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62. Dealing Preventively with NPT Withdrawal
- Author:
- Pierre Goldschmidt
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- Since it came into force in 1970, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) has worked remarkably well to prevent the horizontal proliferation of nuclear weapons. The one major exception is North Korea, which withdrew from the NPT in 2003. Despite this track record of success, the stability of the current non-proliferation regime could be significantly undermined by further withdrawals by countries such as Iran. The right of states to withdraw from the NPT is clearly stated in the Treaty. Article X.1 provides that: “Each Party shall in exercising its national sovereignty have the right to withdraw from the Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events, related to the subject matter of this Treaty, have jeopardized the supreme interests of its country. It shall give notice of such withdrawal to all other parties to the Treaty and to the United Nations Security Council three months in advance. Such notice shall include a statement of the extraordinary events it regards as having jeopardized its supreme interests.” Since it is impossible to deny the right of states parties to withdraw from the NPT, it is all the more important to put in place appropriate preventive measures to dissuade withdrawal from the Treaty. The urgency of dealing preventively with NPT withdrawal increases as more nonnuclear-weapon states are poised to become “nuclear threshold states.”1 As the IAEA reported in 2008: “Much of the sensitive information coming from the [Abdul Qadeer Khan] network existed in electronic form, enabling easier use and dissemination. This includes information that relates to uranium centrifuge enrichment and, more disturbing, information that relates to nuclear weapon design.”2 and: “a substantial amount of sensitive information related to the fabrication of a nuclear weapon was available to members of the network."3 The widespread dissemination of this type of scientific and technical information raises the prospect that more states will acquire the capability to manufacture nuclear weapons and their means of delivery, thus increasing the
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
63. A New Erdogan-Putin Deal in Idlib May Help—For Now
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Turkey, Russia, and Washington have compelling reasons to welcome a new ceasefire agreement, however imperfect, but they still need to address the longer-term dangers posed by the Assad regime’s murderously maximalist strategy. Recent fighting between Turkish and Syrian regime forces in Idlib province has seemingly wiped away the last vestiges of the September 2018 Sochi agreement, brokered by Russian president Vladimir Putin as a way of pausing hostilities and dividing control over the country’s last rebel-held province. Beginning last December, renewed Russian and Syrian attacks against civilians sent a million residents fleeing toward the Turkish border, creating another humanitarian disaster. Then, on February 27, thirty-three Turkish soldiers were killed when their unit was attacked in Idlib—Ankara’s largest single-day loss in Syria thus far. Turkey initially blamed Bashar al-Assad for the deaths, but eyes soon turned to his Russian patron as the more likely culprit, elevating tensions between Ankara and Moscow to a level not seen since Turkish forces shot down a Russian plane in November 2015. Meanwhile, the Turkish military and its local partner forces launched a string of attacks against the Syrian regime and its Iranian-backed militia allies. On March 5, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Putin in Moscow to discuss these rising tensions. If the two leaders reach another ceasefire deal, will it last any longer than the short-lived Sochi agreement? More important, what effect might it have on the latest refugee crisis threatening to wash over Turkey and Europe?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Syrian War, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, United States of America, and Idlib
64. Europe Is Creating an Opportunity for Iran Talks, and Washington Should Take It
- Author:
- Charles Thépaut and Elena DeLozier
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- By triggering the nuclear deal’s dispute resolution mechanism, Britain, France, and Germany are opening diplomatic space that could help the United States and Iran return to the negotiating table. In a press conference following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, President Trump reaffirmed his administration’s “maximum pressure” policy against Iran and asked, once again, for European countries to leave the nuclear deal. Meanwhile, Tehran announced what it called a “fifth and final remedial step” away from its commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. In response, the British, French, and German foreign ministers stated on January 14 that they would trigger the JCPOA’s dispute resolution mechanism (DRM). At the same time, however, the E3 clarified that they are not joining the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign, which has steadily intensified ever since the United States withdrew from the JCPOA and reimposed unilateral sanctions in 2018. Contrary to U.S. claims, the European decision will not immediately provoke “snapback” UN sanctions on Iran (though that scenario could unfold later if the E3 plan fails and Iran’s violations go before the UN Security Council). Instead, Europe is maintaining its evenhanded position somewhere between Washington and Tehran in order to preserve the possibility of new negotiations, on both the nuclear program and other regional issues.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Nuclear Power, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America
65. The White House Peace Plan Meeting: U.S. Goals, Israeli Repercussions
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Whether they reveal a detailed plan or merely preview an aspirational document, U.S. officials still need to clarify their goals at a time when elections are looming and Palestinian participation seems highly unlikely. In a dramatic move, President Trump has announced that Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his leading rival, Blue and White Party leader Benny Gantz, will visit the White House on January 28 to be briefed on the administration’s long-awaited Middle East peace plan. Trump told reporters that the plan would likely be released before the summit. Predictably, no invitation was extended to the Palestinian Authority, which severed relations with Washington after the U.S. embassy was moved to Jerusalem in 2017.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Negotiation, Peace, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
66. Current Dynamics and Emerging Threats in Yemen
- Author:
- Abo Alasrar, Nadwa Al-Dawsari, Ibrahim Jalal, and Gerald Feierstein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Virtual roundtable recorded March 25, 2020, featuring presentations by MEI scholars Fatima Abo Alasrar, Nadwa Al-Dawsari, and Ibrahim Jalal. This roundtable covered a range of topics including Houthi expansion, prospects for new negotiations, the implementation of the Riyadh Agreement, and the coronavirus’ impact on Yemen.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, Negotiation, Houthis, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
67. The Riyadh Agreement’s Fading Promise – The Yemen Review, October 2020
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Conflict, Houthis, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America
68. Israel and the UAE: Old New Friends
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin analyzes economic factors involved in the recent UAE-Israel normalization accords. In August 2020, the US, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced the full normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. In September, the Abraham Accords were signed at the White House between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain and the US. The establishment of diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE and Israel and Bahrain opens the door for trade, investment and cooperation. Israel is looking for markets, investments and joint projects. The UAE is dominated by two emirates: Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Abu Dhabi is the main oil producer in the UAE and is thus one of the largest in the world. It has a strong interest in reorienting its economy away from oil and has invested in green technologies. Dubai has invested heavily in real estate and tourism and also wants to diversify its economy. Israel is a very suitable trading partner given its strength in hi-tech.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, Economy, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United Arab Emirates
69. UAE treaty part of a much bigger game
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel is a key player in the crisis currently unfolding in the eastern Mediterranean basin, on the same side as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Greece.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Peace, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Gulf Nations, and UAE
70. Tempered Euphoria on the UAE-Israel Agreement
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The deal is a clear win for Israel, the UAE and the US. Netanyahu gets a face-saving, significant reward for not doing something (annexation) he was not going to be able to do anyway in the current political/diplomatic context.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Leadership, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, United States of America, and UAE