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111. Asian Power: Sino-Russian Conflict in Central Asia?

Author:
Kathleen J. Hancock
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Russian President Vladimir Putin and the state-owned gas monopoly, Gazprom, made front-page news when they ceased exporting natural gas to Ukraine in the winter of 2006, leaving Europe both irate and fearful due to its dependency on Russian energy. What many failed to notice was that Russia's actions wekre consistent with a fifteen year-old policy of playing hardball with former Soviet members using gas and oil pipelines as carrots and sticks to force policies and actions favorable to Moscow.Three of the states most affected by this pipeline diplomacy and least discussed in the Western press are the resource-rich Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. While energy-importing European states are vulnerable to Russia cutting supplies, exporting Central Asian states worry about Moscow shutting down pipeline access, without which they have few export options. The relationship between these states and Russia is further complicated by China's interest in Central Asia. Although Beijing and Moscow have recently patched up their rivalry, the increasing economic strength of both states plus jockeying between Russia and Central Asian states to serve as China's energy supplier may push Russia and China back into an antagonistic, and potentially dangerous, relationship.
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Beijing, Asia, Uzbekistan, Soviet Union, and Moscow

112. Escaping Gazprom's Embrace

Author:
Borut Grgic and Alexandros Petersen
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
In the first month of 2008, Russia's state-controlled natural gas mono-poly, Gazprom, ticked off two more European countries that will rely almost entirely on Moscow for their everyday energy needs. On Janu¬ary 18th, Russian President Vladimir Putin, accompanied by his anointed successor, Gazprom chairman Dmitri Medvedev, pressured the govern¬ment in Sofia into signing an energy deal with Russia and providing its backing for the construction of the South Stream gas pipeline from Russia to Bulgaria, and further into Europe, undercutting EU- and U.S.-backed plans for a pipeline from Turkey. Then, a week later, Serbian President Boris Tadic, accompanied by his prime minister, visited Moscow and signed on the dotted line, allowing Gazprom to acquire a 51 percent stake in Serbia's national oil company (NIS). The ambitious move not only strengthened energy links between the two Slavic nations, but bolstered ties between the two most vocal opponents of independence for Kosovo.
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Kosovo, Moscow, Serbia, and Bulgaria

113. Chechnya Weekly: Kadyrov Keeps the Heat on the Yamadaevs

Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In what appears to be an ongoing campaign by Chechnya's pro-Moscow administration against the Vostok Battalion of the GRU (Russian military intelligence), investigators with the republic's law-enforcement bodies are looking into the battalion's possible involvement in the murder of the Arsamakov brothers (Chechnya Weekly, April 17 and 24; May 1). Kavkazky Uzel on May 8 quoted a Chechen law-enforcement source as saying that investigators who are looking into the Vostok Battalion's activities have information about the possible involvement of battalion members in the kidnapping and subsequent brutal murder of Yusup and Yunus Arsamakov and their driver, who disappeared in early February of 2007.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

114. Russia's Dagestan: Conflict Causes - Europe Report N°192

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The North Caucasus (Russian) Republic of Dagestan has avoided large-scale violence despite its proximity to Chechnya but is now suffering from escalating street warfare. Several hundred local and federal security forces, administrators, politicians, ministers and journalists have been killed since 2003. The militant Islamist organisation Shariat Jamaat is responsible for much of the violence. Some of its leaders fought in Chechnya, but its extremist propaganda is also attracting unemployed Dagestani youth. This home-grown extremism, espousing jihadi theology and employing terrorist methods, is a new phenomenon. Police efforts to end the street war have been ineffective and in some instances counter-productive. While supporting loyal local elites, Moscow can help halt the increase in violence if it implements an efficient anti-corruption policy and reintegrates youth into the economic and political system.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Corruption, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow

115. North Caucasus Weekly: Ingush Opposition Leaders Demand Aushev's Return

Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The campaign to gather signatures on a petition calling for the return of Ruslan Aushev as Ingushetia's president has been completed. According to the opposition Ingushetiya.ru website, leaders of the opposition to Ingushestia's current president, Murat Zyazikov, said during a press conference in Moscow on July 10 that a total of 105,000 signatures had been gathered, out of which 80,000 had been forwarded to the federal authorities in Moscow. According to the opposition leaders, an additional 25,000 signatures were seized by members of the anti-organized crime directorate (UBOP) of Ingushetia's Interior Ministry during a raid.
Political Geography:
Moscow, North Caucasus, and Ingushetia

