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61. Fearing a 'Shiite Octopus'. Sunni – Shi'a relations and the implications for Belgium and Europe

Author:
Jelle Puelings
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
During the last five years, and more specifically since the US invasion of Irak, different Sunni policy makers and religious actors have ventilated their concern for what they see as the rise of Shiite Islam. Although the condemnation of Shiism by more rigorous currents such as Wahhabism is hardly new, recently different governments in the Middle East have taken concrete measures against Shiite actors. The same 'Cold War scenario' the region witnessed immediately after the Iranian Revolution seems to appear again, making Arab Sunni voices reverberate up to Western policy makers, who start to worry themselves about the role of Iran and its allies. In this paper we will try to give an evaluation of this alleged shift in the Sunni-Shi`a power balance, and point out the possible consequences for Belgium and the EU emanating from this controversy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islam, Bilateral Relations, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Arabia, and Belgium

62. Renewed Violence against Egypt's Coptic Christians

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 6 -- Christmas Eve according to the Eastern Orthodox calendar -- six Coptic Christians and a policeman were killed in a drive-by shooting while exiting church in Naga Hammadi, Upper Egypt. The attack, which came in retaliation to an alleged rape of a twelve-year-old Muslim girl by a Christian man, was the largest assault on Copts in Egypt since a January 2000 massacre left twenty dead in Sohag. The days since the shooting have been marked by violent clashes and the burning of Christian and Muslim property. These developments have unfolded against the background of increased political pressure on Islamists -- evoking the 1990s, when the killing of Copts by Islamist militants was a routine occurrence and the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB) was banned from political participation. Thus, while Naga Hammadi might be an isolated incident, it could also presage the return of Egypt's Islamists to the bloody sectarian attacks of the 1990s.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

63. Promise, Peril for Iraq's New Government: Interview with Joost Hiltermann

Author:
Bernard Gwertzman (interviewer)
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
After nine months of political wrangling, Iraq's parliament confirmed Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's new coalition government December 21. Though the government is "a good basis for setting out," says Iraq expert Joost Hiltermann, there's much uncertainty about how cohesive it will be and whether the inclusive government formed can govern. Hiltermann says there are questions about who will head the three major security ministries, whether a new National Council for Strategic Policy--designed as a "real check" against Maliki's power--will be approved by parliament, and whether Ayad Allawi, who headed the Iraqiya bloc that won the most seats in the election, will want to head that council. The United States pushed a power-sharing agreement "that went beyond the sharing of ministerial positions," says Hiltermann, but it remains to be seen whether various factions, including the prime minister and his allies, will allow that to happen.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Government, Politics, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

64. Iraqi Candidate Disqualification Update

Author:
Marisa Cochrane Sullivan and James Danly
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Seven of the eight names of the Accountability and Justice Commission's additional candidates for disqualification, based upon the de-Baathification law, were released today by Haider al-Mullah, spokesman for the Iraqi List. These individuals join Ibrahim al-Mutlak, who was among the 52 candidates named prior to the election, but whose disqualification at the time was denied by IHEC for having been named too late in the election process.On April 26, 2010, the three-judge election panel nullified their candidacies in response to an appeal submitted by the State of Law List, led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
Topic:
Democratization, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

65. Iraq on the Eve of Elections

Author:
Marisa Cochrane Sullivan
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
This backgrounder provides an update on the political landscape in Iraq on the eve of parliamentary elections. The paper begins with a brief overview of the electoral process. The second part of the backgrounder documents the Shi'a, Sunni, and Kurdish political landscapes. This paper concludes with some considerations on the post-election period of government formation.
Topic:
Islam, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

66. Iraqi Elections Update

Author:
James Danly
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
This backgrounder is an update to the ISW publication dated January 14, 2010 and entitled "Sunni Politicians Barred from Candidacy." The political landscape in Iraq has changed dramatically. Multiple government entities and politicians have weighed-in on the issue of the candidate ban, various politicians have claimed un due foreign involvement by different governments and, as the elections draw near, Iraq's already tense politics have become even more divisive. The candidates' ban has sparked widespread claims of legal and constitutional illegitimacy, threats of election boycotts and a nationwide rise in vehement anti-Ba'athism. This political environment threatens the legitimacy of Iraq's second national elections since the fall of the Ba'athist regime in 2003. The following paper briefly details and analyzes the events that have unfolded since the publication of the original.
Topic:
Democratization, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

67. Confidence Building between Turks and Iraqi Kurds

Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Obama administration's “responsible redeployment” from Iraq is made even more urgent by the requirements resulting from worsening conditions in Afghanistan and Pakistan. For redeployment to occur on scale and on schedule, the United States seeks an end-state in Iraq that is stable and at peace with its neighbors. Simmering sectarian violence is inevitable, but it will not break Iraq. However, ethnic conflict between Arabs and Kurds could escalate into a major conflagration with regional implications.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Bilateral Relations, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

68. Asaib Ahl al Haq and the Special Groups

Author:
Marisa Cochrane Sullivan
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Multi-National Force-Iraq has identified various Shia extremist groups operating in Iraq, often using the label Special Groups or Secret Cells. MNF-I named Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH, or the Leage of the Righteous) as an active group on August 19, 2008 and released information that AAH is "affiliated" with Special Groups.This paper evaluates how the two groups, Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Special Groups are affiliated by testing four hypotheses about the relationship between the Special Groups network, led at one time by Qais Khazali, and Asaib Ahl al Haq (League of the Righteous).
Topic:
Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Middle East

69. Multi-National Division – Center's Operations during the 2007-2008 Troop Surge

Author:
Farook Ahmed
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Prior to June 2007, there was minimal Coalition presence in the suburban "belts" that ring Baghdad. As a result, by December 2006, al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) had sanctuary in the Tigris, Euphrates and Diyala river valleys north and south of Baghdad. AQI was in control of a relatively small section of West Baghdad. Insurgents used the areas south of Baghdad, particularly the area of Arab Jabour, as supporting nodes to build improvised explosive devices (IEDs), Vehicle-Borne IEDs (VBIEDs - car and truck bombs) and then move them into Baghdad. Captured documents show that the group's strategy was to control those areas and then project its power into Baghdad with the ultimate goal of overtaking the city.
Topic:
Islam, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

70. Recent Attacks in Iraq: Al-Qaeda in Iraq or Special Groups?

Author:
Marisa Cochrane Sullivan
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Over the last month there has been an increase in coordinated, well-planned attacks. While Coalition Forces are still investigating the perpetrators of these attacks, others have been quick to credit al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). Although AQI is still present in Iraq, their networks have been largely disrupted by aggressive operations by Coalition Forces and Sons of Iraq (SoI). Since June 2007, the number of AQI attacks has decreased by eighty percent. Their recent activity has been limited to the use of female suicide bombers on soft targets. It is unlikely that AQI has regenerated its forces and capabilities in such a short period of time.
Topic:
Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Middle East