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21. Armed Conflicts and Security of Oil and Gas Supplies

Author:
Giacomo Luciani
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The paper offers a systematic analysis of the impact of international or civil wars and violent non-state groups on global oil and gas supplies. Statistical evidence points to the fact that international wars are becoming increasingly rare, while civil wars remain frequent. The paper discusses the cases of the Iraq-Iran war and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, showing the limits to the damage that belligerents were able to inflict on oil installations and illustrating how the world was able to compensate for this damage. The Iraqi insurgency following international intervention to replace the Saddam Hussein regime is discussed together with other cases of civil wars in Nigeria, Angola and Sudan. The analysis supports the conclusion that oil and gas installations appear to be much more resilient to armed conflict than is normally acknowledged. History shows that civil wars have caused limited damage to existing installations, but they have hindered the desired investment in new development and attainment of target production levels. However, it is very obvious that government's inability to overcome or reabsorb violent opposition discourages international oil company investment even if the violence does not affect the areas around oil and gas installations.
Topic:
Security, Civil War, Oil, Insurgency, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Kuwait and Nigeria

22. Revisiting the Resource–Conflict Link: A Systematic Comparative Test of Causal Mechanisms in Four Major Oil-Exporting Countries

Author:
Miriam Shabafrouz, Matthias Basedau, and Annegret Mähler
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Causal mechanisms and related contextual variables are crucial to the study of the resource–conflict link, but little systematic research has been done on their exact functioning. This paper contributes to the filling of this gap by comparing four major oil exporters (Algeria, Iran, Nigeria, and Venezuela) with differing levels of internal violence. To capture the causal complexity of the resource–conflict link we created a questionnaire with some 150 variables that distinguish between resource-specific (RS) and non-resource specific (NRS) conditions. The causal mechanisms are measured by assigning pertinent RS and NRS indicators to them. Our results suggest that the role of resources may be less prominent than is widely assumed. Only three resource-related causal mechanisms provide limited explanatory value (motive at subnational level, indirect economic, and institutional mechanism) by distinguishing Venezuela—the most peaceful case—from all the others. Only a mixed mechanism that combines 13 RS and NRS (economic and geographic characteristics, identity, intergroup relations, as well as political and institutional variables, including elite behavior) conditions can explain the differences between the countries with regard to the dependent variable comprehensively.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Diplomacy, and Oil
Political Geography:
Iran, Algeria, and Nigeria

23. Oil Resources, Militancy, and the Post-Amnesty Challenges in the Niger Delta, Nigeria

Author:
J. Tochukwu Omenma
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Security Sector Management
Institution:
Centre for Security Sector Management
Abstract:
This paper argues that the exclusionary system of the indigenous people of the Niger Delta from the production and the distribution of oil resources is a factor that drives the militancy in the Niger Delta. The conceptual background to this argument is based on the analysis of the unmet demands of the Niger Delta people, which is cashed in on by the politicians and the youths to disrupt social order. The amnesty programme, as implemented by the government, is considered palliative if placed side by side with the critical demands of the oil communities. This paper identifies some technical problems of the post amnesty programme, which constitute a challenge to sustainable peace. However, the author concludes that the main sources of threat to the fragile peace in the region are the non-involvement of the oil communities in the rehabilitation process; the revenue derivation percent; and the rebellious character of Henry Oka's faction of MEND. To mitigate conflict in the long run depends on the capacity of President Jonathan Goodluck to mobilize material and human resources to improve on the lives of the Niger Delta people.
Topic:
Oil
Political Geography:
Nigeria

24. A Conversation with Henry Odein Ajumogobia

Author:
Henry Odein Ajumogobia
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Speaker: Henry Odein Ajumogobia, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Federal Republic of Nigeria Presider: Princeton N. Lyman, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, Former U.S. Ambassador to the Federal Republic of Nigeria August 4, 2010 Guest Event: A Conversation with Henry Odein Ajumogobia Nigerian foreign minister Henry Odein Ajumogobia discusses the challenges and prospects of Nigeria at fifty and the strengthening of Nigeria's bilateral partnership with the United States.
Topic:
Oil and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Nigeria

