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1. Myanmar: Momentum from Operation 1027 Threatens Military Rule

Author:
Christian Jaffe and Christina De Paris
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Since launching Operation 1027 on 27 October 2023, the Brotherhood Alliance, alongside anti-coup forces, has made some of the most significant territorial gains since the 2021 coup, seizing military and police positions in Chin, Rakhine, northern Shan, and Mandalay. Failing to suppress Brotherhood gains, the military has turned to indiscriminate airstrikes and artillery shelling on civilians. Nonetheless, Operation 1027 has given momentum to other armed groups across the country, representing the most significant threat to the military junta since the 1 February 2021 coup.
Topic:
Coup, Armed Conflict, and Infographic
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

2. Restoring Democracy in Myanmar: A Call for Bolstered Anti-Junta Resistance Forces

Author:
Lin Htet Myat
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
February 2023 marks the second anniversary of the military coup in Myanmar that ousted its civilian government and cracked down on democratic protests. Lin Htet Myat, a political analyst from Myanmar, assesses the grim situation in the country and offers new approaches that both the international community and the Burmese anti-junta forces should take to facilitate the restoration of democracy. The author argues that the international community must not engage the junta to seek for a peaceful resolution, and instead strengthen material support and communication with anti-junta forces within Myanmar. Meanwhile, Burmese democratic resistance forces should bolster military cooperation among like-minded groups and build trust in preparation for a federal democratic Myanmar.
Topic:
Democracy, Coup, Humanitarian Crisis, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
Asia and Myanmar

3. China’s Collaboration with the Myanmar Junta: A Case of Strategic Hedging?

Author:
Sudhan Rmachandran
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On June 27, in Kachin State, northern Myanmar, a convoy of vehicles carrying a Chinese delegation, including a consul, came under fire. The convoy was being guarded by Myanmar military and police personnel. While local media blamed the Lisu National Development Party, a military-aligned militia, the Myanmar junta held the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) — an ethnic armed organization (EAO) aligned with the anti-junta resistance— responsible for the attack (The Irrawaddy, June 30). Attacks on Chinese targets have grown in recent months in Myanmar. On May 7, the anti-junta Natogyi Guerrilla Force (NGF) attacked an off-take station in the Mandalay Region’s Natogyi Township due to its China-affiliated oil and gas pipeline. The attack came amid a surge in mass protests on the streets of Yangon, and the townships of Yinmabin, Salingyi and Letpadaung in Sagaing Region. Angry online campaigns criticizing Beijing’s support of “fascist criminals” — referring to the Myanmar generals — gained widespread public backing (Economic Times, May 15). On May 2, the surge in anti-China protests and violence came close on the heels of a meeting in Naypyidaw between Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Myanmar junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. Qin is the highest Chinese official to meet Min Aung Hlaing since the 2021 military coup, which overthrew the elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government (Frontier Myanmar, May 3). Since the junta’s rise to power, public ire in Myanmar has been directed not only at the military regime but also at China, the junta’s principal foreign backer. In the early days of the coup, crowds gathered outside the Chinese embassy in Yangon to protest against the alleged Chinese role in the insurrection (Times of India, February 14, 2021). Chinese-owned factories in Myanmar were damaged and burned, and Chinese workers were attacked (CGTN, March 14, 2021). With visible collaboration between the PRC and the junta growing, the targeting of Chinese projects and properties in Myanmar has grown in frequency and intensity. To cite one such instance, last April resistance groups fired missiles at factories manufacturing long-range rockets and surface-to-air missiles, specifically when Chinese and Russian military officials were visiting the facilities (Burma News International, April 8). As anti-China sentiment surges in Myanmar, it is likely that resistance groups will continue to deliberately target Chinese interests in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Coup, Strategic Interests, and Junta
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Myanmar

4. A Silent Sangha? Buddhist Monks in Post-coup Myanmar

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Sangha, Myanmar’s Buddhist monastic community, has largely stayed out of politics since the 2021 coup. As youth take the vanguard of resistance, a long-term shift in the country’s civic life – and a conservative backlash – could be in the offing. The issue bears close watching.
Topic:
Religion, Coup, and Buddhism
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

5. ASEAN’s Response to the Myanmar Military Coup: From Non-Intervention to Responsibility to Protect

Author:
Ali Muhammad and Ahmad Sahide
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
This article examines how ASEAN has reacted to the military coup in Myanmar. The February 1, 2021 coup was appalling because Myanmar was progressing toward democracy especially since Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory in the 2015 general election. This article shows that although ASEAN tries to adopt ‘constructive engagement’ towards Myanmar, its approaches remain ineffective because it basically still maintains the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of its member states. ASEAN must recognize that regional stability depends on respect for democracy, human rights, and rule of law within each member states. This article argues that ASEAN needs to transform its ineffective approaches toward more active response by gradually internalizing the new concept of ‘Responsibility to Protect’ (R2P) and actively put pressures on the military to restore democracy in the country.
Topic:
Coup, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), ASEAN, Non-Intervention, and Military
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

6. Myanmar’s Coup Shakes Up Its Ethnic Conflicts

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The numerous ethnic armed groups fighting Myanmar’s regime have taken different tacks after the 2021 coup. Some are aiding the parallel government; others are not. With civil strife set to continue for some time, donors should concentrate on mitigating war’s effects on the population.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Ethnicity, Discrimination, and Coup
Political Geography:
Asia and Myanmar

