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51. Rethinking Islamist Politics

Author:
Khalil al-Anani, Mokhtar Awad, Steven Brooke, Michaelle Browers, and Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
The Arab uprisings of 2011 radically reshaped the environment within which Islamist movements had evolved over the preceding decades, causing rapid, disorienting changes in their strategies, ideologies, and organizations. The last three years have produced an enormous amount of new information about these movements: detailed election results; factional and generational and intra-Islamist rivalries spilling out into public; varying degrees of political polarization between Islamists and their rivals; the erratic performance of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood after coming to power through elections and the fallout from its removal through popular protest and military coup; the emergence of a sharp public backlash against the Brotherhood in Egypt, at least, and a crackdown on its social services; a new regionwide campaign designating the Brotherhood as a terrorist organization; the surprising evolution of al Qaeda and jihadist movements from Syria and Iraq through North Africa. In January 2014, the Project on Middle East Political Science therefore convened a workshop with fifteen leading academic specialists on Islamist movements in the Arab Middle East and charged them with rethinking key assumptions, arguments, evidence and research programs in light of these three tumultuous years. The workshop brought together European and American academics with specialties ranging from mainstream movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood to jihadists and non-violent Salafists, and with expertise on countries ranging from the Gulf through Egypt and the Levant to North Africa. This special POMEPS Briefing collects the memos prepared for the workshop. The short essays collected here touch on many of these issues, pointing towards a rich set of compelling new theoretical and empirical questions with which the field must now grapple.
Topic:
Politics, Salafism, Arab Spring, Political Science, Islamism, and Muslim Brotherhood
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

52. Reflections on the Arab Uprisings

Author:
Nathan Brown, Daniel Brumberg, Clement M. Henry, Vickie Langohr, and Ellen Lust
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
'Tis the season to reflect upon the course of the Arab uprisings. Over the last few weeks I have participated in three major workshops including nearly 50 scholars – and had to miss yet another in favor of a quick trip to Tunisia. It is not difficult to understand this intense urge to take stock, given the sorry state of the region and catastrophic results of virtually every one of the 2011 uprisings. The overblown criticisms of the field of Middle East political science over its failure to predict the uprisings have been thoroughly aired by this point. But what about the field’s performance during the Arab uprisings? Academics have written an unprecedented amount of real-time analysis and commentary over the last few years. What did we miss, misinterpret, exaggerate or rush to premature judgments about along the way? The first of the workshops focused explicitly on this question. I asked a group of the authors from my edited volume The Arab Uprisings Explained: New Contentious Politics in the Middle East to write short memos assessing their contributions critically after having another year to reflect. Those memos have been published as POMEPS Studies 10 Reflections on the Arab Uprisings. Their auto-critique is full of worthy observations: We paid too much attention to the activists and not enough to the authoritarians; we understated the importance of identity politics; we assumed too quickly that successful popular uprisings would lead to a democratic transition; we under-estimated the key role of international and regional factors in domestic outcomes; we took for granted a second wave of uprisings, which thus far has yet to materialize; we under-stated the risk of state failure and over-stated the possibility of democratic consensus.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Arab Spring, and Identity
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

53. Libya: A Transition Threatened by the Jamahiriyya Legacy (Libye : une transition à l’épreuve du legs de la Jamahiriyya)

Author:
Luis Martinez
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
In post-Qadhafi Libya, the authorities are in search of a new art of governing. Despite the legitimacy accorded them by elections, they remain very weak. Without any means of coercion, they are constantly obliged to negotiate for their survival, threatened by those who were not chosen by voters but who instead draw their legitimacy from their participation in the revolution – the militias. The challenge facing the Libyan authorities is not so much to combat these forces but to harness them. Libya has not undertaken a process of “de-Qadhafication.” But for the militias, in particular the Islamists, the presence of former officials and leaders in the state apparatus is intolerable. Thus, on May 5, 2013 they pressured the parliament into passing a law excluding from politics persons who occupied positions of responsibility under the old regime. If the revolutionary brigades continue to impose their will on the government, the fall of Qadhafi’s regime will have not brought about political change in Libya but rather the continuation of former political practices under a new guise.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, Democratization, Sociology, Governance, Elections, Arab Spring, Political outlook, Protests, and State
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, and North Africa

54. Failed States Index 2013: The Book

Author:
J. J. Messner, Nate Haken, Krista Hendry, Patricia Taft, Kendall Lawrence, Sebastian Pavlou, and Felipe Umana
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Failed States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Failed States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Fragile/Failed State, Arab Spring, Peace, State Building, and Human Security
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, Somalia, South Sudan, and Global Focus

55. What the Women Say: From Subjects to Citizens: Women in Post-Revolutionary Libya

Author:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Abstract:
In February of 2011, a group of Libyan women, inspired by the wave of peaceful uprisings across Egypt and Tunisia, protested the arrests of their male relatives outside a prison in Benghazi. Their actions inspired a swathe of Libyan society – particularly the young – to spill out into the streets and demand an end to dictatorship. This brief draws particular attention to women’s experiences in Libya in the context of political and security developments in the past two years. It also highlights opportunities that the international community lost for sustaining and implementing the UN Security Council Resolution 1325 (2000) agenda on Women, Peace and Security.
Topic:
Women, Citizenship, Arab Spring, and Revolution
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

