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22. Threats to Security in the Sahel: The Mali Crisis
- Author:
- Mohamed Mahmoud Mohamed Salah
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- This issue brief provides a view from the Sahel on the current threats to peace and security in the region. As part of its project on peace and security in the Sahel- Sahara region, IPI's Africa Program has partnered with the Mauritania-based think tank, the Centre for Strategies for Security in the Sahel Sahara Region. The Centre 4S was established in June 2011 to help countries in the Sahel take the lead in transforming the region's daunting security and development challenges into opportunities. Originally written in French, this June 2012 research paper from the Centre 4S examines the principal threats to peace and security in the Sahel and their impact on development. It then offers proposals and recommendations for surmounting the current conflicts before presenting possible future scenarios for the region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Development, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- North Africa
23. Salvaging Sinai
- Author:
- Nicolas Pelham
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- The August 5th 2012 attack that killed 16 Egyptian soldiers in the nexus where Gaza, Egypt and Israel meet has spurred Egypt's greatest effort to reassert its authority over the Sinai since recovering the territory from Israel in 1982. Nevertheless, armed Bedouin groups backed by jihadi allies continue to confound their efforts. Only the integration of Sinai's Bedouin into Egypt's security, political and economic fabric will restore the buy-in of the indigenous population that is vital for both the success of the country's military campaign and the stabilisation of this strategic corridor linking Asia to Africa – and of post-revolutionary Egypt itself. The identities of the attackers have yet to be made public. Most were likely Sinai Bedouin, with perhaps some Palestinian support. But the fact that this attack is not an isolated incident and has been succeeded and preceded by many others suggests that North Sinai has become an environment for the killing of Egyptian soldiers and the destruction of Egyptian installations. This report examines the causes of the prevailing anti-government temperament in North Sinai, which is home to approximately 75% of Sinai's half a million people; tracks the development of quasi self-rule since the fall of Mubarak; and offers a few suggestions for the stabilisation of Sinai within a future regional economic and security framework.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Arabia, North Africa, Egypt, and Sinai Peninsula
24. The reshaping of West Africa after Mu'ammar Qaddafi's fall
- Author:
- Roland Marchal
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Muammar Qaddafi's overthrow was interpreted in the West as the removal of a tyranny and an expression of regional democratisation dynamics. Concerned with their own interests, Western powers have not paid attention to key factors affecting political developments in the wider region.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Democratization, Regime Change, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Arabia and North Africa
25. Elections in Libya
- Author:
- George Joffé
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- The election of a new national assembly in Libya is good news in several respects after a decidedly difficult transition from the elation that accompanied the collapse of the Gaddafi regime last October to the realities of reconstructing the Libyan state. Perphaps the first piece of good news is the simple fact that it actually took place and did so in a relatively peaceful atmosphere. Secondly, the electoral process has been judged by outside observers to have been free and fair. And, finally, the outcome seems to have been a victory for moderation, rather than an outright win for Libya's Islamist movements - unlike the situation elsewhere.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Islam, Politics, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Arab Countries and North Africa
26. Tunisie : lutter contre l'impunité, restaurer la sécurité
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Dans un contexte arabe marqué par des transitions bâclées ou sanglantes, la Tunisie fait encore figure d'exception. Depuis le 14 janvier 2011, ce n'est pas seulement la tête de l'ancien régime, symbolisé par l'ancien président Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, qui est tombée. C'est tout un système qui se trouve bouleversé, principalement dans le cadre d'un consensus relativement large. Mais les défis qui pourraient menacer ces progrès existent. Parmi ceux-ci, deux en particulier sont étroitement liés : restaurer la sécurité et mener une véritable lutte contre l'impunité. Pour le nouveau gouvernement d'union, dénommé Troïka et emmené par le mouvement islamiste An-Nahda, la clé demeure dans un dialogue large, permettant de réformer les forces de sécurité sans trop les provoquer, rendre justice aux victimes de la dictature sans céder à la chasse aux sorcières, et garantir une justice efficace tout en tenant compte des limites du système judiciaire en place.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Government, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- Arabia and North Africa
27. Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (VII): The Syrian Regime's Slow-motion Suicide
- Publication Date:
- 07-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Desperate to survive at all costs, Syria's regime appears to be digging its grave. It did not have to be so. The protest movement is strong and getting stronger but yet to reach critical mass. Unlike toppled Arab leaders, President Bashar Assad enjoyed some genuine popularity. Many Syrians dread chaos and their nation's fragmentation. But whatever opportunity the regime once possessed is being jeopardised by its actions. Brutal repression has overshadowed belated, half-hearted reform suggestions; Bashar has squandered credibility; his regime has lost much of the legitimacy derived from its foreign policy. The international community, largely from fear of the alternative to the status quo, waits and watches, eschewing for now direct involvement. That is the right policy, as there is little to gain and much to lose from a more interventionist approach, but not necessarily for the right reasons. The Syrian people have proved remarkably resistant to sectarian or divisive tendencies, defying regime prophecies of confessional strife and Islamisation. That does not guarantee a stable, democratic future. But is a good start that deserves recognition and support.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Regime Change, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, North Africa, and Syria
28. Libya: Beyond Regime Change
- Author:
- Henrik Boesen Lindbo Larsen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- NATO's intervention in Libya has highlighted the risks connected with enforcement of humanitarian principles in Europe's neighbourhood through engaging in regime change. The EU now seems to remain the only viable forum if the Western states wish to play a more permanent role in Libya.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Regime Change, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Libya, Arabia, and North Africa
29. Stakeholders of Libya's February 17 Revolution
- Author:
- Susanne Tarkowski Tempelhof and Manal Omar
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Who the rebels are in Libya has been a common question surrounding the revolution that overthrew Muammar Gadhafi. This report maps out the factions in Libya's east, centering on Benghazi. It identifies the various groups, their narratives, their part in the revolution, and emergent grievances that could translate into instability or future conflicts. Libyans share a strong sense of historical narrative and ownership of the recent revolution, but complexities lie within that ownership. There are tensions between the youth movement and the National Transitional Council; between local Libyans and returning members of the Libyan diaspora; between secular groups and religious ones, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood; within militia groups that did the fighting; and among Libya's tribes and ethnic groups. The widespread sense of ownership of the revolution, which kept morale high during the fighting, has translated to expectations of quick improvements, both overall and in people's day-to-day lives. Managing expectations will be key to ensuring that tensions within Libyan society do not overcome the sense of unity that the revolution fostered. International actors should ensure that local ownership of the political process remains at the fore and is not undermined. In addition, research is needed to understand the situation in Libya more clearly, in order to identify ways that the international community can support, aid, and advise local efforts in forming a stable and secure environment in Libya.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Self Determination
- Political Geography:
- Libya, Arabia, and North Africa
30. Growing Jasmines: What should the EU do in Tunisia now?
- Author:
- Fabrizio Tassinari, Ulla Holm, and Helle Malmvig
- Publication Date:
- 01-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The EU misread the situation in Tunisia. However, the fact that the EU approach did not work as expected should not lead now to a hasty overhaul of the existing policy framework. But the EU will have to be clearer, smarter and stricter about how its policy instruments are implemented.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Regime Change, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Arabia, and North Africa