25. Issues In Fiscal Policy Management Under The Economic Reforms

Author:
Bright Okogu
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
Oil-dependent economies face two interrelated challenges in the management of oil resources: in the short run, there is the need to create a stable macroeconomic environment by delinking oil revenue earnings from public expenditures, while in the long run it is necessary to maintain a sustainable use of resources that ensures intergenerational equity. In most of the past three decades, Nigeria's management of oil resources was poor. The Nigerian economy has experienced significant macroeconomic volatility, driven largely by external terms-of-trade shocks, the country's large reliance on oil export earnings and poor policy choices in the management of oil revenues. By some measures, Nigeria ranked among the most volatile economies in the world for the period 19602000. Moreover, contrary to the received wisdom of increasing financial assets as a means of saving oil revenues, Nigeria had accrued significant domestic and foreign liabilities.
Topic:
Oil, Reform, Economy, Macroeconomics, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

26. Blood Oil in the Niger Delta

Author:
Judith Burdin Asuni
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The trade in stolen oil, or “blood oil,” poses an immense challenge to the Nigerian state, harming its economy and fueling a long-running insurgency in the Niger Delta. It also undermines security in the Gulf of Guinea and adds to instability on world energy markets. The exact amount of oil stolen per day in the Niger Delta is unknown, but it is somewhere between 30,000 and 300,000 barrels. The loss to the Nigerian economy from illegal oil bunkering between 2003 and 2008 totals approximately US$100 billion. It is time for the international community to become more proactive in helping Nigeria address this complex issue. Efforts to control blood oil must be accompanied by actions against corruption, illegal arms importation, and money laundering. The enabling environment for illegal oil bunkering includes high levels of unemployed youth, armed ethnic militias, ineffective and corrupt law enforcement officials, protective government officials and politicians, corrupt oil company staff, established international markets for stolen oil, and the overall context of endemic corruption. The three types of illegal oil bunkering include small-scale pilfering for the local market, large-scale tapping of pipelines to fill large tankers for export, and excess lifting of crude oil beyond the licensed amount. The complexity of players in the illegal oil bunkering business, including local youth, members of the Nigerian military and political class, and foreign ship owners, makes it difficult to tackle the problem unilaterally. Previous attempts by the Nigerian government and international community to address illegal oil bunkering have had limited success in reducing the flow of blood oil. The problem of blood oil needs to be addressed multilaterally. Within the international community, the United States is uniquely positioned to take a leadership role in helping to dry up blood oil and address other issues in the Niger Delta.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Markets, Oil, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Nigeria, and Guinea

27. Crisis in the Niger Delta

Author:
David R. Smock
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The demands of the population in the Niger Delta to enjoy greater benefit from the oil produced in their region continue to go unanswered. The people in the Delta complain that oil-spill pollution has made their water undrinkable, gas flaring has made the air unfit for breathing, while revenue from the oil has paid for mansions to be built in the capital, Abuja. Although well armed militias have suspended their attacks for a few weeks, they threaten to resume operations soon. A Technical Committee appointed by Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Aduato make recommendations for action relating to the Delta made its report nine months ago, but the government has taken no action on the report. The government has offered an amnesty to the militants for a period that expires in early October, but so far few militants have responded. Oil production continues to be seriously reduced by the militants' attacks and by the stealing of oil (termed “bunkering”) by militants and others.
Topic:
Political Violence and Oil
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

28. Should Nigeria Establish A Sovereign Wealth Fund?

Author:
Menachem Katz and Cijeyu Ojong
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
This paper explores the issues relating to the establishment of a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) in Nigeria consistent with best practices. Experience with established SWFs suggests that successful oil- based funds tend to be underpinned by a sound oil revenue management framework. The paper thus discusses the underlying issues of oil revenue management, the policy choices and SWF implementation issues.
Topic:
Economics, Oil, Sovereign Wealth Funds, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

29. Bringing Peace to the Niger Delta

Author:
Kelly Campbell
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The conflict in the Niger Delta has posed a fundamental domestic challenge to Nigerian security for more than a decade. Despite pledges to address continued instability in the Delta, the administration of Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua has not yet initiated a process to resolve the political, economic and security problems in the region. Oil production continues to diminish as a result of militant attacks, and is currently 20 to 25 percent below capacity. Meanwhile, militia members in the Niger Delta continue to engage in criminal activities such as kidnapping and oil bunkering1 to maximize profits for themselves and their political patrons.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Oil
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

30. Nigeria: Ogoni Land after Shell

Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Nigerian government's 4 June 2008 decision to replace the Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) as operator of oil concessions in Ogoni areas offers an opportunity for ending one of the longest-running conflicts between a multinational oil company and a local community in the Niger Delta. But to ensure that new friction does not develop between the Ogoni and Shell's successor company, it must be followed by a comprehensive program of consultations with local populations to address the remaining issues involved in oil production in this area, including environmental protection and distribution of revenues.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, and Oil
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria