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1. Intermediary models to advance locally led humanitarian action

Author:
Alejandro Posada, Alice Obrecht, Courtenay Cabot Venton, Sarah Selby, and Edith Macharia
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:
This paper summarises the most promising models for intermediary structures that support locally led action in humanitarian settings. This includes locally led intermediary structures (both LNAs acting as intermediaries and locally owned/ managed pooled funds) and reformed international intermediary structures that are most conducive to locally led action. The examples provided in this paper were identified through three short country case studies undertaken by ALNAP (focused on Sudan, the Philippines and Myanmar) and existing research on local and international intermediaries by the Share Trust. This paper aims to focus on examples that are not well known or have been underrepresented in existing studies, and are therefore illustrative rather than exhaustive. A separate annex provides a more detailed account of local intermediary examples identified in this study, including their models, challenges, scope and the opportunities they present. Further useful examples could be identified in a more thorough review.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, Reform, and Localization
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Asia, Philippines, and Myanmar

2. Hedging bets: Southeast Asia’s approach to China’s aid

Author:
Alexandre Dayant and Grace Stanhope
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Southeast Asian states with acute development needs and constrained access to development financing — Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar — are the most reliant on China. By contrast, lower-middle income countries with more diversified foreign relations — the Philippines and Vietnam — have become far more restrained in accepting Chinese largesse over the last decade. Upper-middle income countries with only moderate development needs — Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand — appear to be playing the field of development partners the most opportunistically and politically. Amid weakening demand for Chinese development financing in Southeast Asia, Beijing is recalibrating its offering, transitioning to fewer, smaller, and more targeted projects. In 2022, China implemented $3 billion in development financing in the region, a sharp drop from more than $9 billion in 2015. However, Southeast Asia’s success in reshaping their development ties with China could be undone if Western cuts to development budgets lead to a drastic reduction in financing to the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
China, Vietnam, Philippines, Cambodia, Southeast Asia, Laos, and Myanmar

3. What Could Changing Conflict Dynamics Mean for the Risk of Mass Atrocities in Burma

Author:
Andrea Gittleman and Denise-Nicole Stone
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
In March 2024, the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum’s Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide hosted a private roundtable discussion on potential conflict scenarios in Burma/Myanmar. The discussion explored plausible trajectories of the conflict over the next six months, and whether these paths may lead to increased risk of mass atrocities for civilians. The convening included researchers, policymakers, and civil society representatives and discussed the following questions: • What are the plausible scenarios in which the conflict could evolve in the coming six months? • What would these changes mean in terms of the mass atrocity risks to civilian populations? • Are there specific regions/areas in Burma where civilians may be at especially high risk? • What particular developments should policymakers monitor? • What potential resiliencies exist to mitigate growing or changing mass atrocity risks, and what strategies should US policymakers use to support them? • What are the policy options available to US policymakers? The discussion took place under the Chatham House rule. This report summarizes key topics from the conversation without attribution.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Atrocities, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Burma, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

4. Myanmar: Momentum from Operation 1027 Threatens Military Rule

Author:
Christian Jaffe and Christina De Paris
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Since launching Operation 1027 on 27 October 2023, the Brotherhood Alliance, alongside anti-coup forces, has made some of the most significant territorial gains since the 2021 coup, seizing military and police positions in Chin, Rakhine, northern Shan, and Mandalay. Failing to suppress Brotherhood gains, the military has turned to indiscriminate airstrikes and artillery shelling on civilians. Nonetheless, Operation 1027 has given momentum to other armed groups across the country, representing the most significant threat to the military junta since the 1 February 2021 coup.
Topic:
Coup, Armed Conflict, and Infographic
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

5. Violent Escalations in Myanmar’s Rakhine State | ACLED Insight

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
In Myanmar, territorial gains made by resistance groups have often led to indiscriminate airstrikes by the military junta. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for calm in Rakhine state on 19 March 2024, and ACLED data show just how widespread the phenomenon has become. From 1 November 2023 until 8 March, the military carried out 588 airstrikes across Myanmar, of which 19% were against targets in Rakhine state. Of all strikes recorded in Rakhine so far, 34% have targeted civilians. In Rakhine, military airstrikes started around November 2023 after fighting broke out between the military and the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA) as a part of Operation 1027, launched by the Brotherhood Alliance in October 2023.
Topic:
Civilians, Armed Conflict, Junta, and Airstrikes
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia, Myanmar, and Rakhine

