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51. Tribal Governance and Stability in Yemen

Author:
Nadwa Al-Dawsari
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The power-sharing deal signed by Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh in November 2011 mentioned presidential elections, the formation of a national unity government, and a military commission to reform the armed forces. It was at best the first step in Yemen's recovery from the protracted turmoil and instability that wracked the country for months.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Democratization, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia

52. Relations With Iraq's Kurds: Toward A Working Partnership

Author:
Ramzy Mardini
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani will be visiting the White House on April 4 and meeting with President Barack Obama. Discussions are likely to involve Kurdish concerns about Iraq's prime minister, but may largely focus on defining what Vice President Joseph Biden termed as a "special relationship" between the U.S. and Kurds during his visit to Arbil last December. Relations between the governments of the United States and Kurdish Region have grown and deepened considerably since the 2003 U.S.-led military invasion of Iraq. The Kurds continued to be staunch proponents of the American presence and ongoing engagement in Iraq.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

53. Sadr's Balancing Act on Maliki

Author:
Stephen Wicken
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Opponents of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki have been pushing for his removal from power for much of his second term in office. In recent months, Kurdistan Regional Government President Massoud Barzani and leaders from the Iraqiyya list have turned to an effort to withdraw confidence in Maliki as prime minister. Iraq's Shi'ite parties, though concerned about Maliki's accumulation of power, have largely abstained from the no-confidence push. Yet the anti-Maliki effort gained new life in mid-April when the powerful Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr intensified his opposition to Maliki and voiced his intention to remove the premier. Sadr's push for a no-confidence vote is an important inflection not only in his own posture towards Maliki, but also in the ongoing political crisis in Iraq. It has prompted a backlash from Iran, which has supported Maliki by seeking to restrain Sadr and to prevent a vote of no confidence. This backgrounder explores the possible calculus and responses of Sadr, Iran, and Maliki as Iraq's governmental stalemate continues to drag on.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Regional Cooperation, Governance, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

54. Political Update: The Hashemi Verdict the Health of Democracy in Iraq

Author:
Stephen Wicken
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
On Sunday, Iraqs Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi was sentenced to death by hanging after he and his son-in-law were convicted of organizing the murders of a security official and a lawyer. All told, Hashemi is subject to more than 150 charges of terrorism based upon allegations that he used death squads to target his political opponents. The verdict carries distressing implications for short-term domestic security in Iraq and for diplomatic relations with neighboring Turkey, where Hashemi currently resides and has been based since his trial began. While some observers view the case against Hashemi in purely sectarian terms, the targeting of a Sunni politician in a Shiite-led state, the sentence in fact highlights the pernicious nature of personal rivalries within Iraqi politics. Further, it demonstrates the politicization of the Iraqi judicial system under Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who has commandeered Iraq's legal institutions in order to consolidate power around his inner circle.
Topic:
Democratization, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

55. The Islamic State of Iraq and the 'Destroying the Walls' Campaign

Author:
Sam Wyer
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Since the withdrawal of U.S. Forces from Iraq in December 2011, the rate and lethality of attacks against civilian targets have steadily risen. Most notably, there have been seven major attack waves, defined here as a series of simultaneous and coordinated attacks that target at least 10 cities within one day. The attacks targeted a combination of security posts, government facilities, and Shi'ite shrines and neighborhoods. The Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), an umbrella organization formed in 2006 for many Sunni insurgency groups including al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), has claimed credit for a large majority of these attacks.3 This summer has seen a further alarming development with the announcement of ISI's "Destroying the Walls" campaign.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

56. The Struggle for Syria in 2011

Author:
Joseph Holliday
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
This paper provides context for understanding the cycles of violence in Syria. The first section provides a brief historical overview of sectarianism in Syria in order to understand its role in the current conflict. The second section provides a framework for understanding the operations and strategy of the Assad regime. The paper then analyzes regime security operations in seven regions: Dera'a province; Damascus; Homs and Hama in central Syria; the coastal region; Idlib province; the Arab east; and the Kurdish northeast. The paper concludes with an examination of regional and international responses to the conflict.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Armed Struggle, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