56. Arab Uprisings: The New Salafi Politics

Author:
William McCants, Christian Caryl, Olivier Roy, Aaron Y. Zelin, and Monica Marks
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Salafi, Spotlight, Syria, Tunisia POMEPS Studies 2 – Arab Uprisings: The New Salafi Politics The New Salafi Politics POMEPS Studies 2 – October 16, 2012 Few developments associated with the Arab uprisings have generated as much concern as the rapid emergence of Salafi movements into the public arena. The performance of al-Nour Party in Egypt’s parliamentary elections stunned many observers. Waves of attacks on Sufi shrines in Tunisia and Libya, denunciations of secular citizens, and loud calls for the imposition of sharia have raised fears at home and abroad. The violent protests over the anti-Islam YouTube film, the deadly attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, and the emergence of Salafi-jihadist trends within the Syrian opposition have made these political concerns ever more urgent. Who are these new Salafi movements? How should we interpret their rise? This new POMEPS Brief collects more than a dozen recent ForeignPolicy.com essays on Salafis across the Arab world, including a detailed look at Salafi politics in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, Bahrain, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. The picture that emerges is troubling — but also unexpectedly reassuring. These well-funded and well-entrenched sub cultures will likely continue to thrive in the open, contentious new Arab political realm. But how they will behave, the response they will generate from other political trends and societal sectors, and how they will approach political institutions remains very much in question.
Topic:
Salafism, Arab Spring, Syrian War, and Political Islam
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

57. What the Women Say: The End of the Beginning: Tunisia’s Revolution and Fighting for the Future

Author:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Abstract:
Tunisia marked the first anniversary of its largely peaceful revolution on January 14 2012. It has been a momentous year since spontaneous public uprisings involving women and men, old and young, rural and urban, led to the demise of a dictatorship. In October 2011, the first free and fair parliamentary elections in decades took place. But the story is not over. The economy is still in shambles and institutions of governance are weak. The security sector will need reform. There are also thorny issues of justice, truth-telling and reconciliation to deal with the past and move forward. Despite the opening of public and political space for activism and civil engagement, women are among the first groups to experience a backlash, largely orchestrated by conservative Islamic groups. The struggle for the identity, soul and future of Tunisia is just beginning. What happens to women now, how they are treated, and what role they play will be critical indications of the direction the country takes. ICAN’s first “What the Women Say” Tunisia brief addresses the evolving political landscape, the implications for women, their actions and their requests to international and domestic actors.
Topic:
Arab Spring, Revolution, and Political Movements
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

58. What the Women Say: Egypt’s Fitful Revolution: Women in the Balance

Author:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Abstract:
With Mohammad Morsi’s inauguration as President of Egypt in June 2012, many Egyptians hoped that the country’s fitful political transition would finally be on a smoother path towards institutional reform and democratization. But much remains in flux. From the outset of the revolution, Egyptian women from all sectors of society were central to the events. They were in the streets alongside men from the early days of the protests. They initiated their own protests. They have borne a large share of the violence dispensed primarily by state security forces, and are frequently the target of hostility and regressive measures introduced by some Islamists. Reflecting on the experiences of women in the uprising and transitional months, this brief provides a snapshot of developments in the past eighteen months including their security concerns, the constitutional process and evolving political landscape and its implication for women. It highlights key recommendations to international and domestic actors with regard to women’s rights, peace, and security.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Reform, Women, Arab Spring, Institutions, Revolution, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

59. Germany’s vote on Libya: no national interest involved; the use of military means questionable

Author:
Marcel Bouley
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Following the self-immolation of a Tunisian greengrocer, the Arab world and North Africa went through a public uprising. It resulted, among other things, in Tunisian President Ben Ali fleeing his country and the disposal of the regime in Egypt. Likewise, protests and rebellious forces emerged in Libya, soon with the aim of taking over of the country and overthrowing the Gaddafi regime. After a violent response from the Libyan forces, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 1970 on 26 February 2011. It demanded an immediate cessation of hostilities, imposed economic sanctions on Libya, established travel restrictions and ordered the freezing of the funds of the persons belonging to the ruling regime.
Topic:
United Nations, Sanctions, Military Affairs, Arab Spring, UN Security Council, and Muammar Gaddafi
Political Geography:
Europe, Libya, Germany, and North Africa

60. What the Women Say: The Arab Spring & Implications for Women

Author:
American Bar Association Standing Committee on Law and National Security
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN)
Abstract:
As the Arab world rumbles and shakes, women in the region are experiencing the good, the bad and the ugly that comes with instability, transition and crisis. From Tunisia and Egypt to Syria, Libya and Bahrain, women have been present and vocal in the street protest movements, standing shoulder to shoulder with the men, resisting the batons and tear gas, and being killed. While they made major gains in education and civil rights in the 1950s and 60s, Middle Eastern women were marginalized from politics and decision-making throughout recent decades. The current transition period does not bode well either. The political developments and status of women differ across countries. In the first of ICAN’s What theWomen Say; MENA Region briefs, we highlight common regional trends that threaten basic norms of democracy, equality and affect women’s abilities to participate in and influence the decision-making processes – nationally and internationally – that will determine the course of these countries’ futures and their lives.
Topic:
Women, Arab Spring, Protests, and Political Movements
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa