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202. Iran, Afghanistan, and South Asia: Resolving Regional Sources of Instability
- Author:
- Barbara Slavin and Fatemah Aman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- When compared to its often rocky relations with Arab countries to the west, the Islamic Republic of Iran has managed to retain largely cordial ties with its neighbors to the east. Historic linguistic, religious, and cultural connections have helped Iran keep its influence in South Asia and become a key trading partner despite US-led sanctions. Because of its strategic location on the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea, Iran provides India with access to Afghanistan and Central Asia that does not require transit through Pakistan. However, Iran and its neighbors, including Pakistan, face acute challenges such as scarce and poorly managed water resources, ethnic insurgencies, energy imbalances, and drug trafficking that require regional solutions.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iran, South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Arabia, North America, and Persia
203. Nuclear Nightmares: Securing the World Before It Is Too Late
- Author:
- Joseph Cirincione
- Publication Date:
- 11-2013
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- Columbia University Press
- Abstract:
- There is a high risk that someone will use, by accident or design, one or more of the 17,000 nuclear weapons in the world today. Many thought such threats ended with the Cold War or that current policies can prevent or contain nuclear disaster. They are dead wrong--these weapons, possessed by states large and small, stable and unstable, remain an ongoing nightmare. Joseph Cirincione surveys the best thinking and worst fears of experts specializing in nuclear warfare and assesses the efforts to reduce or eliminate these nuclear dangers. His book offers hope: in the 1960s, twenty-three states had nuclear weapons and research programs; today, only nine states have weapons. More countries have abandoned nuclear weapon programs than have developed them, and global arsenals are just one-quarter of what they were during the Cold War. Yet can these trends continue, or are we on the brink of a new arms race--or worse, nuclear war? A former member of Senator Obama's nuclear policy team, Cirincione helped shape the policies unveiled in Prague in 2009, and, as president of an organization intent on reducing nuclear threats, he operates at the center of debates on nuclear terrorism, new nuclear nations, and the risks of existing arsenals.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, and East Asia
- Publication Identifier:
- 9780231164054
- Publication Identifier Type:
- ISBN
204. Decoding Al-Qaeda's Strategy: The Deep Battle Against America
- Author:
- Michael W. S. Ryan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- Columbia University Press
- Abstract:
- By consulting the work of well-known and obscure al-Qaeda theoreticians, Michael W. S. Ryan finds jihadist terrorism strategy has more in common with the principles of Maoist guerrilla warfare than mainstream Islam. Encouraging strategists and researchers to devote greater attention to jihadi ideas rather than jihadist military operations, Ryan builds an effective framework for analyzing al-Qaeda's plans against America and constructs a compelling counternarrative to the West's supposed "war on Islam." Ryan examines the Salafist roots of al-Qaeda ideology and the contributions of its most famous founders, Osama Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, in a political-military context. He also reads the Arabic-language works of lesser known theoreticians who have played an instrumental role in framing al-Qaeda's so-called war of the oppressed. These authors readily cite the guerrilla strategies of Mao, Che Guevara, and the mastermind of the Vietnam War, General Giap. They also incorporate the arguments of American theorists writing on "fourth-generation warfare." Through these texts, readers experience events as insiders see them, and by concentrating on the activities and pronouncements of al-Qaeda's thought leaders, especially in Yemen, they discern the direct link between al-Qaeda's tactics and trends in anti-U.S. terrorism. Ryan shows al-Qaeda's political-military strategy to be a revolutionary and largely secular departure from the classic Muslim conception of jihad, adding invaluable dimensions to the operational, psychological, and informational strategies already deployed by America's military in the region.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
- Publication Identifier:
- 9780231533270
- Publication Identifier Type:
- ISBN
205. Iraq's sectarian crisis reignites as Shi'a militias execute civilians and remobilize
- Author:
- Ahmed Ali, Kimberly Kagan, and Jessica Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Escalating violence in Iraq crossed a new and very dangerous threshold this week. Al Qaeda in Iraq launched a concentrated wave of car-bomb and other attacks specifically against civilian Shi'a targets in and around Baghdad. Shi'a militias are mobilizing and have begun a round of sectarian killings facilitated by false checkpoints, a technique characteristic of the 2006-2007 period. Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki has taken a number of steps to demonstrate that he remains in control of the situation. The expansion of Shi'a militia activity, however, is likely to persuade many Iraqis that he is either not in control or is actively abetting the killings. The re-mobilization of Shi'a militias in Iraq coincides with the formal announcement by Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah of his organization's active military participation in the Syrian civil war. Al Qaeda in Iraq's sectarian mass-murder attacks coincide with the announcement by AQI's affiliate in Syria, Jabhat al Nusra, that attacking Hezbollah is that group's primary target henceforth. The stage appears to be set not merely for the collapse of the Iraqi state into the kind of vicious sectarian killing and sectarian cleansing that nearly destroyed it in 2006 and 2007, but also for the expansion of that sectarian warfare throughout both Mesopotamia and the Levant.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
206. AQI's "Soldiers' Harvest" Campaign
- Author:
- Jessica Lewis
- Publication Date:
- 10-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) announced "The Soldiers' Harvest," a new campaign on July 29, 2013, immediately after the Abu Ghraib prison attack. AQI then declared that event the conclusion of the "Breaking the Walls" campaign, which apparently achieved its goals: to stoke sectarian violence by targeting Shi'a communities; and to reconstitute the veteran AQI fighting force by breaking former members out of Iraq's prisons. ISW has assessed that AQI has reconstituted as a professional military force. It is therefore crucial to examine the first 60 days of the new "Soldiers' Harvest" campaign for indications of what AQI means to accomplish this year. Initial indications suggest that AQI will seek to establish control of key terrain in Iraq while targeting any Sunnis who work for the government. The campaign name, "The Soldiers' Harvest," refers in particular to the intimidation and displacement of the Iraqi Security Forces, especially through the destruction of their homes.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Sectarianism, Sectarian violence, and Prisons/Penal Systems
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
207. Strategy of Deterrence and Terrorism: Challenges and Opportunities
- Author:
- Linda Janků and Petr Suchý
- Publication Date:
- 06-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Obrana a strategie (Defence & Strategy)
- Institution:
- University of Defence
- Abstract:
- The article deals with deterrence of terrorism. The aim is to assess validity of a proposition that it is possible to deter terrorist groups, but there are some specifics in comparison to the deterrence of states. First, we determine deterrence threats which can be applied in relation to terrorist groups and discuss possible restraints of their application in practice. This is followed by an analysis of whether deterrence can be applied against all types of terrorist groups without distinction, where we develop a model of classification of terrorist groups according to the goals which they pursue. So far, the topic of deterrence of terrorism has not been discussed in detail in the Czech academic texts. This article thus seeks to fill this lacuna and highlight the benefits of applying deterrence strategy to the terrorist groups.
- Topic:
- NATO, Terrorism, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Asia, France, and Arabia
208. The Geopolitics of the Sunni-Shi'i Divide in the Middle East
- Author:
- Samuel Helfont
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- In 2006, during the heart of the Global War on Terrorism, a New York Times reporter went to Washington in an attempt to ascertain the extent that American officials understood the ideologies underpinning Islamist terrorism. The reporter began with a simple question: could senior counterterrorism officials identify which groups were Sunnis and which were Shi'is? Remarkably senior officials and lawmakers – including the Chief of the F.B.I.‟s national security branch, and members of the U.S. House of Representatives‟ committees on intelligence and counter terrorism – had “no clue” whether actors such as Iran, Hezbollah, or al-Qaida were Sunnis or Shi„is. A number of questions emerged from this encounter. First, who are the Sunnis and Shi„is? Second, where are they located? And, finally, does it matter?
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Islam, Religion, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Counterinsurgency, and Sectarianism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
209. Whack-a-Mole or Coup de Grace? Institutionalization and Leadership Targeting in Iraq and Afghanistan
- Author:
- Austin Long
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
- Abstract:
- War is fundamentally a clash of organizations. Organizations provide the vital mechanisms that mobilize and convert resources into combat power as well as applying that combat power against the enemy. This is true not only of conventional militaries, but also of insurgent and terrorist groups. Organizational capacity is thus a crucial determinant of success in conflict. Stephen Biddle, for example, attributes heavy causal weight for success in modern conventional military conflict to the relative capacity of military organizations to employ a set of techniques he terms “the modern system.” Philip Selznick argues that organization is equally crucial for success in political combat, where subversion of other organizations is as important as brute force.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
210. Clear and Present Safety
- Author:
- Michael Cohen and Micah Zenko
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Foreign Affairs
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Last August, the Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney performed what has become a quadrennial rite of passage in American presidential politics: he delivered a speech to the annual convention of the Veterans of Foreign Wars. His message was rooted in another grand American tradition: hyping foreign threats to the United States. It is “wishful thinking,” Romney declared, “that the world is becoming a safer place. The opposite is true. Consider simply the jihadists, a near-nuclear Iran, a turbulent Middle East, an unstable Pakistan, a delusional North Korea, an assertive Russia, and an emerging global power called China. No, the world is not becoming safer.” Not long after, U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta echoed Romney's statement. In a lecture last October, Panetta warned of threats arising “from terrorism to nuclear proliferation; from rogue states to cyber attacks; from revolutions in the Middle East, to economic crisis in Europe, to the rise of new powers such as China and India. All of these changes represent security, geopolitical, economic, and demographic shifts in the international order that make the world more unpredictable, more volatile and, yes, more dangerous.” General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, concurred in a recent speech, arguing that “the number and kinds of threats we face have increased significantly.” And U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reinforced the point by claiming that America resides today in a “very complex, dangerous world.”
- Topic:
- Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, Middle East, and India