57. Baghdad's Wary Support for the Syrian Status Quo

Author:
Sean Kane and Elie Abouaoun
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Iraq's reaction to the popular uprising in Syria is mostly determined by the chaos its Shiite-led government believes would follow the sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Baghdad possesses limited ability to influence the course of events in Syria, but is using this to provide modest support to the Assad regime. The fractured and sectarian nature of Iraqi politics, however, militates against Baghdad developing a decisive position on the way forward in Syria.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

58. Egypt's Imperiled Transition: Pakistan on the Nile?

Author:
Michele Dunne
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As Egypt prepares to hold its first post-Tahrir elections, the transitional military government is trying to turn de facto influence into de jure powers written into the new constitution, such as freedom from civilian control over senior appointments and budgetary oversight. While most political parties have agreed not to challenge the extensive influence and economic perquisites of the military for now—understanding that full civilian oversight might take years to achieve—allowing the military to formalize such powers would create enormous new obstacles to eventual democratization. Egypt is now in danger of producing a post-revolutionary system similar to that of Pakistan, where elected civilian institutions are relatively powerless while unelected and unaccountable military and intelligence services actually run the country, fanning the flames of sectarianism and terrorism.
Topic:
Democratization, Terrorism, Sectarianism, and Political Power Sharing
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Middle East

59. Iran, the Shia Crescent and the Arab Uprising

Author:
Atilla Sandıklı and Emin Salihi
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
With the Arab Spring, the nature of the ruling parties has changed and the authoritarian regimes have started to be dethroned in the Middle East. These have resulted in a transformation process in the political geography of the region. The ruling parties in the Middle East that had been at the hands of a small elite or a certain sectarian groups for a long period of time have changed hands as a result of people’s movements or they have been forced to make reforms in the direction of democratization. The Shia Crescent, which has prospered with the rise of the Shia factor and become more apparent, has come to be a crucial dynamic for Iran’s clout in the region. The report “Iran, the Shia Crescent and the Arab Spring” mainly focuses on these issues: Iran’s foreign policy line as of 1979, the Shia factors in Middle Eastern countries, Iran’s influence on these factors, and Tehran’s attitudes and the movements in the face of the rebel movements in the Arab world. Moreover, the report assesses Iran’s reactions to the people’s movements in the Arab countries along with its aims in the direction of the Shia Crescent. Within this scope, it analyses Tehran’s different stance towards the rebellion that has erupted against the Syria’s ruling party, the Nusayris [Alawis], and how iTehranhas supported the current regime in Damascus.
Topic:
Religion, Sectarianism, Social Movement, Arab Spring, and Shia
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Arab Countries

60. What are Kurds and Zazas Thinking About? A Look to the Shared Values and Symbols

Author:
Salih Akyürek
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
Abstract:
Today, it is not the demands and choices of the people who are personally at the heart of the problems in southeastern Anatolia that have come to the agenda, but instead the thoughts and demands of the third-persons or people speaking on behalf of people. This, in turn, results in the issue losing its essence, a high tension between different ethnic groups and drags Turkey into a struggle and a polarization period. The easiest way to overcome this problem is to directly search the opinions of the people in the region, not the people who speak on behalf of them. Therefore, taking a fresh look at the existing problem with field researches and direct knowledge from the local community will provide more realistic information for the accurate strategies and solution proposals of the future. Recently, a confederative proposal of rights called “Democratic Autonomy” (collected under eight main topics) has come onto agenda and has been discussed as a claim for the Kurdish people’s views and demands. According to some estimates, this proposal of rights is useful to be discussed but also there are other considerations believing that it just establishes a ground for the separation of the country. Before arguing on the current demands, one has to prove whether or not these demands are really the Kurdish demands. Another issue is to find out what are the real Kurdish demands and expectations and to generate some solution strategies concerning this problem. At this point, once more, one needs to underline the importance of field work which designate the problems and set the expectations.
Topic:
Democratization, Sectarianism, Minorities, Kurds, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East