7. Myanmar - China´s west coast dream

Author:
John Nielsen
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Myanmar is blessed as well as cursed by its geography. Sandwiched between Asia’s heavyweights, China and India, it is potentially in a favorable position for trade and economic relations with both countries. However, trade and economic relations are secondary to China’s geopolitical and security interests in Myanmar. China´s main objective in Myanmar is to gain access to the Indian Ocean through Myanmar and gain control over a dual-use deep-sea port in Kyauk Phyu on Myanmar´s west coast. Another priority for China involves managing the stability of the two countries´ 2,000 km shared border. The porous border region has for decades played host to armed conflicts and is also the center of a billion- dollar drugs production and trafficking network. China regards Myanmar as forming part of its neighborhood, an extension of its national interests, and is extremely sensitive to any western engagement along its borders.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Geopolitics, Coup, Strategic Interests, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Southeast Asia, Myanmar, and Indian Ocean

8. One Year after the Myanmar Coup

Author:
Esther Ze Bamvo, James C. Scott, David Thang Moe, and Lien-Hang T. Nguyen
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Myanmar has been a military country since 1962, but the recent military coup deserves international attention. Since the junta seized power by removing the democratically elected government on February 1, 2021, citizens from all walks of life have risen up in strong resistance to the coup. Religion and ethnicity have played a dividing and exclusionary role in Burmese politics, resulting most tragically in the persecution of the Rohingya. However, the urgent need for solidarity of an anti-coup movement led by youth from “Generation Z” has brought together protesters from different religions and ethnicities. Urban civilians, mostly from ethnic majorities, and ethnic minorities from small towns and the most remote hill villages have bridged their religious and ethnic divides to resist the coup for the common goal of federal democracy. Within one year, military junta has killed almost 1,500, detained almost 12,000, and has displaced millions of civilians. Despite the risks, civilians continue to resist the new order through various everyday and creative forms of movement. This event, marking the anniversary of the coup, will recognize Myanmar’s democratic movement, remember fallen heroes, and reflect on the origins and ongoing movements of interreligious and interethnic resistance to the coup. Three panelists, including a person who co-led the first largest anti-coup protest movement on the frontline, will share their expertise on the origins, stories, strategies, and challenges of resistance to the coup. They will also suggest ways that the international community can support Myanmar’s ongoing democratic movement. This event is sponsored by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and cosponsored by the New York Southeast Asia Network (NYSEAN).
Topic:
Democracy, Protests, Coup, Resistance, and Military
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

9. Chinese Mining Companies and Local Mobilization in Myanmar

Author:
Xue Gong
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since the 2010s, China has invested enormous amounts of capital in major infrastructure construction projects in developing countries around the world, including in Southeast Asia. Many argue that China aims to export its development model to the world, but Chinese actors have also at times sought to address project concerns at least to some degree. The question is this: how are Chinese business actors adapting to the local contexts, legal and regulatory requirements, technical standards, and community norms in the places where they operate? To answer that question, it is important to focus on the interactive dynamics between Chinese players and local civic actors (such as local nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), faith-based organizations, community groups, government-owned NGOs, activists, associations, and other networks in exile) in Myanmar that can collectively be termed local societal actors. By tracing Chinese local engagement activities involving a major Chinese-backed resource-extraction project, the Letpadaung copper mine, this paper argues that the past few decades of China’s deep embeddedness and interests in Myanmar’s political economy forced Chinese businesses to adapt to Myanmarese societal demands, by way of a local community-based approach. Beijing knows that projects supported by Myanmar’s government today might not have the same traction tomorrow. Therefore, when pressure has built, Chinese actors have paid greater heed to demands from local residents in projects’ host countries, even at times integrating these demands to adjust existing Chinese strategies, choices, and behaviors. That said, these concessions have not caused these disputes to entirely disappear, and the staying power of these Chinese adaptations is open to question, particularly amid the political upheaval Myanmar has weathered since the 2021 coup. A key variable in these changes is the power of the local societal actors: when they are strong and supported by local institutions, Chinese business actors often are more adaptive to local demands and take greater steps, including with local partners, to win support from local societal actors. Because the interactions between local institutions and local societal actors vary by place and time, Chinese responses to local actors and practices also do vary in different periods. In sum, it is clear that Chinese actors are making progress at the local level by showing their adaptability not just in terms of the Letpadaung copper mine case but also on other shared development projects in Myanmar. Nonetheless, Chinese actors’ approach to local community engagement is subject to the local context and specifically to what extent local institutions have the capacity and will to support local societal demands.
Topic:
Civil Society, Infrastructure, Institutions, Coup, and Mining
Political Geography:
China, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

10. The View of the Coup from the Camp: Myanmar’s Emergent Trans-Ethnic Solidarity

Author:
Elliott Prasse-Freeman and Tani Sebro
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Myanmar’s recent military coup has, for now, ended the country’s brief ten-year experiment with democracy. But the military junta did not anticipate a massive country-wide social movement against the brazen power-grab, in which millions have taken to the streets. As protests continue in urban centers, a trans-ethnic and pro-poor solidarity movement is emerging. Myanmar’s most excluded subjects, many of whom watch the protests from refugee camps, are now weighing both the possibilities and precariousness that the coup entails.
Topic:
Civil Society, Migration, Minorities, Displacement, Conflict, and Coup
Political Geography:
Asia, Myanmar, and Oceania