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42. Armed Conflicts and Security of Oil and Gas Supplies
- Author:
- Giacomo Luciani
- Publication Date:
- 06-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The paper offers a systematic analysis of the impact of international or civil wars and violent non-state groups on global oil and gas supplies. Statistical evidence points to the fact that international wars are becoming increasingly rare, while civil wars remain frequent. The paper discusses the cases of the Iraq-Iran war and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, showing the limits to the damage that belligerents were able to inflict on oil installations and illustrating how the world was able to compensate for this damage. The Iraqi insurgency following international intervention to replace the Saddam Hussein regime is discussed together with other cases of civil wars in Nigeria, Angola and Sudan. The analysis supports the conclusion that oil and gas installations appear to be much more resilient to armed conflict than is normally acknowledged. History shows that civil wars have caused limited damage to existing installations, but they have hindered the desired investment in new development and attainment of target production levels. However, it is very obvious that government's inability to overcome or reabsorb violent opposition discourages international oil company investment even if the violence does not affect the areas around oil and gas installations.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil War, Oil, Insurgency, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Kuwait and Nigeria
43. Ukrainian arms supplies to sub-Saharan Africa
- Author:
- Paul Holtom
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
- Abstract:
- Ukraine has consistently been among the 10 largest arms exporters in the world during the past two decades. An estimated 18 per cent of Ukrainian arms exports during 2005–2009 were for recipients in sub-Saharan Africa, specifically to Kenya (or Southern Sudan), Chad, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Ukraine has supplied surplus aircraft, tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery, SALW and ammunition to armed forces in sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, Ukrainian companies and individuals have supplied other services related to arms transfers and participated in combat missions for African armed forces.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, Ukraine, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, Guinea, and South Sudan
44. Breaking the Cycle of Electoral Violence in Nigeria
- Author:
- Ebere Onwudiwe and Chloe Berwind-Dart
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Nigeria's 2011 polls will mark the fourth multiparty election in Nigeria and, if a power transfer occurs, only the second handover of civilian administrations since the country's return to democracy in 1999. Past election cycles have featured political assassinations, voter intimidation, intra-and interparty clashes, and communal unrest. Party primary season, the days immediately surrounding elections, and the announcement of results have been among the most violent periods in previous cycles. Although the most recent elections in 2007 derived some benefit from local conflict management capacity, they were roundly criticized for being neither free nor fair. The 2011 elections could mark a turning point in the consolidation of Nigeria's democracy, but they could also provoke worsening ethnosectarian clashes and contribute to the continuing scourge of zero-sum politics. President Umaru Yar'Adua, who died in May 2010, kept his 2007 inauguration promise to create an Electoral Reform Committee (ERC) but failed to adopt key recommendations that the committee made. His successor, President Goodluck Jonathan, appointed a widely respected professor, Attahiru Jega, to head the Independent National Electoral Commission, inspiring hope that electoral processes will improve in 2011. The issue of “zoning,” the political elite's power-sharing agreement, has taken center stage in the current election cycle and will drive significant conflict if the debate around it devolves into outright hostilities. his unusual election cycle, local and international organizations and Electoral Management Bodies (EMBs) must redouble their efforts both to prevent and resolve conflicts and to promote conflict sensitivity. The near term requires an increasingly important role for the judiciary in combating electoral fraud, and the longer term requires the creation of the ERC–recommended Electoral Offenses Commission, which would specialize in the investigation and prosecution of crimes. Local agencies and respected community leaders must remain proactive and creative in violence-prevention programming, irrespective of international funding. Established local organizations with preexisting networks are best situated to perform early-warning and conflict management functions. High voter turnout and citizen monitoring are vital for ensuring that the 2011 elections in Nigeria are credible and civil.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
45. Nigeria 2007: Building Blocks for a Peaceful Transition Workshop Report
- Author:
- Dorina Bekoe
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Nigeria has had a grim history of electoral violence since its return to democratic rule in 1999, and with its next elections eight weeks away, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), in partnership with the West Africa Network for Peacebuilding - Nigeria (WANEP-Nigeria), held a workshop on the prevention of electoral violence. The workshop entitled, "Nigeria 2007: Building Blocks for a Peaceful Transition," took place in Abuja, Nigeria, from February 13 to February 15, 2007. Thirty-one participants from civil society organizations representing all six of Nigeria's geo-political zones attended the workshop.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil Society, and Democratization
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, and Nigeria
46. The Swamps of Insurgency: Nigeria's Delta Unrest
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- A potent cocktail of poverty, crime and corruption is fuelling a militant threat to Nigeria's reliability as a major oil producer. Since January 2006, fighters from a new group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), have fought with government forces, sabotaged oil installations, taken foreign oil workers hostage and carried out two lethal car bombings. MEND demands the government withdraw troops, release imprisoned ethnic leaders and grant oil revenue concessions to Delta groups. The Nigerian government needs to forge far-reaching reforms to administration and its approach to revenue sharing, the oil companies to involve credible, community-based organisations in their development efforts and Western governments to pay immediate attention to improving their own development aid.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
47. Oiling the Friction: Environmental Conflict Management in the Niger Delta, Nigeria
- Author:
- Okechukwu Ibeanu
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Wilson Center
- Abstract:
- The Niger Delta, a sensitive ecosystem rich in biodiversity, has witnessed considerable violence as a result of the tense relationship among oil companies, the Nigerian state, and oil-bearing communities. Environmental damage from the extraction and movement of fossil fuels is a central point of dispute among the parties while the precise extent of ecological damage remains unknown. Drawing on numerous interviews while living and working in the Niger Delta, Dr. Okechukwu Ibeanu analyzes the management of conflicts surrounding petroleum production in the region, including the role of state violence and contradictory perceptions of security held by Delta communities and the oil companies and their partners in the Nigerian federal government.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Environment, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Nigeria