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81. Radical Islam in the North Caucasus

Author:
Sergey Markedonov
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
As Kyrgyzstan plunges into crisis and the threat of a second Afghanistan in Central Asia looms large, the situation in the "Big Caucasus" seems less pressing and thus overshadowed. The worst scenarios predicted by analysts and politicians for the period of the 2008 August war have not been realized. The Russian attempt to "replace the regime" of Mikhail Saakashvili or apply the Georgian pattern in Ukraine, expected by many in the West, has not taken place. Neither have the attempts from the West (the United States, NATO, and others) to "nudge Georgia into a rematch," which were expected in Moscow. Nonetheless, the Caucasus region remains one of the most vulnerable spaces in Eurasia. In the Caucasus, the first precedent of a revision of borders between the former Soviet republics was established. For the first time in Eurasia, and particularly in the Caucasus, partially recognized states have emerged. While their independence is denied by the United Nations, it is recognized by the Russian Federation, a permanent member of the UN Security Council. After the "hot August" of 2008, Moscow demonstrated its willingness to play the role of a revisionist state for the first time since 1991. Russia defines the "Big Caucasus" as the sphere of its vital interests and priorities and consequently pretends to be a key stakeholder for the whole region.
Topic:
NATO, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Central Asia, Eurasia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Moscow, and United Nations

82. Russia's modernization reloaded: Political constraints on economic development

Author:
Katri Pynnöniemi
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Rumour has it that prior to his first visit to Beijing in spring 2008, President Medvedev instructed officials at the Ministry of Trade and Development to take a picture of Moscow that would aptly convey Russia's drive for modernization and innovation to his Chinese hosts. In carrying out his orders, employees from the ministry spent two months looking for a suitable place to photograph, but it is not known whether they were successful in their quest or not. Perhaps the story is only apocryphal, and no such order was ever given. Nevertheless, the anecdote has sown the seeds of doubt in the minds of the country's current leadership that there is actually not that much to see when it comes to the campaign for the 'technological modernization' of Russia.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, Markets, Political Economy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Moscow

83. The Moscow metro bombings and terrorism in Russia

Author:
Andrew Monaghan
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
The terrorist attacks in Moscow on 29 March that killed 40 and injured over 100, and the subsequent attacks in Dagestan and Ingushetia highlight a serious problem in Russia. The Russian authorities, led by President Medvedev, quickly responded by promising the swift pursuit and the destruction of the terrorists, the review and improvement of anti-terrorism procedures and enhancement of social and economic measures to address the causes of terrorism in the North Caucasus. Two criminal cases were opened with the charges of terrorism, and an operational and investigation group established, initially comprised of 30 people drawn from the Investigative Committee of the General Procurators Office (SK) and Federal Security Service (FSB). Moscow also linked the attacks to the international context, noting both the international training and preparation of the terrorists and thus the need for international cooperation to address the issue.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Terrorism, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Russia, Moscow, and North Caucasus

84. "There has never been an unbiased Russian mediation in South Caucasian conflicts"

Author:
Martin Malek
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Institution:
The Caucasian Review of International Affairs
Abstract:
Last year Armenia and Azerbaijan held talks and ended up signing the Moscow Declaration - the first joint document since the beginning of a cease-fire in 1994. What do you think are the prospects for a peace process tackling the conflict over Nagorno- Karabakh? Will the news concerning the new Russian military deliveries to Armenia amounting to $800 million negatively affect Russia's mediation?
Political Geography:
Russia, Moscow, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

85. Controversies over missile defense in Europe

Author:
Raimo Väyrynen
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The plan to deploy an anti-missile system in Central Europe has been one of the most controversial security policy issues in the past few years. The Bush Administration pushed hard for the deployment of the radar site in the Czech Republic and interceptor missiles in Poland, largely because it would provide an additional layer in the global anti-ballistic missile defense of the United States. In both of these countries, public opinion has been against the deployments and the governments have had to negotiate between external and internal pressures pushing them in different policy directions. Russia has been adamantly opposed to the missile defense plan, issuing both threats and suggesting alternative ways to diminish the threat that the United States feels from Iran. The result has been a political stalemate that has further complicated otherwise tense relations between Moscow and Washington, D.C. With the arrival of the Obama Administration, there is a pause in the missile dispute, but no permanent resolution of the conflict is in sight.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, Washington, Poland, Moscow, and Czech Republic

86. After the 2008 Russia-Georgia War: Implications for the Wider Caucasus and Prospects for Western Involvement in Conflict Resolution

Author:
Nona Mikhelidze
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Following the war between Georgia and Russia in August 2008 and the ensuing Russian recognition of independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the Caucasus has risen again on the Euro-Atlantic security agenda. First, the war highlighted that the “frozen” nature of the South Caucasus conflicts was a chimera, even if the war may have entrenched further the frozen nature of peace processes in the region. Second, the crisis generated new sources of instability for the entire post-Soviet space, not only because it highlighted a new form of Russian revisionism but also because it brought to the fore the limits of Western policies in what Kremlin views as its sphere of influence. The war brought to the forefront the colliding foreign policy agendas of the major external actors in the region. Not only in the run-up to the war, but also in the months and years preceding it, the American and European responses to Russia have been firm in rhetoric but compromising in reality. Russia made it clear that it has it own claims over the South Caucasus, it demonstrated its readiness to embark on military confrontation in order to achieve its goals, and through the war it wished to make crystal clear to the international community that Moscow is the only game in town. Third and related, the war exposed the inability of the West to prevent Russia from moving aggressively to restore its primacy over the former Soviet Union's territory. Thus the August war posed new implications and challenges not only for Georgia, but also for the wider Caucasus and beyond. This new context has induced the West to react and redefine its strategy towards the region and its relations with Russia, it has raised the urgency to engage in conflict resolution issues, and it has highlighted further the need for energy diversification.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and War
Political Geography:
Russia, America, Europe, Moscow, and Abkhazia

87. Georgia-Russia: Still Insecure and Dangerous

Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Ten months after the “August war” between Georgia and Russia, violent incidents and the lack of an effective security regime in and around the conflict zones of South Ossetia and Abkhazia create a dangerous atmosphere in which extensive fighting could again erupt. Russia has not complied with key aspects of the cease-fire agreements that President Medvedev reached in August/September 2008 with French President Sarkozy in his then EU presidency role. Its 15 June Security Council veto of an extension of the sixteen-year-old UN observer mission mandate in Georgia and Abkhazia and its apparent intention to require the removal of the mission of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) by the end of the month are blows to regional security that will further fuel tensions. Most of the on-the-ground conflict resolution machinery is thus being dismantled. Moscow should review its counterproductive position and work for a reasonable compromise allowing the UN and OSCE monitors to continue their important work.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and War
Political Geography:
Russia, Eastern Europe, Moscow, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia

88. Repairing US-Russian Relations: A Long Road Ahead

Author:
Eugene B. Rumer and Angela E. Stent
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
At the end of the Bush administration, relations between the United States and Russia had reached their lowest point since the Cold War. The promise of a new direction in U.S.-Russian relations since President Barak Obama's London meeting with President Dmitry Medvedev has led to expectations on both sides of the Atlantic that bilateral ties will improve substantially. Such a change would be highly desirable, for it would enhance the odds of success for many U.S. initiatives from the Middle East and Southwest Asia to the Far East and the Pacific. But that improvement will not come easily or quickly. It took years to reach the current nadir in the relationship between Washington and Moscow, and there are still questions remaining on their diverging values and competing interests that have to be resolved.
Topic:
Cold War, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Washington, Middle East, Asia, and Moscow

89. The Myth of a No-NATO-Enlargement Pledge to Russia

Author:
Mark Kramer
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Washington Quarterly
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In the latter half of the 1990s, as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was preparing to expand its membership for the first time since the admission of Spain in 1982, Russian officials claimed that the entry of former Warsaw Pact countries into NATO would violate a solemn ''pledge'' made by the governments of West Germany and the United States in 1990 not to bring any former Communist states into the alliance. Anatolii Adamishin, who was Soviet deputy foreign minister in 1990, claimed in 1997 that ''we were told during the German reunification process that NATO would not expand.'' Other former Soviet officials, including Mikhail Gorbachev, made similar assertions in 1996—1997. Some Western analysts and former officials, including Jack F. Matlock, who was the U.S. ambassador to the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1990, endorsed this view, arguing that Gorbachev received a ''clear commitment that if Germany united, and stayed in NATO, the borders of NATO would not move eastward.'' Pointing to comments recorded by the journalists Michael Beschloss and Strobe Talbott, former U.S. defense secretary Robert McNamara averred that ''the United States pledged never to expand NATO eastward if Moscow would agree to the unification of Germany.'' According to this view, ''the Clinton administration reneged on that commitment . . . when it decided to expand NATO to Eastern Europe.''
Topic:
NATO and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, North Atlantic, Moscow, Germany, and Spain

90. Bilateral Disputes between EU Member States and Russia

Author:
Mathias Roth
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Over the past years, a series of bilateral disputes between EU member states and Moscow have significantly affected EU–Russian relations and exposed sharp internal divisions over the EU's approach towards Russia. Despite their potential for having a highly disruptive impact on EU foreign policy, the EU still lacks a consensus on how to handle bilateral disputes. This paper employs a case-study approach to provide an in-depth analysis of selected disputes and reviews several questions of importance for the coherence of EU policy towards Russia: What kinds of issues are at the centre of bilateral disputes? What strategies do member states adopt to resolve them? Under what circumstances are disputes raised to the EU level? The paper concludes that the scope of 'EU solidarity' in bilateral disputes remains deeply contested and draws on insights from the case studies to propose a set of guidelines for the EU's approach to bilateral disputes.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Moscow