6. Transitional justice and women’s representation in peacebuilding: Myanmar and the case for Feminist Foreign Policy

Author:
Nang Moet Moet and Clara Bradley
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:
February 2024 marks three years since the start of the military coup which ignited Myanmar’s Spring Revolution. For the first time in the nation’s history, women have been at the forefront of the resistance, making up over 60 percent of the resistance movement.i The unprecedented number of women in the movement signals women’s refusal to live under patriarchal military rule. The modest yet critical gains made towards gender equality during the democratic period enabled a generation of women to see the value of their participation in broader functions of society. Reverting back to military rule would not just hinder progress on gender equality, it threatens the hardwon fundamental rights of women and girls. In a country shaped by decades of militarization, this war, like those before it, has compounded women’s experience of patriarchal violence. As Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAO) and the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) inch closer to defeating the Myanmar military (herein referred to as the ‘junta’), attention is turning to post-coup peace and nation building processes. At this important juncture in Myanmar’s political history, women are demanding adequate representation and genuine participation in peacebuilding processes, including transitional justice initiatives that adequately address violence against women in conflict. Over the decades of political instability, women have been repeatedly told that a democratic union must come before gender equality.ii The de-prioritisation of women’s participation in public life is embodied in the Constitution 2008, which clearly proscribes that ‘nothing in this section shall prevent appointment of men to positions that are naturally suitable for men only.’iii This subjugation of women’s rights to political stability is mirrored in traditional foreign policy approaches that prioritise the security of the nation state, rather than the security of the individuals within that state. A feminist foreign policy approach inverts the traditional hierarchy, understanding that security is not possible absent the conditions required for all people to flourish. Without addressing the structural roots of pervasive violence that has oppressed both women and ethnic minorities in Myanmar society for decades, there can be no durable peace. Countries that have adopted a feminist foreign policy – or those with a values-based foreign policy such as Australia – must invest in, and advocate for, the inclusion of women from all ethnic groups in future peace and transitional justice processes.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Women, Transitional Justice, Feminism, and Representation
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

7. Outrage is not a policy: Coming to terms with Myanmar’s fragmented state

Author:
Morten B. Pedersen
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
This paper analyses the evolution of Myanmar’s civil war with a view to identifying optimal international policy responses. The sharp escalation of armed resistance since late 2023 holds out the tantalising prospect that the once seemingly invincible military regime could be defeated. Yet it remains an open question whether anti-junta forces will be able to carry the momentum from their recent victories in the forest-covered, mountainous borderlands across the open plains of central Myanmar to take the capital or other major cities. Even if resistance forces ultimately emerge victorious, the goal of building a genuine federal democracy will likely take years of highly complex and politically fraught negotiations. While the outcome of the civil war remains uncertain, new resistance groups have started building state-like structures and delivering public services in “liberated areas”, much like the older ethnic armed organisations have been doing since the 1960s. The longer Myanmar remains mired in warfare, the more crucial these plural governance systems will become to the welfare of millions of people, with lasting implications for the nature of state-building in the country. To more effectively support the Myanmar people, Western governments and likeminded actors will need to come to terms with the reality of an increasingly — and quite possibly, permanently — fragmented state. The paper thus calls for greater investments in “parallel state-building”, focused on strengthening the collective capabilities of a wide range of emerging political authorities and community-based organisations to carry out traditional state functions and serve vulnerable populations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civil War, Development, and Governance
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

8. Statelessness Before the ICJ: The Gambia v Myanmar

Author:
Jade Roberts
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:
Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:
The ongoing proceedings in Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (The Gambia v Myanmar)1have been recognised as significant for a number of reasons.2First, the proceedings concern genocide, which isregarded as the most heinous of crimes,3and due to issues of jurisdictional limitations in parallel proceedings in the International Criminal Court (‘ICC’),4theInternational Court of Justice (‘ICJ’ or ‘the Court’) may be the only international court capable of determining whether genocide has occurred.
Topic:
Genocide, International Court of Justice (ICJ), Rohingya, and Statelessness
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia, Myanmar, and Gambia

9. Blue Economy in Myanmar

Author:
Zaw Oo and Ngu Wah Win
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Myanmar’s commitment to the Blue Economy is driven by the Sustainable Development Goals, and it has developed a long-term plan to guide its efforts in reaching these goals. Myanmar’s vision of a Blue Economy involves various sectors, such as fisheries, tourism, and energy. However, the sustainable development of these sectors is facing many challenges, such as conflicts in coastal townships and the departure of foreign businesses. Myanmar must actively seek international cooperation with neighbouring countries and organisations such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to form a stronger framework for sustainable use of ocean resources; invest in research, data collection, and capacity building; and strengthen the governance of Marine Protected Areas.
Topic:
Environment, ASEAN, Blue Economy, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Asia, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

10. R2P Monitor, Issue 68, 1 March 2024

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 68 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Cameroon, Central African Republic, South Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, North Korea, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, Central African Republic, and Global Focus