116. Thinking Strategically About Russia

Author:
Dmitri V. Trenin
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
U.S.–Russian relations matter again. To succeed where Bush has failed, Obama needs to approach Russia strategically: enhancing cooperation where possible, mitigating conflict where necessary. To prevent new conflict and receive Moscow's cooperation, Washington needs to deal seriously with Russian concerns. Leave Russia's domestic politics to the Russians. To keep Ukraine whole and free, the EU integration way is the way. NATO has reached the safe limits of eastward expansion. To protect against missile threats, a pan-European TMD system—which includes Russia—is the best option. On Iran and Afghanistan, Russia should be treated as an equal partner
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Europe, Iran, Washington, Ukraine, and Moscow

117. Russian–American Security Relations After Georgia

Author:
Rose Gottemoeller
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Washington and Moscow's failure to develop a working relationship could lead to a dangerous crisis—perhaps even a nuclear one. There is an immediate need to grab onto the superstructure of the relationship through the STA RT and CFE treaties, both of which require urgent action. A new architecture should follow that to broaden the relationship, including the creation of a new future for security in Europe. Both capitals need to devise a strategy as well as a mechanism to manage the relationship and prevent future crises. A commission of past presidents—U.S. and Russian—would have the authority to confront these monumental tasks.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Europe, Washington, Eastern Europe, Moscow, and Georgia

118. Foreword: End of Post-Cold War Honeymoon

Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
European Affairs
Institution:
The European Institute
Abstract:
Russia's actions in Georgia showed that Moscow has rejected the Western-sponsored vision of transcending military threats in Europe for the ex-Soviet regime. Robert Hunter, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, explains what was lost. Dieter Dettke, a veteran German policy analyst, sees Berlin will not confront Moscow. With much of the global financial superstructure in meltdown, EA's previous analyses are followed up in this issue with a discussion on the limits of sovereign wealth funds as a source of salvation for U.S. and European businesses. In defense, despite the urgent need of a new aerial refueling tanker for the U.S. Air Force, politics has forced an unfortunate delay in the battle between Airbus and Boeing for the order. The book reviews in this issue include an insightful account of the long-term trends making it almost unthinkable for Europe to field enough soldiers to fight any of the world's new wars. Presciently, France's former foreign minister, Hubert Védrine, talked to EA in the summer about the return of nationalist real politik after the demise of over-optimistic assumptions about a Pax Americana.
Topic:
NATO and Cold War
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Moscow, and Georgia

119. Is It Interests or Values?

Author:
Joseph Ferguson
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
At the conclusion of the final summit meeting between Presidents George Bush and Vladimir Putin at the Russian resort of Sochi in early April, relations between Moscow and Washington appeared to have righted themselves. The cordial meeting between the outgoing presidents left a sense of optimism in both Moscow and in the West that U.S.-Russia relations would improve until at least the fall presidential elections in the United States. Things have quieted down between the two nations over the last quarter, as the leadership of both countries has gone about business at home and has lessened (though not ceased) the often-negative rhetoric. But when the summer concludes, Russia will again loom large in U.S. political debates, and the big questions of U.S. foreign policy – whether they revolve around Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Northeast Asia, or even Venezuela – will necessarily include Russia policy. And as President Dmitry Medvedev unveils his own version of “sovereign democracy,” U.S. foreign policymakers will be forced to address the fundamental question of whether U.S. policy toward Moscow is centered on its strategic interests, or on democratic values.
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Iraq, Washington, Moscow, Venezuela, and Northeast Asia

120. North Caucasus Weekly: Zyazikov Steps Dow

Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
North Caucasus Weekly (formerly Chechnya Weekly), The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On October 30, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed a decree ordering an early end to Murat Zyazikov's term as Ingushetia's president, Itar-Tass reported, citing the Russian presidential press service. Zyazikov, the former KGB general who headed Ingushetia for six and a half years, said that his resignation as Ingushetia's president was absolutely voluntary and connected to his transfer to another job. “I will be working in Moscow,” Interfax quoted him as saying. Zyazikov did not indicate what his new job would be.
Topic:
Security and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Moscow