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61. How Do Rebels Rule When They Win?

Author:
Kai M. Thaler
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Centerpiece
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
It is rare in recent years when a civil war has not grabbed global headlines—be it the ongoing civil wars and international interventions in Syria and Yemen, the fragile peace process to end Colombia’s half-century-long war, or the secession and collapse into violence of South Sudan, to name a few. This increase in media coverage reflects a growing number of civil wars around the world: since World War II, civil wars have surpassed interstate wars as the most prominent form of large-scale violent conflict. Most civil wars end in a government victory or negotiated settlement, but between one-fifth and one-third—depending on the definitions used—end in rebel victory with the capture of the central state or secession.1 Significant scholarly attention has focused on when, why, or how a rebel group takes power; we have little comparative evidence about the downstream effects of rebel victory. What state structures do victorious rebels abolish, modify, or create? How do they decide on policy priorities? What explains variation in the strength and scope of the states they build?
Topic:
Civil War, State Formation, Violence, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Syria

62. Women, Gender and Terrorism: Gendered Aspects of Radicalization and Recruitment

Author:
Jeannette Gaudry
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Women In International Security (WIIS)
Abstract:
The rise of groups like ISIS has galvanized the expansion of the global terrorism problem. While ISIS is hardly the first extremist organization to attract women and to use gendered tactics for recruitment, its formation and growth has paralleled the explosion of social media, bringing unprecedented attention to the problem. As scholars and policymakers attempt to develop coherent responses to the threats that groups like ISIS pose, three critical issues need to be addressed. (1) What drives individuals to join extremist groups, and are these drivers different for men or women? (2) What are common methods of recruitment, and do they differ by gender? (3) Have states and international institutions integrated gender perspectives in their responses to radicalization and extremist violence? Do these approaches empower women to resist recruitment? Without an integrated dialogue between the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) and counterterrorism communities, the answers to these questions will remain incomplete and policy responses may fall short.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Women, Radicalization, Violence, and Political Movements
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

63. Women, Gender and Terrorism: The Missing Links

Author:
Chantal de Jonge Oudraat and Michael E. Brown
Publication Date:
08-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Women In International Security (WIIS)
Abstract:
In March 2016, WIIS launched the Women, Terrorism, and Violent Extremism program. With the generous support of the Embassy of Liechtenstein in Washington, D.C., WIIS will facilitate a series of expert roundtables to explore the role of women in terrorist and violent extremist organizations, including the gendered dimensions of radicalization. These round tables will provide a forum for bringing together an international group of experts and policymakers from the counter-terrorism and Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) communities. Key takeaways and recommendations of expert roundtables will be captured and disseminated in the form of policy briefs. The first Policy Brief draws on the first roundtable discussion, held on March 20, 2016. This roundtable featured four noted experts: Ms. Sanam Anderlini, Co-founder and Executive Director of the International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN); Dr. Kathleen Kuehnast, Senior Gender Advisor at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP); Dr. Paul Pillar, former official of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and now a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution; and Dr. Lorenzo Vidino, Director of the Program on Extremism at George Washington University’s Center for Cyber and Homeland Security.
Topic:
Security, Gender Issues, Terrorism, Women, Radicalization, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East and Global Focus

64. Exclusion and Violence in Post-2003 Iraq

Author:
Yasir Kuoti
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Abstract:
This paper examines the origins of political violence in Iraq. It argues that, in the wake of the democratic transition process in from 2004 to 2005, Iraqi exiles, who were chiefly Shiite Muslims and Kurds appointed by Paul Bremer, Iraq’s U.S. civilian administrator, moved to write a constitution and set up a political system that deliberately marginalized minorities. Since then, the Sunni minority began and continues to engage in or support violence against the state. It suggests that violence and instability in Iraq are to be understood in terms of local contexts of meaning, notably the nature of struggle for political power.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Political Power Sharing, and Violence
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and North America

