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2. Lost in transition: The Muslim Brotherhood in 2022
- Author:
- Matteo Colombo
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
- Abstract:
- Hamstrung by decades of repression, mistrust and a lack of governance experience, Muslim Brotherhood-linked parties were ultimately unable to navigate the post-2011 tensions between the need to deliver on the popular demands of the Arab uprisings and maintain ideological coherence. Similarly, they struggled to retain their revolutionary credentials and at the same time compromise with ruling elites in order to govern. While this was always a tall order, the consequence has been that decline and crisis followed the organisation’s initial ascent between 2011 and 2013. The Muslim Brotherhood gradually lost its ideological influence over parties it had inspired following the 2013 military takeover against Mohamed Morsi in Egypt. From this year onwards, growing repression, marginalisation and factionalism accelerated the movement’s decline. The arrest and exile of leading Muslim Brotherhood individuals created a leadership void and opened up space for internal strife. Today, the Muslim Brotherhood is a shadow of its former self and in crisis. In parallel to the decline of the Muslim Brotherhood, the legitimacy and relevance of jihadism, political Salafism and Iran’s model of religious rule also appear to have weakened, respectively due to the ‘defeat’ of Islamic State, Saudi modernisation and the poor to mediocre governance provided by Tehran’s partners. This raises the question what major religiously inspired sources of political renewal and mobilisation remain across the Middle East and North Africa that are capable of offering credible prospects for better governance.
- Topic:
- Governance, Islamism, Legitimacy, and Muslim Brotherhood
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt
3. Libya’s Zero-Sum Politics and Defiance of Legitimacy – Part 1
- Author:
- Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- There has been fluctuation and reconstruction of political legitimacy. Since the summer of 2014, two battles over legitimacy have spoiled Libyan politics and weakened the UN mediation with two rounds of international recognition of one new political institution or another.
- Topic:
- Politics, United Nations, Conflict, and Legitimacy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, and North Africa
4. Libya’s Zero-Sum Politics and Defiance of Legitimacy – Part 2
- Author:
- Mohammed Cherkaoui
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Foreign manipulation defies the wisdom of envisioning a political settlement of the Libyan conflict. All international diplomatic gestures need to be aligned via the UN platform, with a well-defined trajectory, rather than any zero-game equation or realist calculation.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Politics, United Nations, Conflict, and Legitimacy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, and North Africa
5. Ennahda’s Uneasy Exit From Political Islam
- Author:
- Hamza Meddeb
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- In 2016, Islamist political party Ennahda decided to abandon preaching and focus on politics, precipitating an identity crisis within the party. It faced new challenges, including rethinking the role of Islam, addressing its own neutralization as a driver of socioeconomic change, and managing its core supporters while appealing to a broader electorate. Ennahda’s shift to politics has forced it to rethink its ideological framework and rebuild its legitimacy based on arguments other than religion.
- Topic:
- Islam, Politics, Religion, Legitimacy, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
6. The Social Contract: An Analytical Tool for Countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Beyond
- Author:
- Markus Loewe, Bernhard Trautner, and Tina Zintl
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- The social contract is a key concept in social science literature focusing on state–society relations. It refers to the “entirety of explicit or implicit agreements between all relevant societal groups and the sovereign (i.e. the government or any other actor in power), defining their rights and obligations towards each other” (Loewe & Zintl, forthcoming). The analysis of social contracts helps the understanding of: (i) why some societal groups are socially, politically or economically better off than others, (ii) why some revolt and demand a new social contract and, thus, (iii) why a country descends into violent conflict. In addition, the concept shows how foreign interventions and international co-operation may affect state–society relations by strengthening the position of the state or of specific societal groups. It illustrates that state fragility, displacement and migration can arise from social contracts becoming less inclusive. Nevertheless, the term “social contract” has so far been neither well defined nor operationalised – to the detriment of both research and of bi- and multilateral co-operation. Such a structured analytical approach to state–society relations is badly needed both in research and in politics, in particular but not exclusively for the analysis of MENA countries. This briefing paper sets the frame, suggesting a close analysis of (i) the scope of social contracts, (ii) their substance and (iii) their temporal dimension. After independence, MENA governments established a specific kind of social contract with citizens, mainly based on the redistribution of rents from natural resources, development aid and other forms of transfers. They provided subsidised food and energy, free public education and government jobs to citizens in compensation for the tacit recognition of political regimes’ legitimacy despite a lack of political participation. But with growing populations and declining state revenues, some governments lost their ability to fulfil their duties and focused spending on strategically important social groups, increasingly tying resource provision to political acquiescence. The uprisings that took place in many Arab countries in 2011 can be seen as an expression of deep dissatisfaction with social contracts that no longer provided either political participation or substantial social benefits (at least for large parts of the population). After the uprisings, MENA countries developed in different directions. While Tunisia is a fair way towards more inclusive development and political participation, Morocco and Jordan are trying to restore some parts of the former social contract, providing for paternalistic distribution without substantial participation. In Egypt’s emerging social contract, the government promises little more than individual and collective security, and that only under the condition of full political acquiescence. Libya, Yemen and Syria have fallen into civil wars with no countrywide new contract in sight, and Iraq has been struggling for one since 2003. In addition, flight and migration also affect the social contracts of neighbouring countries such as Jordan, Turkey, and Lebanon. All MENA countries are designing, or will need to design, new social contracts in order to reduce the current instability and enable physical reconstruction. This briefing paper informs on the status of conceptual considerations of social contract renegotiation in MENA countries and its meaning for international co-operation with them.
