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131. Russian Security Strategy under Vladimir Putin: Russian and American Perspectives

Author:
Craig Nation
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Increasingly, the armed forces and a vision of security as emphasizing hard rather than soft security have come to the fore in Moscow's national security policy process. Due to this institutionally-driven vision, Russia sees itself facing increasing military-political and strategic threats all along its frontiers. Recent Russian policies reflect that perception and Moscow's adaptation to it. We may think this threat perception to be misguided, even bizarrely misconceived, given our own beliefs about what American policy is and what its goals are. Nevertheless, the strongest forces in the Russian policy community have bought into that vision and have made policy accordingly.
Topic:
Security and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Moscow

132. Kosovo Countdown: A Blueprint for Transition

Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Kosovo's transition to the status of conditional, or supervised, independence has been greatly complicated by Russia's firm support of Serbia's refusal to accept that it has lost its one-time province. Recognition of conditional independence has broad international, and certainly European Union (EU) and American, support. Under threat of Moscow's veto, the Security Council will not revoke its Resolution 1244 of 1999 that acknowledged Serbian sovereignty while setting up the UN Mission (UNMIK) to prepare Kosovo for self-government pending a political settlement on its future status. Nor will the Council be allowed to approve the plan for a conditionally independent Kosovo devised by the Secretary-General's special representative, Martti Ahtisaari, earlier this year and authorise the EU-led missions meant to implement that plan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Development, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Kosovo, Moscow, and Serbia

133. Serbia's New Government: Turning from Europe

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Serbia finally has a new government but one that is deeply divided between pro-Western and nationalist forces. Facing two difficult issues–Kosovo status and cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY)–its choice is between moving towards European integration or on to a more isolationist path. The government's composition, deep mistrust among many of its members and the parliament's nationalist majority suggest it will follow the second option. Pro-Western forces have suffered a significant setback, the government is vulnerable to manipulation by the security services and oligarchs, and the system of divided responsibility for the security services renders unlikely serious cooperation with the ICTY, especially the arrests of Ratko Mladic and Radovan Karadzic. Although Kosovo independence could destabilise the government, it may surprise and last far longer and prove more stable than expected. The West should prepare for Serbia turning increasingly away from Europe and towards Moscow.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Moscow, and Serbia

134. Central Asia's Energy Risks

Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Oil and gas are proving as much a burden as a benefit to Central Asia. The three oil and gas producers in the region – Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – are showing signs of the “resource curse” under which energy rich nations fail to thrive or develop distorted, unstable economies. Geography and their history in the Soviet Union have bound them to Russia, through which most of their energy exports must be transported. Moscow is proving to be an unreliable partner for foreign consumers as it has been willing to cut off pipelines to apply commercial or political pressure. Low investment, corruption and gross mismanagement in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan may mean that their supplies run low before they can diversify their links to markets or their economies. Central Asia is likely to see energy create instability within the region; the chances are low that it will be a factor in improving European energy security any time soon.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Soviet Union, Moscow, and Turkmenistan

135. A New President, a New Paradigm

Author:
Roger Noriega
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
U.S. policy in Latin America and the Caribbean always seems to inspire criticism: Too much, too little, too late. Back off. Get in the game. Don't just stand there, do something. Don't do something, just stand there. Our geographic closeness has meant a rich, natural partnership, but this proximity easily stirs concerns over sovereignty. When the United States is preoccupied with events in other parts of the world, regional pundits accuse Washington of indifference. If we speak clearly on the issues in Latin America, we are excoriated for poking our nose “where it doesn't belong.” So where does this leave U.S. foreign policy in the region? It could be that what we do may not be as important as how we do it. The first step in developing a new paradigm for engaging the Americas is using the 2008 election cycle here at home to develop a serious domestic constituency for our policy. Then we should shape that policy through a conscientious dialogue with stakeholders in the region.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, America, Washington, Moscow, and Latin America