65. Palestinians’ Internal Politics and Conflicts

Author:
Bassem Eid
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Clarke Forum for Contemporary Issues
Abstract:
Since 2007, Palestinians have become so divided that reconciliation is in the interest of neither Hamas nor Abbas. Bassem Eid discusses the internal politics and significance of this divide.
Topic:
Human Rights, Politics, Violent Extremism, Occupation, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank

66. Employment Status and Support for Wartime Violence: Evidence from the Iraq War

Author:
Andrew Shaver
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
The unemployed are often inculpated in the production of violence during conflict. A simple yet common argument describes these individuals as disaffected and inclined to perpetrate affectively motivated violence. A second holds that they are drawn to violent political organizations for lack of better outside options. Yet, evidence in support of a general positive relationship between unemployment and violence during conflict is not established. Drawing from a large body of psychological research, I argue that a basic but important relationship has been overlooked: Loss of employment, rather than rendering individuals angry, increases feelings of depression, anxiety, helplessness, and belief in the power of others. Members of this segment of society are more likely than most to reject the use of violence. Drawing on previously unreleased data from a major, multi-million dollar survey effort carried out during the Iraq war, I uncover evidence that psychological findings carry to conflict settings: unemployed Iraqis were consistently less optimistic than other citizens; displayed diminished perceptions of efficacy; and were much less likely to support the use of violence against Coalition forces.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Labor Issues, Conflict, Violence, War on Terror, and Quantitative
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

67. Egypt: North Sinai Crisis Deepens

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The overthrow of Mohamed Morsi and the continuing deterioration of the relationship between Hamas and the current Egyptian government has caused significant convergence of Egypt and Israel’s attitudes towards Hamas and the situation in the Gaza Strip, with the common goal of weakening Hamas and containing its influence in the Gaza Strip. Therefore, the Sisi regime’s recent decision to establish a buffer zone on the border has nothing to do with the fight against terrorism in Sinai and dealing with armed groups there; rather, it has everything to do with Israeli-US demands for such a zone. It is important to note that this decision is not expected to impact, positively or negatively, the ongoing war between the Egyptian government and armed groups in northern Sinai. In the same context, the opposition group Ansar Bait al-Maqdis (ABM) has recently started to follow the Islamic State (IS) group’s methods with their opponents in incubator areas, including killing those accused of being collaborators with Egyptian and Israeli security services and then explicitly claiming responsibility for the killings. Externally, in the context of the collapse of central control in Libya after the revolution, and the escalating hostility between Libyan rebels and the Egyptian regime, it is also no longer likely that armed groups in northern Sinai and Libyan armed groups will coordinate, even with their shared ideological backgrounds. This paper addresses two key questions: To what extent can the Egyptian government’s approach succeed in containing the escalating wave of armed violence in this highly turbulent region? Is the decision to establish the buffer zone aimed at aiding counter-terrorism efforts in North Sinai, or is it designed to achieve other goals?
Topic:
Security, Counter-terrorism, Violence, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, North Africa, Egypt, and Sinai Peninsula

68. ‘Leaving the mountain’: How may the PKK lay down arms? Freeing the Kurdish Question from violence