- Topic:
- Government, Governance, Legitimacy, Institutions, Services, and Social Contract
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
7. The Rise and the Future of Militias in the MENA Region
- Author:
- Ranj Alaaldin, Federica Saini Fasanotti, Arturo Varvelli, and Tarik M. Yousef
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- In recent decades, militias and sub-national armed groups have played a decisive role in politics and security in the MENA region. Their prominence with local and outside actors in areas where state institutions have collapsed presents multiple policy challenges. Armed groups have access to substantial resources and in some cases enjoy considerable local legitimacy. That makes them formidable but also resilient forces. This is why their suppression – through coercive measures or marginalization – can bring more costs than benefits to already fragile state institutions and exhausted populations. This volume addresses the void in the current debate on subnational armed groups, focusing particularly on the multiple ongoing conflicts and turmoil in the MENA region. It places a particular emphasis on whether armed groups can be integrated into state-building initiatives and whether they can play a constructive role with other key actors.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Legitimacy, and Militias
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
8. The MENA Region: A Great Power Competition
- Author:
- Karim Mezran and Arturo Varvelli
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- The MENA Region: A Great Power Competition volume deals with competition among regional and external players for the redistribution of power and international status in the Middle East and North Africa, with a focus on Russia’s renewed role and the implications for US interests. Over the last few years, a crisis of legitimacy has beset the liberal international order. In this context, the configuration of regional orders has come into question, as in the extreme case of the current collapse in the Middle East. The idea of a ‘Russian resurgence' in the Middle East set against a perceived American withdrawal has captured the attention of policymakers and scholars alike, warranting further examination. This volume, a joint publication by ISPI and the Atlantic Council, gathers analysis on Washington's and Moscow's policy choices in the MENA region and develops case studies of the two powers’ engagement in the countries beset by major crises.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Legitimacy, Engagement, Strategic Competition, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Middle East, North Africa, and United States of America
9. Factors Undermining Legitimacy in Libya
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The security situation in Libya continues to deteriorate despite a steady growth in state security forces. Ongoing bombings, assassinations, kidnappings and smuggling are seen as a failure of the state authority and have prompted retired General Khalifa Haftar to call for the toppling of the General National Congress (GNC) and Libyan government. There was limited popular or military and armed factions support for this call; however, there has been some public sentiment calling for a strong military figure to contain disorder. They are opposed by Libyans who hold reservations about change by force. Haftar’s call, then, serves to extend regional trends and complicate the containment of federalism. It is also further consolidation of competition between figureheads occurring undemocratically and external to electoral processes.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil War, Conflict, and Legitimacy
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
10. Sisi as President: Questionable Legitimacy, Unclear Future
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- On 8 June 2014, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Egypt’s former Minister of Defence, was sworn in before the Supreme Constitutional Court as President of the Egyptian Republic. On 3 July 2013, Marshal Sisi, a general at the time, led the Egyptian army to overthrow President Mohamed Morsi after only one year in office. The lavish formalities of the inauguration swept through some circles with euphoria. For others, it only intensified feelings of calamity dating back to the 30 June 2013 demonstrations, when the military command overthrew the first popularly-elected civilian president in the history of Egypt. It is important to note that the current euphoria of victory is not related to Sisi winning the majority in the recent Egyptian presidential election because his victory was clear even before the election. Rather, it is a function of the Egyptian deep state’s victory against the challenges and risks that have threatened it since the overthrow of the Mubarak regime on 11 February 2011.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, Authoritarianism, Legitimacy, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Egypt