136. Defense Reform and the Russian Navy

Author:
Yuri Krupnov
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
As recently as 1991 Russia maintained one of the world's largest military establishments. Moscow's powerful armed forces included one of the largest nuclear weapons arsenals. Owing to the profound political, economic and geostrategic transformation that Russia has experienced since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Russian armed forces have gone through a terrible crisis. The consequences of this crisis persist today. The Russian armed forces must, therefore, continue implementing reforms to deal with the new internal situation and the international security environment.
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, Soviet Union, and Moscow

137. Words and Deeds. Russian Foreign Policy and Post-Soviet Secessionist Conflicts

Author:
Geir Flikke and Jakub M. Godzimirski
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The goal of this report is to examine Russia's policy towards secessionist conflicts in the post-Soviet space. In order to better understand Russia's policy choices in that sphere, the report addresses three key issues: the internal Russian debate on separatism as a security challenge in the post-Soviet space; Moscow's policies with regard to international institutions, regimes and frameworks; and the rising security agenda of international terrorism.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Soviet Union, and Moscow

138. Chechnya Weekly: Volume 7, Issue 21

Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Four federal Interior Ministry troops were killed and three wounded in an ambush by rebel fighters in Chechnya's Vedeno on May 24, Russian and Western news agencies reported. According to the online journal Gazeta, a Russian Interior Ministry unit was ambushed near the settlement of Eshilkhatoi in central Vedeno district at around 11:30 PM local time on May 23 (Gazeta, May 25). The unit was reportedly searching for a group of 15-20 suspected militants spotted in the region earlier that day. The three wounded servicemen, including one major, were first treated at the Khankala base outside Grozny and later at the Russian military base at Mozdok, North Ossetia, from where they were flown to the Internal Troops' Central Military Clinical Hospital in the city of Balashikha outside Moscow. Additional units were deployed to block off the area where the ambush occurred, with troops actively searching for the attackers. As Gazeta noted, however, past experience shows that the perpetrators of such attacks are apprehended "extremely rarely." "They often simply dissolve among the inhabitants of local villages," the website observed. "Furthermore, the extremists are better familiarized with the locality and know all of the forest and mountain trails. We would also note that the Vedeno district is considered to be Shamil Basaev's ancestral lands."
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Chechnya, and Moscow

139. Chechnya Weekly: Abdurakhmanov floats unification trial balloon

Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The speaker of Chechnya's parliament has called for the unification of Chechnya and Ingushetia—and, possibly, Dagestan. In an interview with Interfax on April 24, Dukvakha Abdurakhmanov called the liquidation of the Chechen-Ingush Autonomous Republic in June 1992 a historical mistake. "I am firmly convinced that it was a gross historical mistake made for the sake of the ambitious mercenary interests of individual politicians of Checheno-Ingushetia and the then-ruling elite of Moscow," he told the news agency. Reunification, he said, would "forever extirpate possible centers of tension" and effectively resolve the lingering dispute over the administrative border between Chechnya and Ingushetia and jurisdiction over the Sunzhensky district, through which that administrative border passes.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Chechnya, Moscow, Ingushetia, and Dagestan

140. Chechnya Weekly: Foreign ministry protests jamestown conference

Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The Financial Times reported on April 19 that Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak had lodged a formal protest with the U.S. Ambassador to Moscow, William Burns, the previous day over The Jamestown Foundation-sponsored conference held in Washington on April 14 entitled "Sadullaev's Caucasian Front: Prospects for the Next Nalchik." RIA Novosti reported on April 18 that the Foreign Ministry had summoned the U.S. ambassador to, in the news agency's words, "hand him a note of protest against a seminar in Washington which it said called for new terrorist attacks in Russia." According to RIA Novosti, the ministry claimed that during the conference "the floor had been given to speakers who called for new terrorist acts in Russia." The news agency quoted the ministry as saying that "[t]he organization of such events in the United States contradicts the country's international obligations in the sphere of counter-terrorism" and that "[s]uch concessions on the part of Washington to Chechen militants and separatists also run counter to the spirit of partner-based bilateral anti-terrorist cooperation, and damage bilateral relations."
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Washington, Asia, and Moscow