Author:
Cengiz Çandar
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
The democratic norms, introduced with globalization and embodied in the EU membership criteria, served as a leverage for Turkey like in many other countries. They enabled the society to gain a new insight in its own history and state and as a result the problems that had often been overlooked and swept under the carpet were inevitably included in the domain of politics. The issue, which is often referred to as the ‘Kurdish Question’ yet essentially expresses the refusal by the state to meet the existential and cultural demands of Turkish citizens with Kurdish identity, constitutes the biggest obstacle to democratization in terms of its scope and historical background. Accordingly, today, there is a widespread belief that democracy cannot become entrenched in society unless the ‘Kurdish Question’ is resolved. The TESEV Democratization Program has systematically addressed the ‘Kurdish Question’ in the recent years and brought it to the public attention. Three reports were prepared as a result of an extensive field work, where we attempted to clarify the demands of the politically diverse Kurdish people, the possible constitutional and legal responses to these demands and how these demands are perceived by other segments of the society. The collision of this process with the widening of the domain of politics in Turkey has led to the idea of seeking for ‘the resolution’ within the framework of a new constitution. On the other hand, there is a growing understanding that ‘the resolution’ has some aspects that go beyond the legal context. For establishing a future based on trust requires conclusively burying the past in the pages of history while also ensuring its visibility, which in turn implies a confrontation among different identities. Therefore, the resolution of the ‘Kurdish Question’ needs a democratic method and approach, whereby parties are able to develop an attitude that addresses the whole society and show consent to a policy that does not encumber the future. Yet, the reciprocal past and present violence between the state and the PKK makes it necessary to create a transparent medium for dialogue to realize potential solutions, and therefore to embark upon a journey towards a solution with no way back. This means ensuring that all members of the PKK, including Öcalan, gradually perceive themselves as a part of the political process. This period, in which we are on the verge of creating the new constitution and concurrently solving the ‘Kurdish Question’, is a vital one. This TESEV report analyses what type of a political infrastructure is needed to build a favorable environment for such a dialogue. The study conducted by Cengiz Çandar, one of the most competent observers of the issue, reveals how the building blocks for resolution can be placed in a realistic way and in consideration of the plurality within both sides. Our expectation is that this groundwork presented here will offer a meaningful contribution and roadmap both for the settlement of the ‘Kurdish Question’ and for the democratization process of Turkey …
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Non State Actors, Negotiation, Violence, and Kurds
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan

69. The Effect of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq

Author:
Radha Iyengar, Luke N. Condra, Joseph Felter, and Jacob N. Shapiro
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:
A central question in intrastate conflicts is how insurgents are able to mobilize supporters to participate in violent and risky activities. A common explanation is that violence committed by counterinsurgent forces mobilizes certain segments of the population through a range of mechanisms. We study the effects of civilian casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan to quantify the effect of such casualties on subsequent insurgent violence. By comparing uniquely detailed micro-data along temporal, spatial, and gender dimensions we can distinguish short-run 'information' and 'capacity' effects from the longer run 'propaganda' and 'revenge' effects. In Afghanistan we find strong evidence that local exposure to civilian casualties caused by international forces leads to increased insurgent violence over the long-run, what we term the 'revenge' effect. Matching districts with similar past trends in violence shows that counterinsurgent-generated civilian casualties from a typical incident are responsible for 1 additional violent incident in an average sized district in the following 6 weeks and lead to increased violence over the next 6 months. There is no evidence that out-of-area events—errant air strikes for example—lead to increased violence, nor is there evidence of short run effects, thus ruling out the propaganda, information, and capacity mechanisms. Critically, we find no evidence of a similar reaction to civilian casualties in Iraq, suggesting the constraints on insurgent production of violence may be quite conflict-specific. Our results imply that minimizing harm to civilians may indeed help counterinsurgent forces in Afghanistan to reduce insurgent recruitment.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, Conflict, Violence, War on Terror, Civilians, and Casualties
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, and Middle East

70. Jordanian Tribal Violence: Historical Context and Current Problems

Author:
Hayley Mohan
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic Studies (CSS)
Abstract:
The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan’s rich developmental history in both the political and social spheres have been complex and dynamic, ever since the country’s creation in the early 1920s. If any research pertaining to Jordan’s society is to be understood, it first must be placed in a historical context, and later examined on its own. Perhaps the most prevalent social issue facing this country is violence between tribes and dangerous infighting. While crime is considered low in Jordan,1 2009 started a seemingly peculiar upswing in the number of violent disputes between tribes. Although the problem itself is not new because Jordan has always been a tribally organized society, the statistics of 2009, which will be discussed later on, provide an interesting foundation for discussion. Using that year as a jumping-off point, we will ask several key questions to anchor our research: What is the historical background of tribes in Jordan? Has this changed over time? What made 2009 an unusual year? What can we conclude, or solutions can be suggested? Ideally, discovered case studies and examples will be able to help us glean an understanding of this complicated social issue.
Topic:
History, Conflict, Violence, Tribes, and Society
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan