- Abstract:
- Canadian softwood lumber exports to the US have been a perennial trade irritant since at least the 1980s. But recently a “perfect storm” of factors, including a year of increased exports with the ending of the 2006 SLA (Softwood Lumber Agreement) restrictions in October 2015, the recent fall in the Canadian dollar and the unexpected election of the protectionist Donald Trump, all have conspired to make this fifth round of disputation, front-and-centre to the challenged US-Canada bilateral relationship.
- Topic:
- Environment, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Canada, North America, and United States of America
246. Joaquim Nabuco, A Brazilian Light in Washington
- Author:
- Bruno Rosi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- Throughout the 19th century, Brazil and the United States had little intense bilateral relations. This picture changed when the Baron of Rio Branco decided that his country should privilege relations with the United States. As part of his plan the Baron named Joaquim Nabuco as Brazil's first ambassador to Washington. However, Nabuco had an Americanism distinct from that of the Baron. He believed in the possibility of transforming the American continent into a zone of peace. This Americanism was linked to Nabuco's liberal world view, already evident in his struggle against slavery and in his pre-diplomatic intellectual trajectory.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- United States, Brazil, South America, and North America
247. The United States in the Czech Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Jan Hornát
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- Institute of International Relations Prague
- Abstract:
- The year 2017 was mainly a transition year for Czech foreign policy towards the United States, as the Czech side was gradually getting acquainted with and monitoring the positions and perspectives of the new administration. President Trump’s often ambivalent rhetoric regarding transatlantic relations and various multilateral frameworks has brought increased uncertainty as to what role Washington intends to play in the world and how it plans to co-operate with its global partners. Due to personnel changes in key offices in the executive branch of the US government, higher-level bilateral security, foreign policy and economic dialogues between the Czech Republic and the US did not take place during the year, albeit with a positive outlook for their resumption in 2018. During 2017, a part of the bilateral agenda consisted of preparations for the commemoration of one hundred years of official ties between the two countries, which will be celebrated throughout 2018. The bilateral trade with the US increased but ended with a deficit for the Czech side. The two countries’ defence and security co-operation can also be rated as strengthened mainly due to the continuing activities of the Czech Republic in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North America, Czech Republic, and United States of America
248. Russia and USA: Rhetoric and Reality
- Author:
- Dmitry V. Shlapentokh
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations
- Institution:
- School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
- Abstract:
- Moralization is an essential part of any geo-political game, and that is especially the case with countries such as the United States and Russia. Presently, Washington has become especially prone to playing the morality card. At least, that is the case with Hillary Clinton supporters who stated that the ugliness of Donald Trump is clearly manifested by his desire to overlook the noble principles on which American foreign policy has rested since the founding fathers designed it. Consequently, Trump’s desire to befriend Vladimir Putin, the authoritarian Russian President, is a clear departure from his basic principles. Moscow also likes to assure that Russia always follows high moral principles in its foreign policy design. Still, Kremlin residents mostly limited moralizing to an internal audience, whereas people in Washington made the moralization publicly known to an international audience, urbis and orbis, so to speak. A closer look at the Soviet/Russia and the U.S. relationship could reveal that it is not high principles, whatever they might be in the context of the prevailing ideological shibboleth, but rather it is pragmatism that defines their relationship. The image of both countries has followed the pragmatic model. This implies that the U.S. and Russia could well cooperate in the future despite hostile rhetoric that dominated discourse in Moscow and Washington – a rhetoric that might not disappear completely in the future.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and History
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Eurasia, Soviet Union, North America, and United States of America
249. Indo-U.S. Relations: Mapping the Contours
- Author:
- Ankita Gothwal
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The current state of India-U.S. relations marks a complete turnaround of the diplomatic stalemate that marked the two countries’ relationship during the Cold War. A quintessential example of this strategic transformation can be found through India’s quest to build an aircraft carrier. The United States has come a long way from its 1971 decision to send the USS Enterprise to the Bay of Bengal to deter India. In 2015, the United States began cooperating with India to build a carrier at Kochi port.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America
250. American Jews and Israel: The End of ‘Israel, Right or Wrong’
- Author:
- Dov Waxman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Although Jews make up just 2 percent of the United States population, they have exercised a disproportionate influence on the relationship between the United States and Israel. The strength of the U.S.-Israeli alliance is driven by numerous strategic, political, cultural, and economic factors, but American Jews have played a key role in the promotion and defense of the U.S.-Israel alliance in large part through the work of the pro-Israel lobby (represented by powerful groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee). Today, however, American Jewish political support for Israel can no longer be taken for granted, as growing numbers of American Jews become increasingly critical of Israel. In contrast to the old attitude of “Israel, Right or Wrong,” more and more American Jews, especially younger ones, are challenging the Israeli government’s policies and actions, particularly those concerning Palestinians. In short, the age of unconditional American Jewish support for Israel is over.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Ethnicity, Judaism, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America